Left Behind: Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in the Midst of HIV/AIDS

This paper provides evidence on how adverse health conditions affect the transfer of human capital from one generation to the next. We explore the differential exposure to HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa as a substantial health shock to both household and community environment. We utilize the recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that provide information on mother’s HIV status and enable us to link mothers and their children. The data also allow us to distinguish between two separate channels that are likely to differentially affect the intergenerational transfers: mother’s HIV status and community HIV prevalence. First, we find that mothers transfer 37% of their human capital to their children in the developing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. Second, our results show that mother's HIV status has large detrimental effect on inheritability of human capital. HIV-infected mothers are 30% less likely to transfer their human capital to their children. Finally, focusing only on non-infected mothers and their children, we find that HIV prevalence in the community also significantly impairs the intergenerational human capital transfers even if mother is HIV negative. The findings of this paper is particularly distressing for these already poor, HIV-torn countries as in the future they will have even lower overall level of human capital due to the epidemic.HIV/AIDS, intergenerational transmission, human capital investment

Left Behind: Intergenerational Transmission of Human Captial in the Midst of HIV/AIDS

HIV/AIDS, Intergenerational Transmission; Human Capital Investment; JEL: O12, I1, I2

HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys

The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. A recent paper by Young (2005), however, suggests that similar to the "Black Death" episode in Europe, HIV/AIDS will actually lead to higher growth per capita among the a affected African countries. Not only will population decline, behavioral responses in fertility will reinforce this decline by reducing the willingness to engage in unprotected sex. We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility.HIV/AIDS, fertility, economic development

Where does Capital Flow? A Comparison of U.S. States and EU Countries 1950-2000

We find that the United States in the 1950s and 1960s was characterized by strong "catch-up growth" in the south with capital owing from rich northern states to poorer southern states - consistent with the predictions of the simple neoclassical model. After the 1970s, "catch-up growth" is mainly over in the United States and capital is owing to productive (rich) states. For Europe, we find that capital has been owing from the richer countries to the poorer countries since the 1970s with no signs yet of the "catch-up" phase having run its course, except for the country of Ireland.european capital markets, regional capital flows, institutions, regulations, Kalemli-Ozcan, Sorensen, Turan

HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys

The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. A recent paper by Young (2005), however, suggests that similar to the "Black Death" episode in Europe, HIV/AIDS will actually lead to higher growth per capita among the affected African countries. Not only will population decline, behavioral responses in fertility will reinforce this decline by reducing the willingness to engage in unprotected sex. We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys which link an individual woman's fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility.

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age-specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country-region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub-Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Lt

HIV and fertility revisited

Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variations in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off.HIV/AIDS Fertility Development

An Analysis of Citizen Satisfaction With Education Services In Turkey

In this paper, we investigate the evolution and determinants of citizen satisfaction with education services in Turkey using Life Satisfaction Surveys for the period between 2004 and 2015. In this period, the overall satisfaction with education services increase from 55.09% to 61.72%. Regression analysis reveals that, while age, being employed and being married are positively associated with satisfaction, education and income are negatively associated. We also find that, the increase in the frequency of reporting problems from sub-categories of educations services decreases overall the satisfaction with education services. Finally, problems related to registration, quality of education and attitudes of teachers are the most important sub-categories that negatively affect the satisfaction with education services.Bu çalışmada 2004-2015 yıllarına ait Yaşam Memnuniyeti Araştırması kullanılarak eğitim hizmetlerinden vatandaş memnuniyetinin gelişimi ve bu memnuniyetin belirleyicileri incelenmektedir. Bu dönemde eğitim hizmetlerinden memnuniyet %55,09’dan %61,72’e çıkarak %12 oranında artmıştır. Regresyon analizinin bulguları, yaş ile bir işte çalışmanın ve evli olmanın eğitim hizmetlerinden memnuniyeti olumlu yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Öte yandan, eğitim düzeyi veya gelir seviyesini yükselmesi durumunda eğitim hizmetlerinden memnuniyet negatif yönde değişmektedir. Son olarak, eğitim hizmetlerinin alt alanlarındaki sorun görme sıklığı arttıkça eğitim hizmetlerinden memnuniyet düşmektedir. Eğitim hizmetlerinden memnuniyeti olumsuz olarak etkileyen en önemli faktörler sırasıyla kayıt işlemlerinin sorunlu olması, eğitimin kalitesinin düşük olması ve öğretmenlerin yaklaşımının sorunlu olmasıdır

Perceptions of plain packaging and health warnings among university students in Turkey: a survey-based experiment

Abstract Background Cigarette pack design plays a crucial role in attracting customers, especially when other marketing methods are limited by policy. University students who engage in casual smoking take the risk of developing an addiction. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of plain packaging (PP) and graphic health warnings (GHWs) on cigarette packages on three outcome variables (negative affect, avoidant responses, and intentions to quit) among ever-smoker university students in Ankara, Turkey, where youth smoking prevalence is high. Methods An online survey-based experiment was used to collect data. The respondents were randomly assigned to one of the five conditions that contained images of cigarette packs with specific design elements. Regression analyses (n = 623) were used to compare across conditions and to estimate the effects of combined warnings (versus text-only warnings), stronger GHWs (versus old GHWs), and PP (versus branded packages) on the outcome variables, accounting for potential confounders. Results Stronger GHWs generated more negative affect (0.31 points out of 5, p = 0.010) and avoidant responses (0.42 points out of 5, p = 0.002) than old warnings (when brand logos were visible). Plain packages generated more negative affect (0.48 points out of 5, p < 0.001) and avoidant responses (0.46 points out of 5, p = 0.001) than branded packages (with old warnings). Disentangling the effects of PP and new GHWs revealed that neither had individual differential effect on intentions to quit within 6 months. Conclusions Although no differential effect of PP or harsher GHWs was found on intentions to quit when respondents were exposed to images on screen, both design elements were found to be effective in generating negative affect and avoidant responses. More work is needed to design effective tobacco control measures among youth during critical years of tertiary education

First report on the molecular detection, phylogeny, virological and pathological investigations of Avibacterium paragallinarum in chickens in Turkey

Avibacterium paragallinarum is an important pathogen affecting the respiratory tract of chickens. There is a paucity of information on the molecular characteristics and pathology of A. paragallinarum in Turkish poultry flocks. In the present study, broiler and layer flocks (n = 2) suspected of viral infections with serious respiratory signs and significant mortality were visited. Chickens showed various disease signs and necropsy lesions, including purulent nasal discharge, respiratory distress, facial edema, sticky eyes, mucoid tracheitis, hemorrhagic inflammation of the infraorbital sinuses along with fibrinous mass and conjunctivitis. Histopathological lesions included loss of cilia along with necrosis and exfoliation of the superficial mucosal epithelium of the trachea, facial cellulitis, dermatitis, fibrinous plasmatic edema and infiltration of inflammatory cells, especially heterophils. A. paragallinarum was detected in tissue samples by species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the core region of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene revealed that Turkish strains detected here belonged to serotype A (serovar A1). They were related to strains reported from India (VRDC), the United States (0083), and Japan (0221), which are representatives of serovar A1. A homology of 88-90% was found between Indian strains and the Turkish strains detected in this study. Surprisingly, only vaccine strains of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) were detected as a co-infecting agent in all samples positive for A. paragallinarum. Our findings suggest that A. paragallinarum may be an emerging pathogen in Turkish poultry flocks, and direct PCR may facilitate rapid diagnosis of infectious coryza. These results will also help to develop control strategies for A. paragallinarum