Entry and Exit Dynamics of 'Excessive Deficits' in the European Union

The extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated issues in recent years. However, very little has been contributed about their dynamics . Yet, the issue of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits will be critical in the European monetary union since the Stability and Growth Pact rules out deficits larger than 3 percent of GDP, except under strictly defined unusual conditions. This paper provides a transition data analysis of the dynamics of public deficits. It shows the asymmetric role pl a yed by the economic determinants in theses dynamics and estimates the evolution of the probability of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits for each one of the member states of the European Union since 1970. It also reveals how the concurrence of some minor changes may produce a major switchover in public finance outcomes. Finally, it points to the fragility of some countries even if they are now out of excessive deficits.Fiscal policy, European Monetary Union, Duration Models

Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union

Using an extended data set of EU countries ranging from 1971-2006 and relevant econometric methods, we investigate the economic, political, and institutional determinants of government deficits in the EU. The results show a strong opportunistic behaviour of policymakers which leads to political business cycles. We find that political fragmentation does not play a significant role in government deficits. Partisan behaviour has a weak effect. The stability of the government has a significant negative impact on the size of the budget deficit. The paper also shows the significant effects of the Maastricht Treaty on fiscal consolidation.fiscal policy, European Monetary Union

Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics

The extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated issues in recent years. However, much less has been contributed about their dynamics. Yet, the issue of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits is critical in the Economic and Monetary Union since the Stability and Growth Pact rules out deficits larger than 3 percent of GDP, unless countries face strictly defined unusual conditions. This paper provides a transition data analysis of the dynamics of public deficits. It shows the asymmetric role played by the economic determinants in these dynamics and estimates the evolution of the probability of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits for every individual member state of the European Union that signed the Maastricht Treaty, since 1970. It also reveals how the concurrence of some minor changes may produce a major switchover in public finance outcomes. Finally, it analyses the evolution over time of the probabilities that countries will enter or escape from the state of having excessive deficit, and hence the fragility of some countries even if they are now out of excessive deficits.fiscal policy, Economic and Monetary Union, duration models

Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

This paper examines the effect of sectoral demand for military expenditure on the peace dividend between Greece and Turkey by employing a multi region dynamic CGE model. A general purpose of the study is to examine the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey become a member state for the EU. This would expected to create a peace between the two countriesin, hence a possible cut back on military expenditure. The model allows to analyse several scenarios; a positive scenario is a certain amount of reduction on Military Expenditure/GDP (ME/GDP) ratios. This may cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures. This re-allocation scenarios may effect the sectoral distributýon and a higher GDP growth, higher private consumption, lower unemployment, lower interst rates, economic stability and increased FDI for Turkey and improved BoP in both countries in a different level. The economic stability and some spillover effects are some other economic benefits to the EU.CGE, dynamic CGE, Greece, Turkey, military expenditure

Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union: A Dynamic Random Coefficient Approach

This paper formulates a dynamic Random Coefficient Model (RCM) to consider a set of popular determinants of public deficits in the EU-15 over the period 1971-2006, both at a country-specific level and from a population-wide perspective. Although the extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated macroeconomic issues in recent times, the models trying to capture the explanatory powers driving these deficits typically estimate models that pose the strict assumption of homogeneity on the coefficients over all countries in the model. The sensibility of this assumption will be investigated, with results showing that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity leads to an improvement in the model fit and provides additional information to nuance the effects of the explanatory variables. In this way, the paper exposes a limited degree of partisanship over all countries under consideration, but on the other hand provides evidence for opportunistic behaviour of policymakers in the major part of the sample. The effect of institutional changes following the enforcement of the Maastricht Treaty varies over the countries and is related to the necessity of budgetary consolidation.fiscal policy, European Monetary Union, Random Coefficient Model, Bayesian Analysis

Entry and Exit Dynamics of 'Excessive Deficits' in the European Union

The extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated issues in recent years. However, very little has been contributed about their dynamics . Yet, the issue of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits will be critical in the European monetary union since the Stability and Growth Pact rules out deficits larger than 3 percent of GDP, except under strictly defined unusual conditions. This paper provides a transition data analysis of the dynamics of public deficits. It shows the asymmetric role pl a yed by the economic determinants in theses dynamics and estimates the evolution of the probability of entering into and exiting from excessive deficits for each one of the member states of the European Union since 1970. It also reveals how the concurrence of some minor changes may produce a major switchover in public finance outcomes. Finally, it points to the fragility of some countries even if they are now out of excessive deficits

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN EU MEMBER STATES: A SURVEY

The accession of twelve Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) to the European Union (in 2004 and 2007) has given rise to new challenges in evaluating the effects of integration, for both the old and the new member states. These issues can only be addressed in a consistent, economy-wide framework, given that the institutional and economic changes implied by the membership process produce numerous, dynamic and complex interactions between the economic agents and sectors. Applied general equilibrium offers such a framework. This paper reviews the existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for the Central and Eastern European EU member states.General equilibrium, EU, CEEC, integration

Welfare impacts of road construction using a public-private partnership : a CGE analysis of a project

The Azorean Government embarked on a public-private partnership to build a road on the island of São Miguel, to circumvent the budget restriction imposed by the central government. We build a sequentially dynamic general equilibrium model with 45 sectors to measure the welfare changes arising from the project. The initial investment is amortised over a period and the payments are simulated through an increase in income taxes, reduction in transfer payments or calculating the fall in transport margins. We find that under any type of repayment scheme the welfare benefits do not justify the road construction thus making it a poor investment decision.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns.Economics Models. ,Trade liberalization. ,Foreign trade Mathematical models. ,Agricultural trade. ,TMD ,

Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in the European Union: a dynamic random coefficient approach

This paper formulates a dynamic Random Coefficient Model (RCM) to consider a set of popular determinants of public deficits in the EU-15 over the period 1971-2006, both at a country-specific level and from a population-wide perspective. Although the extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated macroeconomic issues in recent times, the models trying to capture the explanatory powers driving these deficits typically estimate models that pose the strict assumption of homogeneity on the coefficients over all countries in the model. The sensibility of this assumption will be investigated, with results showing that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity leads to an improvement in the model fit and provides additional information to nuance the effects of the explanatory variables. In this way, the paper exposes a limited degree of partisanship over all countries under consideration, but on the other hand provides evidence for opportunistic behaviour of policymakers in the major part of the sample. The effect of institutional changes following the enforcement of the Maastricht Treaty varies over the countries and is related to the necessity of budgetary consolidation