Reflections on a key component of co-producing climate services: defining climate metrics from user needs

There is increasing recognition of the importance of co-producing climate services to bridge the current “usability” gap in climate information for decision-making – yet understanding precisely how this should take place is less well elaborated. One key stage of the co-production process involves identifying specifically which climate metrics can usefully inform decisions – but methods that can be drawn upon to construct this information are often overlooked. We discuss how the choice and application of four existing social science methods (interview-informed role play workshop, open-ended interviews, prioritised surveys and enhanced surveys) arose out of, and was in turn embedded within, a different epistemological approach characteristic of co-production to identify decision-relevant climate metrics for the water and agriculture sectors in Malawi and Tanzania. In so doing, we reflect on the evolution of our understanding of co-production as our assumptions were challenged, from the expectation that we would be able to “obtain” metrics from users, to a dynamic mutual definition based on better understanding of the decision-making contexts. Such reflections inform emerging experiences of co-production of climate services, as well as having implications for broader contexts beyond the climate change space in which co-production is attempted to improve science-society interactions

Evolution of national climate adaptation agendas in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia: the role of national leadership and international donors

In this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017. This included a survey of 103 government staff (20 in Malawi, 29 in Tanzania and 54 in Zambia) and 242 interviews (106 in Malawi, 86 in Tanzania and 50 in Zambia) with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were interviewed multiple times over the study period, together with content analysis of relevant policy and programme documents. Whilst the climate adaptation agenda emerged in all three countries around 2007–2009, associated with multilateral funding initiatives, the rate and nature of progress has varied—until roughly 2015 when, for different reasons, momentum slowed. We find differences between the countries in terms of specifics of how they operated, but roles of two factors in common emerge in the evolution of the climate change adaptation agendas: national leadership and allied political priorities, and the role of additional funding provided by donors. These influences lead to changes in the policy and institutional frameworks for addressing climate change, as well as in the emphasis placed on climate change adaptation. By examining the different ways through which ideas, power and resources converge and by learning from the specific configurations in the country examples, we identify opportunities to address existing barriers to action and thus present implications that enable more effective adaptation planning in other countries. We show that more socially just and inclusive national climate adaptation planning requires a critical approach to understanding these configurations of power and politics

A yield gap analysis to assess vulnerability of commercial sugarcane to climatic extremes in southern Africa

Sugarcane yields have steadily declined across southern Africa for the past 25 years and, despite research into the causes, there has been limited progress in addressing these trends. This study developed a methodology of assessing yield declines and performed a yield gap analysis to assess and develop recommendations to assist in combating yield declines and offering potential safeguards for the sugarcane industry against climatic extremes. Mill areas from South Africa, eSwatini, Malawi and Tanzania were selected, providing a diversity of regional hydroclimatic conditions and sugarcane agronomic management approaches. Using the AquaCrop crop model, maximum potential yields and yield gaps were simulated based on observed climate and yield data spanning 25 years. Results show that yields are declining for the mill areas in South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania, resulting in increased yield gaps, whilst yields are stagnant in eSwatini resulting in relatively fixed yield gaps. Yield gaps remained high across all six mill areas, suggesting that they remain vulnerable and exposed to climatic extremes. Modelling results suggest that these yield trends, including yield gaps, are primarily attributed to existing crop management approaches as opposed to the climatic regimes in these areas. Recommendations include several solutions that could result in an immediate response and reduce yield gaps while increasing harvestable yields. Such measures include increasing technology transfer and agronomic management education to small-scale outgrowers, adopting drought-resistant, high-yielding sugarcane varieties, contouring and mulching, improving soil structural properties and minimizing in-field traffic. The study concludes that if sugarcane growers are to withstand the effects of extreme climatic events, they have to consider shifting crop management approaches and be proactively included in related research.http://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-agriculture-and-food-researchGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Agricultural perspectives on the 2015-2018 Western Cape drought, South Africa : characteristics and spatial variability in the core wheat growing regions

Between 2015 and 2018, the Western Cape Province of South Africa experienced a multi-year severe drought, which negatively impacted major economic sectors. The province serves as an important producer of wheat in South Africa among other agricultural commodities. This study aims to analyze the 2015-2018 drought and its impacts on wheat production in the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape, South Africa. The central focus is to place the drought in both a historical and future context while emphasising the differences between the two core wheat growing regions. We present an analysis of the drought, as well as climate trends computed from weather data sets (1988–2018) from six weather stations across the two core wheat-growing. We first present a meteorological drought analysis of mean annual and seasonal rainfall and temperatures, subsequently providing an agricultural lens by computing Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) accumulated over 12- and 36-month timescales, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), changes to the start and end of the rainfall season, and their effects on wheat yields. Trend analysis was conducted to determine if drought observations form part of the longer-term trends in the region. Finally, we show how the drought varied spatially across the two regions. Results show that between 1988 and 2018, the wheat growing areas of the Western Cape experienced persistent drought with high spatial-temporal variability. The 2015-2018 drought, however, was the most severe experienced in the 30-year study period at five of the six stations. These results are consistent with conditions that can be expected under future climate change. Moreover, results can be useful for the development of early warning systems since they place the drought in the context of past drought conditions.The Agriculture Research Council's Professional Development Programhttps://www.elsevier.com/locate/agrformethj2022Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

ASPIRES3 Summary Report: Computing

In this report, we share evidence from the ASPIRES research project, a fourteen-year, mixed methods investigation of the factors shaping young people’s trajectories in, through and out of STEM education (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), with a particular focus on access to STEM degrees. The study collected survey data from over 47,000 young people and conducted over 760 qualitative interviews with a longitudinal sample, which tracked 50 young people (and their parents/ carers) between the ages of 10 and 22. The project also conducted secondary analyses of UK National Statistics and Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data sets on England domiciled students, aged 18 to 24. This report focuses on analyses of survey data collected at age 21/22 and longitudinal interviews conducted from age 10 to 22, to shed light on the factors shaping STEM trajectories, particularly at degree level

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

In this paper we review current approaches and recent advances in research on climate impacts and adaptation in South Africa. South Africa has a well-developed earth system science research program that underpins the climate change scenarios developed for the southern African region. Established research on the biophysical impacts of climate change on key sectors (water, agriculture, and biodiversity) integrates the climate change scenarios but further research is needed in a number of areas, such as the climate impacts on cities and the built environment. National government has developed a National Climate Change Response White Paper, but this has yet to translate into policy that mainstreams adaptation in everyday practice and longer-term planning in all spheres and levels of government. A national process to scope long-term adaptation scenarios is underway, focusing on cross-sectoral linkages in adaptation responses at a national level. Adaptation responses are emerging in certain sectors. Some notable city-scale and project-based adaptation responses have been implemented, but institutional challenges persist. In addition, a number of knowledge gaps remain in relation to the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. A particular need is to develop South Africa's capacity to undertake integrated assessments of climate change that can support climate-resilient development planning

Temperature and relative humidity trends in the northernmost region of South Africa, 1950–2016

The northernmost Limpopo Province is located in one of the warmest regions of South Africa, where the agricultural sector is prone to heat stress. The aim of this study was to explore air temperature and relative humidity trends for the region, which have implications for agricultural adaptation and management (amongst other sectors). In particular, we investigated seasonal, annual and decadal scale air temperature and relative humidity changes for the period 1950–2016. Positive temperature trends were recorded for this period, averaging +0.02 °C/year, with the strongest changes observed in mean maximum summer temperatures (+0.03 °C/year). Interannual temperature variability also increased over time, especially for the period 2010–2016, which presents probability densities of <50% for minimum temperatures. Positive relative humidity trends (+0.06%/year) were also recorded for the period 1980– 2016, but proved to be the least predictable weather parameter, with probability densities of <0.5% across seasons for the study period. Considering the substantial interannual variability in temperature and relative humidity, there is clear increased risk for the agricultural sector, particularly for small-scale farmers who generally have limited capacity to adapt. Climate science focusing on the southern African region should continue to establish the impact of climate change and variability on specific small-scale farming systems and enterprises, with recommendations for strategic adaptation based on up-to-date evidence. SIGNIFICANCE : • Heat indices have increased, and variability in temperature and relative humidity has substantially increased over recent decades. • Changes in air temperature and relative humidity have direct and/or indirect negative effects on sectors such as agriculture, leading to reduced productivity. • The small-scale farming sector, which contributes significantly to national food security in developing countries, is the production system most exposed and vulnerable to observed changes/extremes in temperature and relative humidity. • There is an urgent need to build capacity of small-scale farmers for appropriate adaptation to observed changes in climate based on up-to-date evidence.Open Society Foundationhttp://www.sajs.co.zahj2021Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

Integrated assessment of the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability in the Vaal River catchment

Increasing water demand due to population growth, economic expansion and the need for development puts a strain on the supply capacity of the Vaal River catchment in South Africa. Climate change presents additional challenges in the catchment which supports the country's economic hub, more than 30% of its population and over 70% of its maize production. This study evaluates the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability and demand using a multi-tiered approach where climate scenarios, hydrological modelling and socio-economic considerations were applied. Results shows exacerbated water supply challenges for the future. Temperature increases of between 0.07 and 5 °C and precipitation reductions ranging from 0.4 to 30% for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, are also predicted by the end of the century. The highest monthly average streamflow reductions (8–10%) are predicted for the summer months beyond 2040. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) simulations project an increase in future water requirements, gaps in future water assurance and highlight limitations in existing management strategies. The study recommends a combination of adaptation plans, climatic/non-climatic stressor monitoring, wastewater-reuse, conservation, demand management and inter-basin transfers to reduce future uncertainty in monthly water sustainability.https://iwaponline.com/jwcchj2021Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog