Effectiveness of Government Protective Policies on Rice Production in Iran

To evaluate the government intervention effects on growth of rice production in Iran, the nominal protective rate was calculated and a Nerlove supply model was applied to a time series of 1983-1998. The results showed that in the majority of these years, producers has not been supported and therefore, redirecting the rice market is recommended. In order to get more efficient approach than the government intervention, diminishing the share of the government in the market and strengthening the private sector may be listed on the top of a list that could be regarded as a plan for making rice production profitable.nominal protection rate, rice, Iran, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Economic Efficiency of Smallholder Intensive Dairy Farms in Iran: Adjusted for Market Distortion

The dairy farmers in Iran are faced with milk price distortion due to the market imperfection. To measure an unbiased farm-specific efficiency, prices should be adjusted in an imperfect market. To examine this issue, a shadow-price profit frontier was applied to a sample of 860 Iranian small intensive dairy farms surveyed in 2005-06 in order to calculate profit efficiency of individual dairy farmers. This adjusted measure was then compared with that of unadjusted measure that assumes undistorted market. A multiple general linear model (GLM) technique was applied to the data to examine the multiple effects of pure-bred animals, and the used farm capacity on profit efficiency indices. The mean value of adjusted profit efficiency was 0.40, significantly different from the latter measure, i.e. 0.72, revealing overstating efficiency by ignoring imperfect structure of market. The difference between the figures is attributed to an index of market efficiency that was estimated of 46% in average. The number of pure-bred animals in the herd was found to affect the profit efficiency indices. Regardless of their characteristics, all the farms can gain from correcting the distortion in milk market, where small and average- sized farms are domain farms in the country.profit efficiency, dairy farms, Iran, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C31, N55, Q12,

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect.Price; Geostatistical model; Kiriging; Inverse distance weighting; Winter’s method; Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system; Potatoes; Onions; Iran

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

Price, Geostatistical model, Kiriging, Inverse distance weighting, Winter’s method, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, Potatoes, Onions, Iran, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect

Adoption of New Seed Varieties Under Production Risk: An Application to Rice in Iran

This paper focuses on linkage between new rice seed varieties and production risk and also factors affecting adoption of these varieties in Iran. Farm-level data were collected from a sample of 154 rice farms located in two major districts of Fars province in Southern Iran for 2001-02. The risk-premium associated with the use of seed is estimated following by analyzing a moment-based production risk approach. The results show that the risk premium increases with new seed varieties in the lack of appropriate production conditions implying that new seed varieties is a riskincreasing input and involves a higher cost of risk. However, under suitable production conditions, the cultivation of new rice varieties on average ensures greater yield and at the same time involves less risk as measured by the risk premium. Also, results indicate that the farmer-specific relative risk premium proxies for the risk attitudes of each farmer have negative and significant effect on the decision to adopt new seed varieties. Therefore, farmers that are more riskaverse with respect to their use of seed are less likely to adopt new seed varieties and allow them to decrease their production risk arising from seed requirements

Effectiveness of Government Protective Policies on Rice Production in Iran

To evaluate the government intervention effects on growth of rice production in Iran, the nominal protective rate was calculated and a Nerlove supply model was applied to a time series of 1983-1998. The results showed that in the majority of these years, producers has not been supported and therefore, redirecting the rice market is recommended. In order to get more efficient approach than the government intervention, diminishing the share of the government in the market and strengthening the private sector may be listed on the top of a list that could be regarded as a plan for making rice production profitable

Economic Efficiency of Smallholder Intensive Dairy Farms in Iran: Adjusted for Market Distortion

The dairy farmers in Iran are faced with milk price distortion due to the market imperfection. To measure an unbiased farm-specific efficiency, prices should be adjusted in an imperfect market. To examine this issue, a shadow-price profit frontier was applied to a sample of 860 Iranian small intensive dairy farms surveyed in 2005-06 in order to calculate profit efficiency of individual dairy farmers. This adjusted measure was then compared with that of unadjusted measure that assumes undistorted market. A multiple general linear model (GLM) technique was applied to the data to examine the multiple effects of pure-bred animals, and the used farm capacity on profit efficiency indices. The mean value of adjusted profit efficiency was 0.40, significantly different from the latter measure, i.e. 0.72, revealing overstating efficiency by ignoring imperfect structure of market. The difference between the figures is attributed to an index of market efficiency that was estimated of 46% in average. The number of pure-bred animals in the herd was found to affect the profit efficiency indices. Regardless of their characteristics, all the farms can gain from correcting the distortion in milk market, where small and average- sized farms are domain farms in the country

Forecasting seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions: challenge between geostatistical models, neuro fuzzy approach and Winter method

This paper, we studied the ability of geostatistical models (ordinary kriging (OK) and Inverse distance weighting (IDW)), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Winter method for prediction of seasonality in prices of potatoes and onions in Iran over the seasonal period 1986_2001. Results show that the best estimators in order are winter method, ANFIS and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that Winter and ANFIS had powerful results for prediction the prices while geostatistical models were not useful in this respect