Crude Palm Oil Price ModellingA Comparison of Time Series Model

A variety of methods have been developed to model palm oil prices due to its rapid changes over time. The price modelling represents valuable and fundamental information to direct and indirect traders in fats and oils market. This study focuses on comparing the performances of two time series approaches which are the univariate and multivariate analysis in modeling the prices of palm oil. The univariate analysis produces Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) while the multivariate analysis produces Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. This study uses monthly prices of crude palm oil as well as monthly production of crude palm oil, monthly closing stock of crude palm oil, monthly export and import of crude palm oil from January 2000 until December 2013. The findings show that production and export have positive impact on price while import and stock have negative impact on price of palm oil. This study implies that the government should reduce the import and closing stock of palm oil to upturn its price. For future recommendation, other factors that might affect the price of palm oil such as yield and oil extraction rate should be integrated by other researcher

MODELLING THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOLOGICAL CUES FOR THE BLOOM OF SERGESTID SHRIMP Acetes (DECAPODA: SERGESTIDAE) IN COASTAL WATER OF MIRI, SARAWAK, MALAYSIAN BORNEO

The sergestid shrimp (Acetes spp.) show annual peak season from February to April. This krill-like shrimp, locally known as ‘bubok’, is one of the commercially important fisheries in Miri, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Previous researchers had reported patchy data on the environmental factors and Acetes distribution in Miri-Bintulu adjacent areas. Moreover, insufficient analysis has led to the inability to conduct sustainable management strategies for Acetes fisheries. Therefore, this study is designed to explore the mathematical model usage to understand the interaction between selected water quality parameters and zooplankton assemblages with Acetes population in coastal water of Miri. Selected temporal biotic and abiotic data were collected using standard methods and later subjected to mathematical time series analysis called the Granger causality test. The results show bi-directional Granger causality between the abundance of Acetes and dissolved oxygen (DO). Interaction between other water quality parameters (temperature, salinity, turbidity, pH, TSS and Chlorophyll a) with the abundance of Acetes is also emerged. The number of zooplankton in the water column, namely Centropages, Euterpina, Oithona rigida, and Oncaea shows a significant causality towards the abundance of Acetes. The findings imply that complex interaction between biotic and abiotic factors exists during the bloom of Acetes in Miri; thus, relevant agencies should step up measures to ensure sustainable management of the coastal areas where Acetes bloom occurs

Mathematics Practice Sem 1

Mathematics Practice Semester 1 is specially written for foudation students level taking Mathematics at Centre for Pre-University, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak or local matriculation centres. The objective of this book is to provide a comprehensive discourse of the basic concepts and foundation in Mathematics. This book contains ten chapters. Each chapter starts with a page of notes and formulae for easy reference. In each chapter, the concepts are explained clearly with real practice questions. Question and answer for each chapter provide a wide range of examination type question based on the concepts and theories learnt. Answers are also provided for all questions on each chapter. To optimize the effectiveness of this books, students are advised not to simply read the notes and formulae but instead to work out the solution and method on the space provided below the questions. All mathematical concepts are presented clearly in simple English for easy understanding. Practical questions have been incorporated to the chapters to enhance better understanding of the concepts. The book is also suitable for first year undergraduate Mathematics course for a degree or diploma programme

Autoregressive distributed lag modelling for Malaysian palm oil prices

Modelling food commodities prices has become the area of interest in financial time series. This study aims to model Malaysian average monthly prices of crude palm oil using dynamic regression approach. The sample period covers from January 2000 until December 2013. The model investigated is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model uses multivariate analysis with monthly prices, productions, imports, exports and closing stocks of crude palm oil as the variables. The ARDL model is selected using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Schwartz-Bayesian Criteria (SBC). The capabilities of this model in estimating the crude palm oil prices is compared to Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The process of modelling is done by using Eviews and Microfit statistical software. This study concluded that ARDL model is a better model in modelling the palm oil prices. The ARDL model selected by using AIC produce better estimation than the ARDL model selected by using SBC. Furthermore, there exist long-run relationship between crude palm oil prices and its determinants

Community Structure of Mud Crabs (Scylla spp.) from Buntal Mangroves,Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

Mud crabs (Scylla spp.) are commercially important species in Buntal Mangroves, Kuching, Sarawak, harvested mainly to meet the demand from local seafood restaurants. Fishermen have claimed that the size of mud crabs has declined, but no scientific study has been carried out to verify the statement. Therefore, a study was carried out to determine mud crab species composition and current community structure. Between February 2019 and January 2020, a total of 244 mud crabs were caught in Buntal Mangroves using collapsible baited crab traps. Their carapace length (CL), carapace width (CW) and wet body weight (BW) were measured. Four species of mud crab were collected, namely Scylla serrata, S. paramamosain, S. tranquebarica and S.olivacea. The sex ratios of S. olivacea and S. paramamosain were male biased; however, no sexual dimorphism was observed across all species in this study. The largest but rarest species caught during this study was S. serrata. It is hoped that more research work could be done in future to support sustainable utilisation of the resource and benefit the local communities

Effects of water parameters on population structure of mud crab from Buntal Mangroves, Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia: A GLM analysis

Buntal Mangroves, Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia, is an area that is abundant with biological resources but contains minimal biodiversity information. Mud crab fisheries by the locals exist on small scales at Buntal Mangroves, but there is a tendency to overfish due to the increasing demand for this resource. The relationship between the population structure of mud crabs and the environmental factors in Buntal Mangroves has not been explored. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the generalized linear models (GLM) for analyzing the population structure of mud crabs with selected water parameters in Buntal Mangroves. Scylla olivacea (Herbst, 1796) has the highest abundance in Buntal compared to S. tranquebarica (Fabricius, 1798) and other types of mud crab. Three GLM with carapace length, carapace width, and body weight as dependent variables were constructed. These GLMs with gamma-distributed response variables indicated that depth, pH, salinity, and turbidity positively affected body weight, carapace width, and carapace length, while temperature had a negative impact on the dependent variables. The results emphasized the importance of adopting the GLM to describe a relationship where the response variable followed a non-normal distribution. The findings provide a basis for future studies at Buntal Mangroves, not only for conservation purposes but also to support the utilization of this valuable resource sustainably

Modelling the environmental and biological cues for the bloom of sergestid shrimp Acetes (Decapoda: Sergestidae) in coastal water of Miri, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

The sergestid shrimp (Acetes spp.) shows the annual peak season from February to April. This krill-like shrimp, locally known as ‘bubok’, is one of the commercially important fisheries in Miri, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Previous researchers had reported patchy data on the environmental factors and Acetes distribution in Miri-Bintulu adjacent areas. Moreover, insufficient analysis has led to the inability to conduct sustainable management strategies for Acetes fisheries. Therefore, this study is designed to explore the mathematical model usage to understand the interaction between selected water quality parameters and zooplankton assemblages with the Acetes population in the coastal water of Miri. Selected temporal biotic and abiotic data were collected using standard methods and later subjected to mathematical time series analysis called the Granger causality test. The results show bi-directional Granger causality between the abundance of Acetes and dissolved oxygen (DO). Interaction between other water quality parameters (temperature, salinity, turbidity, pH, TSS and Chlorophyll a) with the abundance of Acetes has also emerged. The number of zooplankton in the water column, namely Centropages, Euterpina, Oithona rigida, and Oncaea shows a significant causality towards the abundance of Acetes. The findings imply that complex interaction between biotic and abiotic factors exists during the bloom of Acetes in Miri; thus, relevant agencies should step up measures to ensure sustainable management of the coastal areas where Acetes bloom occurs