The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest

<div><p>ABSTRACT</p><p>With the expected rising temperatures, outbreaks of insect pests may be more frequent, which can have large consequences on forest ecosystems and may therefore negatively affect the forestry sector. In order to be better able to predict where, but not if, outbreaks may occur in future we investigated the potential future (2070) geographical distribution of 30 prospective insect pest species (Coleoptera and Lepidoptera) by applying species distribution modelling. We also assessed the geographical extent to which the boreal forest in Sweden may be affected. We found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in “new” areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector.</p></div

Future breeding and foraging sites of a southern edge population of the locally endangered Black Guillemot <i>Cepphus grylle</i>

<p><b>Capsule:</b> One of the southernmost populations of the Black Guillemot <i>Cepphus grylle</i> is currently endangered, and the risk may be exacerbated by climate change.</p> <p><b>Aims:</b> We evaluated the future vulnerability of the Black Guillemot by predicting the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of its breeding and foraging range in the Baltic Sea.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We used MaxEnt, a species distribution modelling technique, to predict the current and future breeding grounds and foraging sites.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> We found that although the foraging range is expected to increase in the southern Baltic Sea in future, these areas will no longer be suitable as breeding grounds due to a changing climate, creating a spatial mismatch.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> Our predictions indicate where threats to the species may be most severe and can be used to guide conservation planning. We advocate conservation measures which integrate potential future threats and focus on breeding sites across the current and future potential geographic range of the Black Guillemot.</p

Effects of increasing the severity of climate change on (sub)arctic mammals¹.

1<p>Increasing the severity of climate change was simulated by doubling the change in the variable that was relatively the strongest contributor to the AUC when used by itself.</p>2<p>The trend according to the full model CGCM2 A2.</p

Effects of future climate change (CGCM2 A2, B2 scenario) on (sub)arctic mammals.

1<p>G (Generalist): species utilizing a variety of habitat types, S (Specialist): species specialized in utilizing particular habitat types.</p>2<p>The size of the predicted range in the Barents Region in 2000 (10 km²).</p>3<p>The percentage of increase/decrease of the predicted range in the Barents Region in 2080, Worst Case Scenario (no dispersal ability).</p>4<p>The percentage of increase/decrease of the predicted range in the Barents Region in 2080, Best Case Scenario (full dispersal ability). Values in italic state the size of the predicted range (10 km²).</p>5<p>C (colonizer): the species is predicted to be able to colonize the Barents Region when full dispersal ability is assumed, L (loser): the species is predicted to contract its range, W (winner): the species is predicted to expand its range.</p>6<p>The expected shift in km when full dispersal ability is assumed, and the direction of the shift between the centroids of the predicted range in 2000 and the potential range in 2080 (A2 scenario).</p>7<p>Percentage of the IUCN range covered by the predicted Best Case Scenario (full dispersal ability) range (geographical extent is the input area [see methods]).</p>8<p>Percentage of the predicted Best Case Scenario (full dispersal ability) range that overlapped with the IUCN range (geographical extent is the input area [see methods]).</p

Area predicted to be suitable for different large predators.

<p>a) 2000, b) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080, species are able to fully utilize their potential future range.</p

The net change in suitability of (sub)arctic Europe for mammals to occur.

<p>a) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080, b) CGCM2 B2 scenario 2080. Negative values indicate deteriorating situations and positive values indicate ameliorating situations in future.</p

Area predicted to be suitable for the European roe deer and its suitability for potential predators.

<p>a) 2000, b) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080, species are able to fully utilize their potential future range.</p

Predicted species richness in (sub)arctic Europe.

<p>a) 2000, b) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080; species are able to fully utilize their potential future range, c) CGCM2 B2 scenario 2080; species are able to fully utilize their potential future range, d) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080; species are limited to areas where their current range and potential future range overlap, e) CGCM2 B2 scenario 2080; species are limited to areas where their current range and potential future range overlap. The maps are displayed in the Albers Equal Area projection for Europe. The inset shows the study region in red and the additional zone to include possible colonizers in the study in dark grey.</p

Fragment of the predicted stable suitable area for the tundra vole and its suitability for potential predators.

<p>a) 2000, b) CGCM2 A2 scenario 2080, species are able to fully utilize their potential future range.</p

Example on how geographic extents impact conclusions made in SDMs of <i>Falco subbuteo.</i>

<p><b>A</b>. Unrestricted extent versus, <b>B</b>. Restricted extent, and <b>C</b>. Results drawn from SDMs.</p