35 research outputs found
Cancer Morbidity Trends and Regional Differences in England - a Bayesian Analysis
Reliable modelling of the dynamics of cancer morbidity risk is important, not least due to its significant impact on healthcare and related policies. We identify morbidity trends and regional differences in England for all-cancer and type-specific incidence between 1981 and 2016. We use Bayesian modelling to estimate cancer morbidity incidence at various age, year, gender, and region levels. Our analysis shows increasing trends in most rates and marked regional variations that also appear to intensify through time in most cases. All-cancer rates have increased significantly, with the highest increase in East, North West and North East. The absolute difference between the rates in the highest- and lowest-incidence region, per 100,000 people, has widened from 39 (95% CI 33-45) to 86 (78-94) for females, and from 94 (85-104) to 116 (105-127) for males. Lung cancer incidence for females has shown the highest increase in Yorkshire and the Humber, while for males it has declined in all regions with the highest decrease in London. The gap between the highest- and lowest-incidence region for females has widened from 47 (42-51) to 94 (88-100). Temporal change in in bowel cancer risk is less manifested, with regional heterogeneity also declining. Prostate cancer incidence has increased with the highest increase in London, and the regional gap has expanded from 33 (30-36) to 76 (69-83). For breast cancer incidence the highest increase has occurred in North East, while the regional variation shows a less discernible increase. The analysis reveals that there are important regional differences in the incidence of all-type and type-specific cancers, and that most of these regional differences become more pronounced over time. A significant increase in regional variation has been demonstrated for most types of cancer examined here, except for bowel cancer where differences have narrowed
The effect of the COVID-19 health disruptions on breast cancer mortality for older women: A semi-Markov modelling approach
We propose a methodology to quantify the impact on breast cancer mortality of
diagnostic delays caused by public health measures introduced as a response to
the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures affected cancer pathways by halting
cancer screening, delaying diagnostic tests, and reducing the numbers of
patients starting treatment. We introduce a semi-Markov model, to quantify the
impact of the pandemic based on publicly available population data for women
age 65{89 years in England and relevant medical literature. We quantify
age-specific excess deaths, for a period up to 5 years, along with years of
life expectancy lost and change in cancer mortality by cancer stage. Our
analysis suggests a 3-6% increase in breast cancer deaths, corresponding to
more than 40 extra deaths, per 100,000 women, after age 65 years old over 5
years, and a 4-6% increase in registrations of advanced (Stage 4) breast
cancer. Our modelling approach exhibits consistent results in sensitivity
analyses, providing a model that can account for changes in breast cancer
diagnostic and treatment services
Insurance pricing for breast cancer under different multiple state models
In this paper we consider pricing of insurance contracts for breast cancer
risk based on three multiple state models. Using population data in England and
data from the medical literature, we calibrate a collection of semi-Markov and
Markov models. Considering an industry-based Markov model as a baseline model,
we demonstrate the strengths of a more detailed model while showing the
importance of accounting for duration dependence in transition rates. We
quantify age-specific cancer incidence and cancer survival by stage along with
type-specific mortality rates based on the semi-Markov model which accounts for
unobserved breast cancer cases and progression through breast cancer stages.
Using the developed models, we obtain actuarial net premiums for a specialised
critical illness and life insurance product. Our analysis shows that the
semi-Markov model leads to results aligned with empirical evidence. Our
findings point out the importance of accounting for the time spent with
diagnosed or undiagnosed pre-metastatic breast cancer in actuarial
applications
Pricing pension buy-outs under stochastic interest and mortality rates
Pension buy-out is a special financial asset issued to offload the pension liabilities holistically in exchange for an upfront premium. In this paper, we concentrate on the pricing of pension buy-outs under dependence between interest and mortality rates risks with an explicit correlation structure in a continuous time framework. Change of measure technique is invoked to simplify the valuation. We also present how to obtain the buy-out price for a hypothetical benefit pension scheme using stochastic models to govern the dynamics of interest and mortality rates. Besides employing a non-mean reverting specification of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and a continuous version of Lee–Carter setting for modeling mortality rates, we prefer Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross models for short rates. We provide numerical results under various scenarios along with the confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulations
FİNANSAL RİSKLERİN UÇ DEĞER KURAMI İLE ÖLÇÜLMESİ
The extreme values in financial markets have been investigated in this study by using two different methods of extreme value theory: block maxima method and peaks over threshold method. Value at Risk, expected shortfall and return level are the risk tools that are taken benefit for risk analysis. Risks of an investor that has a position on IMKB-100 return index have been analyzed by measuring risk values for different percentages and performances of the methods have been compare