Seismic detection of fault zone hydrocarbon conduit-seal potential using velocity, frequency, and Q analysis: La Concepcion Field, Lake Maracaibo Venezuela example.

The 3-D Post-Stack Time Migrated Seismic Data of La Concepcion Field, Maracaibo Basin, Venezuela cover an existing field with known oil and gas pay zones. The thesis problem is how to use this seismic data in an interpretation of leaky faults that occur in the exploration area of interest. A solution to the problem was obtained using an integrated geophysical approach that included published seismic attribute methods (Variance Cube, Geoframe IESX). Specific developments in this thesis to solve the interpretation problem of leaky faults in the region include (1) an image ray perturbation approach for updating the interval velocity in a faulted domain (2) a peak frequency approach to attenuation estimation within intervals and (3) a scaled interpretation of the velocity measurements at sonic, checkshot and surface seismic reflection data. The first development refines the interval velocities within fracture zones. The second development identifies anomalous attenuation most likely due to the presence of gas. The combined effects of low interval velocity and high attenuation are interpreted to be signs of leaking faults

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population