Macroeconomic Impact of the Financial Crisis on Armenia

As a small, open economy with a small export sector, Armenia has experienced a large amount of stress from the financial crisis. The government exited a peg-like exchange rate regime after a drain of foreign reserves. The loss of reserves was put to loss of revenues from mining exports, but can also be put to the effects of global financial crisis on remittance inflows. Worldwide, the World Bank expects remittances to fall from US$305 billion in 2008 to$290 billion in 2009. In this paper I explore the effect of global crisis on the loss of reserves supporting the monetary system. Bank balance sheets expanded rapidly and, though small relative to GDP, accepted many assets tied to real estate. Banks� asset-liability mismatches have their root cause in changes to the flow of hard currency brought on by the crisis.Armenia; financial crisis; monetary policy; exchange rates

Southeast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2017

Steady economic growth over the next several months is expected in the Southeast Minnesota planning area according to the prediction of the Southeast Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). After two consecutive quarterly declines in the LEI, the fourth quarter leading index rose by 1.18 points as two index components recorded positive values. Increased new filings of incorporation and LLC in the Southeast Minnesota planning area and an improvement in consumer sentiment helped lift this quarter’s LEI. A lower number of residential building permits in the Rochester area and a decline in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index (which serves as a general measure of statewide business conditions) weighed on this quarter’s leading index. There were 844 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in Southeast Minnesota in the fourth quarter of 2017 — representing a 5.8 percent increase from one year ago. There were 47 new regional business incorporations in the fourth quarter, a 27.7 percent reduction from prior year levels. At a level of 528, fourth quarter new limited liability company (LLC) filings in Southeast Minnesota were 7.1 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2016. With 228 filings, new assumed name activity was 11.7 percent greater than the same quarter last year. There were 6 more new filings for Southeast Minnesota non-profit over the last three months compared to one year earlier. Fifty-nine percent of new business filers in the Southeast Minnesota planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 7.8 percent of new filers come from communities of color and 8.2 percent are veterans. Only 1.4 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 4.8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Forty-two percent of new business filings in Southeast Minnesota in this year’s fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in Southeast Minnesota have between 0 and $10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 49 new filers have revenues in excess of$50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in Southeast Minnesota are retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and nearly 50 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Employment of Southeast Minnesota residents rose by 2.3 percent over the year ending December 2017. The regional unemployment rate was 2.9 percent in December, considerably lower than the 3.6 percent level recorded one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance in December 2017 declined by 4.7 percent from one year earlier and the Southeast Minnesota labor force increased by 0.4 percent. The third quarter average weekly wage rose slightly over its level one year ago despite a statistical anomaly that caused all other planning areas’ average weekly wages to fall. The planning area’s annual bankruptcies stabilized at an historically low level. Data from the Rochester area—the largest market in Southeast Minnesota—were weaker than in recent quarters. A small increase in overall employment, increased average hourly earnings, a lower unemployment rate, and declining initial jobless claims favorably impacted the city’s outlook. On the negative side was a year-over-year decline in education/health sector employment, unchanged overall business filings, a lower valuation of residential building permits, and declining average weekly work hours

Does the business cycle impact our enrollments?

This presentation shows the relationship between unemployment rates, labor shortages, migration, and higher education enrollments

Q & A / Closing Remarks

Wrap-up of the symposium

Generalized Eulerian Numbers and Multiplex Juggling Sequences

We consider generalizations of both juggling sequences and non-attacking rook placements. We demonstrate the important connection between these objects, and also propose a generalization of the Eulerian numbers. These generalizations give rise to several interesting counting problems, which we explore

Macroeconomic Impact of the Financial Crisis on Armenia

As a small, open economy with a small export sector, Armenia has experienced a large amount of stress from the financial crisis. The government exited a peg-like exchange rate regime after a drain of foreign reserves. The loss of reserves was put to loss of revenues from mining exports, but can also be put to the effects of global financial crisis on remittance inflows. Worldwide, the World Bank expects remittances to fall from US$305 billion in 2008 to$290 billion in 2009. In this paper I explore the effect of global crisis on the loss of reserves supporting the monetary system. Bank balance sheets expanded rapidly and, though small relative to GDP, accepted many assets tied to real estate. Banks’ asset-liability mismatches have their root cause in changes to the flow of hard currency brought on by the crisis. Paper presented at the workshop The impact of global crisis on Armeniz: empirical evidence , Yerevan, Armenia, 9 July 2009

Central Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report Second Quarter 2018

Continued steady economic growth is expected in the Central Minnesota planning area over the next several months according to predictions of the Central Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The leading index rose by 1.30 points in the most recent period, with three components producing positive readings and one index value that was largely unchanged. A downturn in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index is the only LEI component to have a measurable negative reading in the second quarter. Increased St. Cloud area residential building permits contributed to this quarter’s higher LEI as did higher national durable goods orders and lower regional initial jobless claims. There were 1,580 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in Central Minnesota in the second quarter of 2018 — representing a 9.7 percent increase from one year ago. 133 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the second quarter, 10.1 percent fewer than their year ago level. New limited liability company (LLC) filings in Central Minnesota increased 10.9 percent relative to the second quarter of 2017. New assumed names totaled 436 over the recent quarter—an increase of 16 percent compared to the same period in 2017. Current quarter new filings for Central Minnesota non-profit were 1.9 percent higher than one year ago. Sixty-six percent of new business filers in the Central Minnesota planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s second quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 5 percent of new filers come from communities of color. Approximately 8.1 percent of new filings were made by military veterans. About 2.3 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 3.5 percent of new filings were made by the immigrant community. Forty percent of new business filings in Central Minnesota in this year’s second quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in Central Minnesota have between 0 and $10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 100 new filers have revenues in excess of$50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in Central Minnesota are construction, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 47.2 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Central Minnesota employment was 3.4 percent higher in June 2018 than it was one year earlier and the June regional unemployment rate was 3%--considerably lower than one year ago. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 13.9 percent lower in June than they were in the same month last year. The Central Minnesota labor force rose by 2.5 percent and average weekly wages were 3.7 percent higher than one year earlier. Regional bankruptcies have begun to rise in Central Minnesota. Economic performance in the St. Cloud area was mostly favorable. The future outlook from a survey of St. Cloud area business leaders conducted quarterly by St. Cloud State University was generally improved from one year earlier. Total new business filings of incorporation, assumed name and LLC were all higher in the St. Cloud area. Employment expanded, the unemployment rate fell, initial jobless claims were lower, the labor force increased, and median home sales prices were higher. However, average hourly earnings and hours worked were lower and the cost of living in St. Cloud inched up

Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Third Quarter 2018

Steady economic growth is expected to continue in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI decreased 1.80 points in the third quarter of 2018 as three of five index components registered negative values. A decrease in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index—a general measure of statewide business conditions—was the primary factor causing the negative reading of this quarter’s LEI. Some weakness in the initial jobless claims and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index series also weighed on the Twin Cities LEI. A pickup in residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and higher new filings of incorporation and LLC in the region each had a favorable impact on the Twin Cities LEI. There were 10,658 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the third quarter of 2018—representing a 4.3 percent increase from one year ago. 1,303 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the third quarter—4.4 percent fewer than year ago levels. Third quarter new LLC filings rose to 7,082 in the seven-county metro area—an 8.8 percent increase compared to the third quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 4.9 percent lower in the third quarter and there were 26 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s third quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 16.3 percent of new filers come from communities of color. 4.7 percent of new filings are veterans. 2.1 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 9.8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Nearly thirty-seven percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s third quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and $10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 593 new filers have revenues in excess of$50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 44.1 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 0.5 percent over the year ending September 2018. At 2.2 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was considerably lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 7.2 percent to 4,906. The rate of job vacancies per 100 unemployed workers was 186.3 as the regional (and statewide) labor shortage continued to plague Twin Cities firms. The planning area’s labor force contracted by 0.1 percent over the year ending September 2018. Average hourly earnings and average weekly work hours rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending September 2018 and the relative cost of living rose in Minneapolis, but declined in St. Paul. The number of annual bankruptcies fell in the Twin Cities

Northwest Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2018

Slower economic growth is expected in the Northwest Minnesota planning area over the next several months according to the predictions of the St. Cloud State University Northwest Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Only one of the five index components increased in the most recent quarter as the LEI fell by 3.65 points. The decline in the leading index was largely caused by a reduction in the number of residential building permits in Fargo/Moorhead and Grand Forks/East Grand Forks. Higher regional initial jobless claims and weakening in a national consumer sentiment index also weighed on the future Northwest Minnesota economic outlook. A rise in the Rural Mainstreet Index (which signals a more robust macroeconomic environment for rural America) was the only index component with a positive value in the fourth quarter. There were 1,039 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in Northwest Minnesota in the fourth quarter of 2018 — representing a 0.6 percent increase over one year ago. With 86 filings, there were 13.1 percent fewer new filings for business incorporation in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. New LLC filings in Northwest Minnesota were up 8.4 percent from one year earlier—rising to 593. New assumed name filings totaled 327 in the fourth quarter—0.3 percent fewer filings than the same period in 2017. There were 33 new filings for Northwest Minnesota non-profit in the fourth quarter—twenty-six fewer filings than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Northwest Minnesota planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in the fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 5.5 percent of new filers come from communities of color. Approximately 7.1 percent of new filers in Northwest Minnesota are veterans. About 2.7 percent of new filers come from the disability community and only 2.1 percent of new filings in Northwest Minnesota are made by the immigrant community. Forty-two percent of new business filings in Northwest Minnesota in the fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in Northwest Minnesota have between 0 and $10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 65 new filers have revenues in excess of$50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in Northwest Minnesota are construction, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, professional/scientific/technical, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 48 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Employment of Northwest Minnesota residents increased by 0.9 percent over the year ending December 2018. The regional unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in December, which was somewhat lower than the 5 percent rate observed one year ago. Initial claims for unemployment insurance in December 2018 were 3.4 percent higher than one year earlier and the Northwest Minnesota labor force increased by 0.5 percent. The average weekly wage in the Northwest Minnesota planning area was 3.8 percent higher than one year earlier. Northwest Minnesota’s total bankruptcies were 2.9 percent higher than one year ago. Economic performance in the Fargo/Moorhead Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was mostly favorable in the past quarter. This MSA tallied a small increase in overall employment (as well as job gains in the manufacturing sector), increased average hourly earnings, a rise in the value of residential building permits, a lower relative cost of living, fewer initial jobless claims, higher average weekly work hours, and a lower unemployment rate. The only negative indicators in Fargo/Moorhead were a decrease in the MSA labor force and a drop in employment in the key mining/logging/ construction sector. Economic activity in the Grand Forks/East Grand Forks MSA was mixed in the fourth quarter. Declining overall employment (and unchanged employment in the key manufacturing and mining/logging/construction sectors) and a falling labor force weighed on the area economic outlook. An increase in average hourly earnings, a rise in average weekly work hours, a lower unemployment rate, an increase in the value of residential building permits, fewer regional initial jobless claims, and a lower relative cost of living in the metro area helped lift the Grand Forks/East Grand Forks economic outlook