Increased climate seasonality during the late glacial in the Gebel Akhdar, Libya

Oxygen isotope analysis (δ18O) of caprine and bovine tooth enamel carbonates from the Haua Fteah cave (Gebel Akhdar massif, northeast Libya) reveals significant differences in palaeoseasonality during the last c. 70 ka. Data indicate different phases of human occupation of the region occurred under notably different climatic conditions. During the last glacial period, prior to the Last Glacial Maximum, a gradual increase in climate aridity occurred. This was followed in the late glacial (c. 16.6–14.7 ka) by considerably more arid conditions and much greater climate seasonality, which was likely produced by changing winter precipitation amounts and a strengthening of arid summer air masses. The high seasonality in the late glacial coincides with a period when human activity at the Haua Fteah greatly intensified. Significant changes in subsistence strategies and the seasonal exploitation of food resources also occurred at this time. The results presented here suggest that changes in the seasonal climate may have affected the seasonal supply of floral and faunal resources available to local human populations at the time, which resulted in changing subsistence practices

Pleistocene and Holocene palaeoclimates in the Gebel Akhdar (Libya) estimated using herbivore tooth enamel oxygen isotope compositions

The palaeoclimate of the Gebel Akhdar massif, in Cyrenaica, northeast Libya, is investigated using the stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) of herbivore tooth enamel from the archaeological faunal assemblages of the Haua Fteah and Hagfet ed Dabba caves. Samples accumulated through human activity at the sites, thus climatic interpretations are in direct chronological association with periods of human presence in the local landscape. Wild Ammotragus lervia (Barbary sheep) and Bos sp. (auroch), and domestic Ovis sp. and Capra sp. from the Levalloiso-Mousterian (≥73.3–43.5 ka) to the Neolithic (∼9.3–5.4 ka) cultural phases are analysed. Results indicate that the most arid environment represented by the samples occurred at ∼32 ka, when populations associated with Dabban lithic assemblages were present within the region. Climatic instability increased during oxygen isotope stage 2. Consistent with other palaeoenvironmental investigations in the Gebel Akhdar, there is no evidence for hyper-arid events during the last glacial and surface water, most probably in the form of local springs, was available throughout the time periods considered. Overall, results indicate that different cultural groups occupied the Gebel Akhdar landscape under different climatic conditions, but that climate variations appear to have been of lower magnitude than those that occurred at inland North African locations. These reconstructions provide further support to the theory that the Gebel Akhdar may have served as a refugium for human populations in North Africa during times of global climatic extremes

Time series analysis of the Bacillus subtilis sporulation network reveals low dimensional chaotic dynamics

Chaotic behavior refers to a behavior which, albeit irregular, is generated by an underlying deterministic process. Therefore, a chaotic behavior is potentially controllable. This possibility becomes practically amenable especially when chaos is shown to be low-dimensional, i.e., to be attributable to a small fraction of the total systems components. In this case, indeed, including the major drivers of chaos in a system into the modeling approach allows us to improve predictability of the systems dynamics. Here, we analyzed the numerical simulations of an accurate ordinary differential equation model of the gene network regulating sporulation initiation in Bacillus subtilis to explore whether the non-linearity underlying time series data is due to low-dimensional chaos. Low-dimensional chaos is expectedly common in systems with few degrees of freedom, but rare in systems with many degrees of freedom such as the B. subtilis sporulation network. The estimation of a number of indices, which reflect the chaotic nature of a system, indicates that the dynamics of this network is affected by deterministic chaos. The neat separation between the indices obtained from the time series simulated from the model and those obtained from time series generated by Gaussian white and colored noise confirmed that the B. subtilis sporulation network dynamics is affected by low dimensional chaos rather than by noise. Furthermore, our analysis identifies the principal driver of the networks chaotic dynamics to be sporulation initiation phosphotransferase B (Spo0B). We then analyzed the parameters and the phase space of the system to characterize the instability points of the network dynamics, and, in turn, to identify the ranges of values of Spo0B and of the other drivers of the chaotic dynamics, for which the whole system is highly sensitive to minimal perturbation. In summary, we described an unappreciated source of complexity in the B. subtilis sporulation network by gathering evidence for the chaotic behavior of the system, and by suggesting candidate molecules driving chaos in the system. The results of our chaos analysis can increase our understanding of the intricacies of the regulatory network under analysis, and suggest experimental work to refine our behavior of the mechanisms underlying B. subtilis sporulation initiation control

Predicting clinical diagnosis in Huntington's disease: An imaging polymarker

Objective Huntington's disease (HD) gene carriers can be identified before clinical diagnosis; however, statistical models for predicting when overt motor symptoms will manifest are too imprecise to be useful at the level of the individual. Perfecting this prediction is integral to the search for disease modifying therapies. This study aimed to identify an imaging marker capable of reliably predicting real‐life clinical diagnosis in HD. Method A multivariate machine learning approach was applied to resting‐state and structural magnetic resonance imaging scans from 19 premanifest HD gene carriers (preHD, 8 of whom developed clinical disease in the 5 years postscanning) and 21 healthy controls. A classification model was developed using cross‐group comparisons between preHD and controls, and within the preHD group in relation to “estimated” and “actual” proximity to disease onset. Imaging measures were modeled individually, and combined, and permutation modeling robustly tested classification accuracy. Results Classification performance for preHDs versus controls was greatest when all measures were combined. The resulting polymarker predicted converters with high accuracy, including those who were not expected to manifest in that time scale based on the currently adopted statistical models. Interpretation We propose that a holistic multivariate machine learning treatment of brain abnormalities in the premanifest phase can be used to accurately identify those patients within 5 years of developing motor features of HD, with implications for prognostication and preclinical trials

Digital habits of pulmonary rehabilitation service-users following the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective: We previously demonstrated low levels of digital literacy amongst pulmonary rehabilitation service-users prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to identify whether the pandemic accelerated digital literacy in this population, resulting in greater acceptance of remote web-based pulmonary rehabilitation programme models. Methods: We surveyed digital access and behaviours and pulmonary rehabilitation delivery preferences of service-users referred to pulmonary rehabilitation in 2021 (cohort 2021) and propensity score-matched them to a cohort who completed the survey in 2020 (cohort 2020). Results: There were indicators that digital access and confidence were better amongst the Cohort 2021 but no difference was seen in the proportion of patients choosing remote web-based pulmonary rehabilitation as an acceptable method of receiving pulmonary rehabilitation. Conclusion: In an unselected cohort of service-users, remote web-based pulmonary rehabilitation was considered acceptable in only a minority of patients which has implications on healthcare commissioning and delivery of pulmonary rehabilitation

Pulmonary rehabilitation in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COPD: a propensity matched real-world study

BACKGROUND: The adherence to and clinical efficacy of pulmonary rehabilitation in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), particularly in comparison to people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), remains uncertain. The objectives of this real-world study were to compare the responses of patients with IPF with a matched group of patients with COPD undergoing the same supervised, outpatient pulmonary rehabilitation program, and to determine whether pulmonary rehabilitation is associated with survival in IPF. RESEARCH QUESTION: Do people with IPF improve to the same extent with pulmonary rehabilitation as a matched group of individuals with COPD, and are non-completion of and/or non-response to pulmonary rehabilitation associated with one-year all-cause mortality in IPF? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using propensity score matching, 163 patients with IPF were matched 1:1 with a control group of 163 patients with COPD referred to pulmonary rehabilitation. We compared between-group pulmonary rehabilitation completion rates and response. Survival status in the IPF cohort was recorded over one-year following pulmonary rehabilitation discharge. Cox proportional-hazards regression explored the association between pulmonary rehabilitation status and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Similar pulmonary rehabilitation completion rates (IPF: 69%; COPD: 63%; p=0.24) and improvements in exercise response were observed in both groups with no significant mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) between-group differences in incremental shuttle walk (ISW) change (2 (-18 to 22) meters). Pulmonary rehabilitation non-completion (hazard ratio (HR) (95%CI) 5.62 (2.24 to 14.08)) and non-response (HR (95%CI) 3.91 (1.54 to 9.93)) were independently associated with increased one-year all-cause mortality in IPF. INTERPRETATION: Compared with a matched group of patients with COPD, this real-word study demonstrates that patients with IPF have similar completion rates and magnitude of response to pulmonary rehabilitation. In IPF, non-completion of and non-response to pulmonary rehabilitation were associated with increased all-cause mortality. These data reinforce the benefits of pulmonary rehabilitation in patients with IPF

The minimum clinically important difference of the incremental shuttle walk test in bronchiectasis: a prospective cohort study.

The incremental shuttle walk test (ISW) is an externally-paced field walking test that measures maximal exercise capacity1 and is widely used in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) undergoing pulmonary rehabilitation (PR). Its psychometric properties, including reliability, construct validity2 and responsiveness to intervention,2-5 have been demonstrated in patients with bronchiectasis, but little data exist on the minimum clinically important difference (MCID). Although two studies have investigated the MCID of ISW in patients with bronchiectasis, the generalisability of these data is limited because of the study sample characteristics,6 or did not involve an exercise-based intervention.2 The MCID enables clinicians and researchers to understand the clinical significance of change data and forms an important part of the evidence required by regulatory agencies for approval for use in clinical trials. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to provide MCID estimates of the ISW in response to intervention, namely PR, in patients with bronchiectasis

Change in gait speed and adverse outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Gait speed is associated with survival in individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The extent to which four-metre gait speed (4MGS) decline predicts adverse outcome in IPF remains unclear. We aimed to examine longitudinal 4MGS change and identify a cut-point associated with adverse outcome. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, we recruited 132 individuals newly diagnosed with IPF and measured 4MGS change over 6 months. Death/first hospitalization at 6 months were composite outcome events. Complete data (paired 4MGS plus index event) were available in 85 participants; missing 4MGS data were addressed using multiple imputation. Receiver-Operating Curve plots identified a 4MGS change cut-point. Cox proportional-hazard regression assessed the relationship between 4MGS change and time to event. RESULTS: 4MGS declined over 6 months (mean [95% CI] change: -0.05 [-0.09 to -0.01] m/s; p = 0.02). A decline of 0.07 m/s or more in 4MGS over 6 months had better discrimination for the index event than change in 6-minute walk distance, forced vital capacity, Composite Physiologic Index or Gender Age Physiology index. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a significant difference in time to event between 4MGS groups (substantial decline: >-0.07 m/s versus minor decline/improvers: ≤-0.07 m/s; p = 0.007). Those with substantial decline had an increased risk of hospitalization/death (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] 4.61 [1.23-15.83]). Similar results were observed in multiple imputation analysis. CONCLUSION: In newly diagnosed IPF, a substantial 4MGS decline over 6 months is associated with shorter time to hospitalization/death at 6 months. 4MGS change has potential as a surrogate endpoint for interventions aimed at modifying hospitalization/death

Assessing connectivity between an overlying aquifer and a coal seam gas resource using methane isotopes, dissolved organic carbon and tritium

Coal seam gas (CSG) production can have an impact on groundwater quality and quantity in adjacent or overlying aquifers. To assess this impact we need to determine the background groundwater chemistry and to map geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity between aquifers. In south-east Queensland (Qld), Australia, a globally important CSG exploration and production province, we mapped hydraulic connectivity between the Walloon Coal Measures (WCM, the target formation for gas production) and the overlying Condamine River Alluvial Aquifer (CRAA), using groundwater methane (CH4) concentration and isotopic composition (δ13C-CH4), groundwater tritium (3H) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. A continuous mobile CH4 survey adjacent to CSG developments was used to determine the source signature of CH4 derived from the WCM. Trends in groundwater δ13C-CH4 versus CH4 concentration, in association with DOC concentration and 3H analysis, identify locations where CH4 in the groundwater of the CRAA most likely originates from the WCM. The methodology is widely applicable in unconventional gas development regions worldwide for providing an early indicator of geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity

Minimal clinically important difference for daily pedometer step count in COPD

Original research letter to the editor.Jazz Pharmaceuticals; Mundipharma; Novartis; Pfizer; National Institute for Health Research; British Lung Foundation