Measuring farmers’ risk and uncertainty attitudes: an interval prospect experiment

Attitudes to risk have generated a lot of attention over the years due to its vital importance in decision-making processes that are necessary for life and livelihoods. Attitudes towards uncertainty have received less attention even though arguably most important decisions are under uncertainty rather than risk. In addition, many studies modelling attitudes to risk have adopted experiments that place significant cognitive burden on respondents. Crucially, they are also framed in a way that do not reflect everyday problems. Specifically, the most common way of eliciting attitudes is to ask decision makers to choose between discrete monetary lotteries with known probabilities attached to the payoffs. Yet, arguably, the vast majority of choices that people make in their day-to-day lives are with respect to continuous non-monetary outcomes. To address these gaps, this thesis investigates responses to continuous ‘prospects’ across different conditions (risk & uncertainty), contexts (monetary & time) and content domains (gain, loss & mixed). Further, this thesis examines the link between attitudes to risk/uncertainty and mental health related factors and the effect of attitudes to risk and uncertainty on farmers’ decisions both for themselves and for others. This thesis uses both non-parametric methods - relating to the patterns that characterise participants’ choices and their determinants; and parametric models – based upon cumulative prospect theory (CPT) as it extends to continuous prospects. The data were gathered using lab-in-field experiments in which Nigerian farmer’s chose between pairs of prospects with continuous distributions, which were not exclusively monetary in nature. Attitudes towards risk, as opposed to uncertainty were elicited by specifying that all outcomes over the specified interval were ‘equally likely’ (thus a uniform probability density). Uncertainty was specified by indicating to farmers that one outcome within the specified interval would be realised but without the specification of an associated probability density. Key findings are that attitudes differ under different conditions, contexts and content domains. Using continuous prospects, respondents did not treat equally likely outcomes as ‘equally likely’ and appear to demonstrate cumulative probability distribution warping consistent with the CPT. However, there were behaviours that are difficult to reconcile with CPT such as the preferences of many respondents could only be modelled using “extreme curvature” of the value function. This was induced by what we term negligible gain avoidance (i.e. avoiding prospects with zero lower bound in the gain domain) or negligible loss seeking (i.e. preferring prospects with zero upper bound in the loss domain) behaviours. CPT, Salience theory, Heuristics and other theories examined in this study could not alone explain these behaviours. Results from investigating the effect of bipolar disorder tendencies (BD) on risk attitudes show that BD significantly affects the shape of the value and probability weighting functions; and farmers that have BD are more likely to make random choices. Other results show that risk aversion for losses increases participation in off-farm income generating activities; and that farmers’ likelihood to engage in specific types of offfarm activities is determined by their risk and uncertainty attitudes

Determinants of consumer acceptance of meat analogues: Exploring measures of risk preferences in predicting consumption

There are perceptions that meat alternatives carry risks similar to other novel foods. These perceptions are barriers to its acceptance by meat consumers. Previous studies reported an association between risk attitudes and consumer food choices on the one hand and consumption decisions on the other. Thus, this paper extends the investigation to whether consumers' risk preferences and perceptions influence the intent to try and the intent to accept meat analogues. Risk preferences were elicited by a self-reported and a lottery-style hybrid experiment framed as food and non-food context. We surveyed Chinese meat consumers and analysed the data using probit regression. We find that different factors explain the intent to try meat analogues for the first time and the intent to repeat consuming meat analogues. Specifically, the results show that the main determinants of the intent to try meat analogues were consumers' risk attitudes toward foods in general, new foods specifically and food nutrient composition. As expected, respondents who reported being one of the first to try new foods are more likely to have the intent to try meat analogues for the first time. In addition, we find that the greater the risk perceived from eating new foods, the less likely the intent to try meat analogues. Also, having the intent to try meat analogues decreases with nutritional uncertainties. On the other hand, the intent to repeat consuming meat analogues was influenced by attitude to food safety. The less respondents are bothered about food safety, the greater the chances they would have the intent to repeat consuming meat analogues. We conclude that different barriers need to be overcome for people to try meat analogues from those required to sustain consumption

FACTORS INFLUENCING ADOPTION DECISIONS OF MAIZE FARMERS IN NIGERIA

The needs to develop improved varieties of maize have been in the heart of various researchers and institutions in Nigeria because of its strategic role in tackling food insecurity and poverty. Despite substantial efforts to improve maize varieties, the level of adoption of improved maize varieties (IMV) in Nigeria in still very low. Although previous adoption studies have indicated a number of socioeconomic and institutional/organizational variables as important factors influencing adoption of improved maize (crop) varieties in the country, whether these factors are the main issues of concern, and whether the inclusion of regional/agro-ecological variables in adoption model are also important in explaining what could drive farmers’ adoption behaviour requires investigation. This study therefore examined factors influencing adoption of IMV among farmers in Nigeria using a selected portion of the Nigeria Living Standard Measurement Survey data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank for 2010/2011 cropping season with descriptive statistics and probit model as tools for data analysis. The results suggest, in line with some previous studies, that farm size, education level of farmers and access to extension services would significantly influence adoption of IMV. The results also indicate that farmers across the entire agro-ecological regions of country share some negative sentiments regarding adoption of IMV. Renewed emphasis on interventions that would enable farmers gain more access to farmland, and promote formal education and extension service are advocated. An attempt to incorporate variables that capture farmers’ perception/experience on agroclimatic/ ecologically related concerns in adoption study could aid better understand of what drives farmers’ adoption decisions across the country especially in the light of the emerging climate change issues and its implication on food production

FACTORS INFLUENCING ADOPTION DECISIONS OF MAIZE FARMERS IN NIGERIA

The needs to develop improved varieties of maize have been in the heart of various researchers and institutions in Nigeria because of its strategic role in tackling food insecurity and poverty. Despite substantial efforts to improve maize varieties, the level of adoption of improved maize varieties (IMV) in Nigeria in still very low. Although previous adoption studies have indicated a number of socioeconomic and institutional/organizational variables as important factors influencing adoption of improved maize (crop) varieties in the country, whether these factors are the main issues of concern, and whether the inclusion of regional/agro-ecological variables in adoption model are also important in explaining what could drive farmers’ adoption behaviour requires investigation. This study therefore examined factors influencing adoption of IMV among farmers in Nigeria using a selected portion of the Nigeria Living Standard Measurement Survey data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank for 2010/2011 cropping season with descriptive statistics and probit model as tools for data analysis. The results suggest, in line with some previous studies, that farm size, education level of farmers and access to extension services would significantly influence adoption of IMV. The results also indicate that farmers across the entire agro-ecological regions of country share some negative sentiments regarding adoption of IMV. Renewed emphasis on interventions that would enable farmers gain more access to farmland, and promote formal education and extension service are advocated. An attempt to incorporate variables that capture farmers’ perception/experience on agro-climatic/ ecologically related concerns in adoption study could aid better understand of what drives farmers’ adoption decisions across the country especially in the light of the emerging climate change issues and its implication on food production

Nepalese farmers’ perceptions of nitrogen inputs and attitudes to soil management: Implications for soil health and environmentally sustainable farming

Across Nepal, there is a decline in soil health. Thus, soils in Nepal requires effective management to ensure its sustainability. The success of these strategies is contingent upon understanding farmers' perceptions, opinions, and attitudes towards maintaining soil health. This paper investigates the current soil management practices, farmers' perceptions of soil nutrient use in relation to soil fertility, yield, and environmental impact, attitudes to soil management, and how these differ by personal and economic characteristics. The result is based on a survey of 300 Nepalese farmers. The findings are that there is a prevalence of practices such as puddling, deep tillage, and broadcasting without incorporation. Over 60% of farmers do not consciously consider the weather or environmental impact in soil management decisions. Financial returns are a significant motivating factor for changing current soil and crop management practices for many farmers. Further, the results highlight a perception amongst a larger proportion of farmers that compared to synthetic fertiliser; manure enhances soil fertility, increases crop yield, and does less harm to biodiversity. The potential for overuse and environmental pollution from misperception around manure are supported by the findings in this paper. The regression results indicate that farmers who perceive different nitrogen inputs as increasing yield, the quality of the harvest, or harming the soil, and those who manage their soil depending on the weather with considerations for the environment tend to use less nitrogen inputs. The paper highlights aspects of farming practices, opinions, and attitudes that can be improved to maintain healthy soils