Türkiye’de yakın dönem merkez bankacılığı ve uygulanan politikaların sonuçları

Türkiye, 1990’lı yıllardaki yüksek enflasyon düşük büyüme dönemini enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisi ile sona erdirmiştir. 2002-2016 yılları arasındaki fiyat istikrarına odaklı politikalar düşük enflasyon düzeylerine ulaşmış, istikrarlı büyümeyi desteklemiştir. 2017 yılından başlayarak TCMB bağımsızlığının aşamalı olarak azalması, para politikası kararlarında büyümenin ağırlığının artması, KGF ve kamu bankalarının aktif olarak kredi politikalarında rol üstlenmesi kısa vadede yatırımları ve büyümeyi artırmıştır. Ancak, özellikle Eylül 2021 sonrası fiyat istikrarı odaklı politikaların terk edilmesiyle birlikte, TCMB’nin enflasyon hedefinin nominal çapa olma vasfı erozyona uğramış, enflasyon oranları belirgin yükselmiş, döviz rezervleri kritik seviyelere düşmüş, ülke risk primi artmıştır. Başta düşük TCMB rezervleri olmak üzere, mevcut göstergeler mevcut para politikası operasyonel çerçevesinin sürdürülebilir olmadığını, gözden geçirilmesinin zorunlu olduğunu göstermektedir.Turkey ended the period of high inflation and low growth in the 1990s with inflation targeting strategy. Between 2002 and 2016, policies focused on price stability achieved low inflation and supported stable growth. Starting from 2017, the gradual decline in the CBRT's independence, the increase in weight of growth in monetary policy decisions, and the active role of the Credit Guarantee Fund and public banks in credit policies increased investments and growth in the short term. However, with the abandonment of price stability-oriented policies, especially after September 2021, the role of CBRT's inflation target as a nominal anchor has eroded, inflation rates have risen significantly, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to critical levels, and the country's risk premium has increased. Current indicators, particularly the low CBRT reserves, show that the current monetary policy operational framework is not sustainable and that it needs to be revised.Publisher's Versio

Finansal ve fiyat istikrarı için para politikası operasyonel çerçevesi : Türkiye örneği

This thesis aims to provide evidence on whether FDI occurring in the Turkish economy has any effect on domestic firms, especially whether and to what extent it leads to KTTs towards domestic firms by paying attention to the role of MNCs. In order to do so, we firstly conduct a series of econometric analyses to analyze the impact of FDI-related technology spillovers on domestic firms’ productivity level in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Estimation results produced positive evidence on horizontal and backward technology spillovers, while negative evidence on forward spillovers. Secondly, we conduct a comprehensive empirical research based on case study at firm-level in the Turkish automotive industry. By this study, generally we aim to investigate the existence, nature and intensity of transfers, and what – if any – kind of KTTs occur at both inter- and intra-firm level in the industry. For this aim, we used two different research methods to collect detailed data and information from both suppliers and AMMs at the firm-level. Our main findings in terms of KTTs at inter-firm level can be summarized in this way: foreign suppliers are seen to dominate local suppliers in terms of many indicators and absorptive capacity level; it seems that KTTs occur from AMMs to their domestic suppliers mainly on providing documentations, assistances for logistic management, quality control, know-how, R&D, co-design and co-development activities, designing and cost reduction; compared to foreign suppliers, local suppliers tend to be involved in those production-product-training related KTTs which are less knowledge-intensive and of a lesser quality. Also, performing R&D activities is found as the most important firm level factor which influences positively KTTs, strategic collaboration activities with the AMMs, and many technology activities of the suppliers. The technology policies on attracting more FDI flows should be reviewed under the findings and insights of this study since it is a necessary condition – although not sufficient - to have an efficient absorptive capacity level and/or skilled human capital stock in order to get benefit from these flows.Ph.D. - Doctoral Progra