China's Economic Outlook 2011-2012: Forecasting and Analysis

“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)“课题组基于2011年7月底国家统计局最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据调整并估计CQMM,对2011年下半年和2012年中国宏观经济运行趋势展开预测。预测结果表明,2011年gdP将可能增长9.82%,2012年gdP增长率可能回落至8.91%。模型预测,2011年CPI预计将上涨5.4%,2012年仅可能回落至4.93%的水平。课题组对美国经济陷入二次衰退对中国经济可能产生的影响进行政策模拟。结果显示,中国的进出口将因此会受到较大冲击,但如果能适时适量地调整货币政策,可在一定程度上通过投资需求的扩张来减缓美国经济二次衰退对中国经济的冲击,保持经济增长8.24%的水平。与此同时,经济增长放缓将减少了gdP与潜在gdP的缺口,降低通胀压力。我国应正视国内外宏观经济环境的变化,使中国经济正从高速增长逐步转向次高速以至中速增长的阶段。在通胀压力减缓后,顺应这一发展态势的改变,着力推进体制变革,促进发展方式的转变和经济结构的调整,为未来更高阶段的经济发展寻求新的增长点。Based on the latest macroeconomic quarterly data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics at the end of July 2011,the project team of "China's quarterly macroeconomic model(CQMM)" adjusts and estimates CQMM,and forecasts China's macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2011 and 2012.The forecasting shows that: GDP will grow by 9.82% in 2011,then down to 8.91% in 2012;and that CPI is expected to rise by 5.4% in 2011,then a little down to 4.93% in 2012.A policy simulation is conducted to predict the possible impact of the USA dropping into its second economic recession on China's economic development.It is predicted that China's import and export will be considerably affected but that this negative impact may be reduced to some extent by expanding China's demand for investment thereby maintaining its economic growth around 8.24%,if the monetary policy is adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner.Meanwhile,the economic slowdown will narrow the gap between GDP and potential GDP,and reduce the pressure of inflation.It is argued that China should face the changes of domestic and international macroeconomic environments and adjust its pace of economic growth from high-speed to semi-high till medium.Once pressure of inflation is reduced,we should adapt to new trends of development,step up our efforts to promote institutional reform,promote the transformation of models for economic development and the adjustment of economic structures,and seek new impetus and opportunities for its economic development at a higher level in the future.国家社科重大项目“扩大国内需求的宏观经济政策研究”(08&ZD034);中国教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国宏观经济模型的拓展:CQMMⅡ期”(10JJD790001);国家自然科学基金项目“中国季度地区经济模型的开发与应用”(71073130