Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the PESETA III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the PESETA III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most rich biodiversity region in Europe. Almost half of the plants and animals and more than half of the habitats listed in the EU Habitats Directive [2] occur in the Mediterranean region. However, this reservoir of biodiversity is threatened by climate-driven habitat loss, which is one of the most serious concerns for this region [3]. The aim of this study is first to assess projected changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate domain (MCD) in Europe and its conversion into arid domain (ACD) under scenarios of climate change, and second to assess Natura 2000 sites that will be affected by these changes. We used 11 bias-adjusted Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for two representative concentration pathways’ scenarios at +4.5 W/m2 (RCP4.5) and +8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5) for three periods: 2030s, 2° C warming and 2080s. Furthermore, we analysed adaptation options and its estimated economic cost in Mediterranean Natura 2000 protected areas.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

A European map of living forest biomass and carbon stock - Executive report

Forest ecosystems have a key role in the global carbon cycle and are considered large and persistent carbon sinks. The CO2 fixed by photosynthesis is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle, and forests play a determinant role in this process. Therefore, spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon is of paramount importance for the design and implementation of effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies at the European level. The aim of this report is to present a summary of early results of the FOREST Action activities on forest biomass and carbon stock in Europe. In this report we present European-wide maps of forest biomass and carbon stock at IPCC Tier 1 level. Maps of forest biomass and carbon stock are relevant for quantifying terrestrial carbon storage and carbon sinks as well as for estimating potential emissions from land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation, reforestation), forest fragmentation and biotic (pests) and abiotic (e.g. forest fires, windstorms) disturbances. We describe the input data and approach, then present a summary examining the potential of the approach and further work as well as data needs in this field. The maps presented, implemented following the IPCC methodology, represent spatially explicit biomass and carbon stock on forested land disaggregated at 1 km x 1 km grid cells. The resulting maps represent the biomass and carbon at continental level, accounting for around 90% of the total continental amounts of biomass and carbon reported in the FAO’s Global Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) and State of Europe’s Forest report from the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forest in Europe (MCPFE). To account for regional discrepancies the maps were then adjusted to match FRA amounts of biomass and carbon at the country level. This report will be followed by an extended report including methodological details of the approach implemented.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Building a monitoring system for the EU bioeconomy

The new EU Bioeconomy Strategy, adopted in 2018 is more relevant within the actual political, environmental and social context than ever before. In these times of acute awareness of global climate change impacts and related challenges for sustainable development, the EU Bioeconomy is perceived a crucial stepping stone to changing our whole development paradigm and to trigger systemic change. Bioeconomy is intended to contribute to the decarbonisation of our economy, to catalyse changes in consumer habits and will modernise our industries throughout the value chain. But is it all good? At what cost to primary productions systems? Can the bioeconomy really deliver on its promises while ensuring biodiversity enhancement and the improvement of our planet’s overall health? To what extent will societies benefit from a transition from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy? This document describes the first year of the development of the EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) in collaboration with experts throughout European and International organisations, EU Member States, Commission Services and other stakeholders to assess questions such as those posed above. The framework is designed to house several basic indicators that are, analogous to the instruments of a symphony, in themselves useful and meaningful but whose value is enhanced once they are placed within an orchestra. Only when the indicators interplay jointly the ensemble is capable of estimating the progress of EU bioeconomy and its contribution towards the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting related trade-offs and synergies. In this first year, the development of the monitoring system has focused on structuring the framework, thus creating a better understanding of the bioeconomy as it is presented in various sources at national, EU and international levels. Criteria have been established to assess indicator quality, which is relevant to the final decision on indicator inclusion. This document represents a status report on the development of the EU-wide monitoring system for the Bioeconomy and by no means does it constitute the finished work. Comments are always welcome, please write to: [email protected]

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe

The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Mapping and assessment of forest ecosystems and their services - Applications and guidance for decision making in the framework of MAES

The aim of this report is to illustrate by means of a series of case studies the implementation of mapping and assessment of forest ecosystem services in different contexts and geographical levels. Methodological aspects, data issues, approaches, limitations, gaps and further steps for improvement are analysed for providing good practices and decision making guidance. The EU initiative on Mapping and Assessment of the state of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES), with the support of all Member States, contributes to improve the knowledge on ecosystem services. MAES is one of the building-block initiatives supporting the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Climate impacts in Europe

The study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas. Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical north-south divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services: An EU ecosystem assessment

This report presents an ecosystem assessment covering the total land area of the EU as well as the EU marine regions. The assessment is carried out by Joint Research Centre, European Environment Agency, DG Environment, and the European Topic Centres on Biological Diversity and on Urban, Land and Soil Systems. This report constitutes a knowledge base which can support the evaluation of the 2020 biodiversity targets. It also provides a data foundation for future assessments and policy developments, in particular with respect to the ecosystem restoration agenda for the next decade (2020-2030). The report presents an analysis of the pressures and condition of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems using a single, comparable methodology based on European data on trends of pressures and condition relative to the policy baseline 2010. The following main conclusions are drawn: - Pressures on ecosystems exhibit different trends. - Land take, atmospheric emissions of air pollutants and critical loads of nitrogen are decreasing but the absolute values of all these pressures remain too high. - Impacts from climate change on ecosystems are increasing. - Invasive alien species of union concern are observed in all ecosystems, but their impact is particularly high in urban ecosystems and grasslands. - Pressures from overfishing activities and marine pollution are still high. - In the long term, air and freshwater quality is improving. - In forests and agroecosystems, which represent over 80% of the EU territory, there are improvements in structural condition indicators (biomass, deadwood, area under organic farming) relative to the baseline year 2010 but some key bio-indicators such as tree-crown defoliation continue to increase. This indicates that ecosystem condition is not improving. - Species-related indicators show no progress or further declines, particularly in agroecosystems. The analysis of trends in ecosystem services concluded that the current potential of ecosystems to deliver timber, protection against floods, crop pollination, and nature-based recreation is equal to or lower than the baseline value for 2010. At the same time, the demand for these services has significantly increased. A lowered potential in combination with a higher demand risks to further decrease the condition of ecosystems and their contribution to human well-being. Despite the wide coverage of environmental legislation in the EU, there are still large gaps in the legal protection of ecosystems. On land, 76% of the area of terrestrial ecosystems, mainly forests, agroecosystems and urban ecosystems, are excluded from a legal designation under the Bird and Habitat Directives. Freshwater and marine ecosystems are subject to specific protection measures under the Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. The condition of ecosystems that are under legal designation is unfavourable. More efforts are needed to bend the curve of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and to put ecosystems on a path to recovery. The progress that is made in certain areas such as pollution reduction, increasing air and water quality, increasing share of organic farming, the expansion of forests, and the efforts to maintain marine fish stocks at sustainable levels show that a persistent implementation of policies can be effective. These successes should encourage us to act now and to put forward an ambitious plan for the restoration of Europe’s ecosystems.JRC.D.3-Land Resource

Alpine tundra contraction under future warming scenarios in Europe

The alpine tundra is the highest elevation belt of high mountains. This zone is an important reservoir of freshwater and provides habitat to unique species. This study assesses projected changes in the areal extent of the alpine tundra climate zone in three warming levels in European mountains. The alpine tundra was delineated using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. We used 11 regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX disaggregated at a one-kilometre grid size representing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the 1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming levels. Mitigation represented by the 1.5 °C warming level reduces projected losses of the alpine tundra. However, even in this warming level the projected contraction is severe. In this case, the contraction in the Alps, Scandes and Pyrenees together is projected at between 44% and 48% of the present extent. The contraction is projected to climb in the 2 °C warming to above 57%, while the 3 °C warming would imply that the alpine tundra will be near to collapse in Europe with a contraction of 84% in the three regions, which host most of the alpine tundra in Europe. The projected changes have negative implications for a range of ecosystem services and biodiversity, such as habitat provision, water provision and regulation, erosion protection, water quality and recreational services.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

Expert Group and Workshop on Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services

Forests create multiple benefits for the society, providing renewable raw materials and play an important role in human wellbeing, biological diversity, the global carbon cycle, water balance, erosion control, combating desertification and the prevention of natural hazards, among others. Forests contribute to environmental stability, economic prosperity and offer social, ecosystem and recreational services. The improve the knowledge about ecosystem services, its value and natural capital allow us to see the direct ways in which we depend on the natural environment and how local policy makers can address policy challenges in many different areas. The main difficulty of the Forest Ecosystem Services is that most of the services provided lies on the goods and services that are not traded in markets, making difficult to directly observe their values without a market. Also these non-market goods and services are supplied to either the society or certain groups of users, for free or at a symbolic price which is far below the production costs. As forest owners are not compensated in monetary terms for their provision, they could be less inclined to contribute to generate them. This attitude can lead to the diminution of availability of these services in an adequate quality and quantity. One of the possible solutions in order to avoid this loss is to apply financing mechanisms which allows the owners to keep offering the valuable ecosystem services. That requires knowledge on the estimated value of these services. Valuation of FES and the development of mechanisms to deliver these values are still being developed and introduced in many countries. Some countries have been active for some time, both in research and practice. The principle of establishing markets in less tangible, non-market ecosystem services has become a widely accepted principle in other countries like USA, but there have been signs in parts of the pan-Europe region of growing interest in this approach in recent years with some notable developments in practice. Following the Oslo Mandate action on estimating the full value of forest ecosystem services across Europe with a view to using common valuation approaches, this document tries to display some the latest works performed within the pan-European Region. Also the request for values to be increasingly reflected in relevant national policies and market-based instruments such as payments for ecosystem services was an important point to be taken onboard. We are aware that literature is extensive and it is difficult to reach common and unique positions and so the contribution of the participants in both the scopes of the Working Group and the Workshop, created specifically to help us to fulfill FE Programme of Work, was very much appreciated. Extraordinary recognition should be paid to Ms. Katerina Ventrubova, Mr. Jose Barredo and Mr. Pat Snowdon, leaders of the three Subworking Groups in whose works this document is based. Their efforts and help deserve our highest appreciation. Also, special thanks are owed to the Republic of Serbia, for hosting the Workshop and their endless support.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Mediterranean Habitat loss under future climate conditions – Adaptation options for Natura 2000 protected area sites.

Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are widely recognized as a global hotspot of biodiversity, hosting nearly 25,000 plant species (of which 13,000 are endemic), and representing one of the main reservoirs of plant diversity in the world. For these reasons, Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are considered a primary target for biodiversity conservation also in light of the services they provide to humans. Nevertheless, anthropogenic climate change is a serious threat for biodiversity conservation in this region. Indeed, the combined effect of the contraction of the Mediterranean climate domain and the expansion of the arid climate domain will lead to substantial habitat loss, which in turn may aggravate the impacts on communities of plant and animal species. In this study we assess Mediterranean habitat loss under scenarios of climate change and propose a series of adaptation options for Natura 2000 protected area sites. We first computed changes in the Mediterranean and arid climate domains (according to the Köppen‐Geiger classification) between the historical reference climate centred on the 1990s and two future periods centred on the 2030s and 2080s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We used 11 high resolution (0.11°) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The simulations were previously corrected for bias by Dosio (2016). Results of this study identified Natura 2000 sites that will be affected by Mediterranean habitat loss. Our results indicate that by the end of the century the Euro-Mediterranean domain is projected to lose an area equivalent to the size of Greece and Portugal combined. The loss is entirely due to shifts of the arid domain, which is projected to double in size. The shrinking of the current Euro-Mediterranean domain is projected to affect an important proportion of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 sites. Options for adaptation are modelled looking at facilitating the mobility of vagile species and reconnecting stable Mediterranean habitats and Natura 2000 sites through maintenance or development of corridors and stepping stones, creation of new protected areas, and actions promoting appropriate management of the wider landscape. The proposed options take into consideration investments in Green Infrastructure and the creation of a denser network of interconnected protected areas in critical zonesJRC.D.1-Bio-econom