The Research on Business Cycle in China:Based on Real Business Cycle Theory

中国经济周期波动既是一个具有重要现实意义的研究课题，又是一个具有重大理论意义的研究课题。一方面，自改革开放以来，我国宏观经济在高速增长的同时也经历了较大幅度的波动，对实际经济发展产生了很大影响。因此，揭示我国经济周期波动的主要原因和比较适合解释经济周期波动的理论，对维持实际经济的持续、稳定、长期发展具有重要现实意义。另一方面，随着我国社会经济的快速发展和社会主义市场化进程的逐步推进，我国经济管理部门已经充分认识到实际经济周期波动对于我国经济建设与发展的重要性，这就对学术界提出了一个新的命题，即构建适合解释我国实际宏观经济的波动特征事实的理论。 经济波动一直是主流宏观经济学研究的中心命题之一。...Understanding business cycles is important to macroeconomic growing smoothly as well as the development of economic theory in China. On one hand, since the reform and opening-up, economic growth in China has been experiencing a high growth speed as well as wild business cycle fluctuations, which has very big impacts on the economic development. For this season, exploring main causes for economic f...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院国际贸易系_世界经济学号：1572009015341

中国经济周期福利成本的边际分析

本文通过构造一个经济周期的福利成本估算模型,在克服“完全有效市场“假设的缺陷的基础上,对中国经济周期福利成本进行了阶段性分析。对中国在1992~2009年经济周期福利成本的估算发现,中国1952~1977年经济周期的福利成本高于1992~2009年的成本,低于1978~1991年的成本。当前中国经济周期的福利成本低于美国1948~2009年经济周期的福利成本。中国经济决策部门仍然应该以促进经济增长和实现经济发展为主要目标

The Estimation of China's Potential Output and the "Natural-rate Hypothesis" Test

本文通过重新估计我国在1952~2008年间的实际资本存量,推导出我国的潜在产出和gdP缺口,并对“自然率假说“进行了检验。研究结果表明,我国资本弹性约为0.6749,全要素生产率大约经历了9个周期。通过对三种估计产出缺口方法所得到的结果进行比较后发现,对于经历过自然条件冲击和技术革新的国家来说,生产函数法优于直接H-P趋势法和估计潜在增长率法。在对“自然率假说“进行检验后,本文认为,我国1952~2008年的数据拒绝了“自然率假说“,当前产出缺口的提高会提高我国的一般价格水平。This paper it re-estimated the actual capital stock of China between 1952 and 2008,derived the country's potential output and the GDP gap and examined the "natural-rate hypothesis".The results showed that the capital elasticity of China was about 0.6749 and the total factor productivity had undergone about nine cycles around.Through comparing the results obtained by three kinds of methods to count the output gap,it found that the production function methodology is superior to the methodology of the direct H-P filter and the methodology of potential growth rate to countries who had experienced the impact of natural shocks and technological innovation.After the testing of the"natural-rate hypothesis",this paper found that it rejected the"natural rate hypothesis"on the data of between 1952 and 2008 and the increasing of output gap would reduce the general price level in China.2009年国家社科基金重大课题“加快建设海峡西岸经济区重大问题研究”资助;编号:09&ZD06

Objects recognition based on the multi-angle polarization D-value curve

多角度偏振遥感在目标识别和地物观测中具有广阔的应用前景。从目标地物的偏振探测机理出发,讨论了它们偏振反射光谱的空间特征,以及由反射光的垂直振动分量和平行振动分量构成的偏振差值曲线的变化规律。结果显示:反射光的垂直振动分量与平行振动分量之差r⊥-∥随着折射率的变化而不同,且均在入射角80°附近达到最大;随着折射率的增加,r⊥-∥值逐渐增大;随着入射角从0°增加到90°,r⊥-∥值先增大后减小。偏振差值光谱信息与强度辐射光谱信息相比,目标地物间微小差异得到了增强;多角度偏振光谱信息与非多角度偏振光谱信息相比,在一定角度范围入射时更能显现目标地物间的微小差异。Multi-angle polarization remote sensing has wide application in objects recognition.On the basis of polarized detection mechanism,the space characteristics of the polarized reflection spectrum and the variation law of the polarized D-value curve constituted by the vertical vibration component and parallel vibration component of the reflected light are discussed.As a result,the D-value of vibration component and parallel vibration component of the reflected light vary with the reflective index,and the values reach the maximum at the light's incidence angle is about 80°.Along with the increase of the reflective index,the value of R⊥-∥ gradually increases,and along with the incidence angle increases from 0° to 90°,the value of R⊥-∥ firstly increases and then decreases.Compared the information of polarized D-value spectrum with the information of intensity spectrum,small discrepancy of object is enhanced;compared the information of multi-angle polarization spectrum with the information of single angle polarization spectrum,smaller discrepancy of object is enhanced in a specific incidence angle.四川省教育厅青年基金项目(07ZB046);四川省教育厅青年基金项目(2006B077);四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目(2008JY0121

国际发展援助趋势与中国援助管理体系改革

《巴黎宣言》签署于2005年,是数十年来在改善援助效果方面所做努力的最高成就,是援助领域国际协议和项目改革的里程碑。在《巴黎宣言》五项原则和12项具体指标的指引和约束下,国际发展援助规模和效果都取得了极大的进展。本文基于《巴黎宣言》的核心精神,结合国际发展援助近年来的变化和进展,前瞻性地分析国际发展援助管理体系未来的发展趋势和制度安排,并基于此,探讨了中国对外援助管理体系存在的问题,以及进一步改进的政策建议,以期中国对外援助能够把握趋势、改革创新,不断提高对外援助效果。2013年国家社科基金一般项目“援助有效性、发展有效性与中国对外援助的质量研究”支持;项目批准号为13BJL05

The Habits Formation of Chinese People's Consumption——The Empirical Study on the Provincial Panel Data in 1979-2008

本文将居民消费的习惯形成引入效用函数,在构建理论模型的基础上,采用1979~2008年省域面板数据和利用状态空间模型提取真实消费支出,对中国居民的当期消费是否受习惯形成的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)前期消费的习惯形成对中国居民的当期消费产生了显著的影响;(2)习惯形成对中国不同地区居民的当期消费行为的影响具有明显的差异,其降低了东部地区居民的当期消费,促进了中、西部地区居民的当期消费。This article introduced the habit formation of people's consumption into the utility function,built a theoretical model to empirically study whether the habit formation influenced the current consumption by using provincial panel data in 1979-2008 in China and the real consumer spending extracted by state space model.The results showed that: (1) the habit formed in former consuming had the significant influence on the current consumption of people,(2 ) the habit formation had different influence on the current consumption of residents in different regions.It would lower the current consumption of people in the eastern and would promote the current consumption of people in the middle and western.福建社科规划项目《推进闽台金融深度合作;促进海西金融发展》(项目号:2010B120

Medium-term Impact of External Shocks of Financial Crisis to Southeast Asian Countries' Output:Based on Studies of Impact of Japanese,American Financial Crisis Shocks

金融危机会影响到一国经济的增长路径、降低其消费、投资和进出口,同时也会通过资本渠道、外贸渠道、产业结构调整渠道对他国经济产生冲击。本文通过考察外部金融危机通过外贸渠道对东南亚国家经济产生的影响,得出金融危机外部冲击对东南亚各国经济的影响具有时滞性、影响期为1-3期、对不同国家产出的影响具有不同的特点,并在此基础上分析了东南亚各国从美国次贷危机冲击中复苏的路径。The financial crisis will affect the economic growth path of one country,and will reduce its consumption,investment,import and export,and at the same time through the capital channel, the foreign trade channel,the industrial structure channel,it shocks the economy of other country.In this paper,by exploring the shocks of external financial crises to the Southeast Asian countries through foreign trade channels,this paper draws the conclusion that the impact of external shocks of the financial crisis to Southeast Asian countries' economy has the time lag and the impact period is 3,the impact to the national out of different countries shows different features,and on this basis,it analyzes the recovery path of Southeast Asian countries from the subprime lending crisis of USA.教育部人文社会科学研究项目《东亚外汇储备库研究》的支持;项目号:08JC79008

Research on Procyclical Fluctuations of G20 Output:Feasibility and Effect Analysis on G20 Macroeconomic Policy Co-ordination

本文应用H-P滤波法对g20各成员国的经济周期进行了分析,结果表明,1980-2009年各成员国的经济周期基本具有同周期性,g20宏观经济政策协调具有可行性。在1999年g20协调机制运行前后,各成员国的经济周期均发生了一定的变化,g20协调机制有利于成员国缓和经济波动和促进持续的经济增长。研究发现,结论对中国同样适用,这表明,g20协调机制的运行有利于缓和我国经济的波动程度、提高我国经济增长的平稳性。By using H-P filter method to analyze the business cycles of G20 countries,this paper shows that the business cycles of G20 countries were basical-ly procyclical from 1980 to 2009 and the macroeconomic policy co-ordination of G20 is feasible.After the co-ordination mechanism running in 1999,G20 countries ' business cycles had some changes,the overall volatility declined about 22.96%,the overall low values increased about 27.81%.So,the co-ordination mechanism of G20 was conducive to maintaining stable fluctuations and to main-taining sustainable economic growth to members.Meanwhile,it finds that these conclusions also apply to China,which indicates that the co-ordination mechanism running in G20 is conducive to easing the volatility and improving the stability of China's economic growth.福建社科规划项目《推进闽台金融深度合作促进海西金融发展》支持;项目号:2010B12

Habit Formation,Borrowing Constraints and the Real Business Cycle in China:An Empirical Study on a RBC Model

本文先确定1979~2009年间中国宏观经济波动的特征事实:消费、投资波动与产出高度相关,产出波动高于消费波动,但低于投资波动。然后,采用随机动态一般均衡方法,将居民消费的习惯形成和借贷约束引入rbC模型对中国经济进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)本文模型能够解释实际消费、就业、投资和产出波动的82.22%、79.09%、99.75%、99.57%;(2)这一模型对中国宏观经济的解释力要强于未包含劳动的rbC模型、包含资本劳动的可分劳动rbC模型、引入居民消费的习惯形成的可分劳动rbC模型。This article firstly displays the stylized facts of China's macroeconomic fluctuations in 1979-2009, its consumption and investment is highly correlated with GDP output,GDP output's volatility is lower than investment's and is more than consumption's.By using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method,it introduces the habit formation and borrowing constraints into the RBC model to analyze the business cycles in China.It is found that this model can explain about 82.22%,79.09%,99.75%,and 99.57%of the actual consumption, employment,investment and output volatility.After comparative analyzing,it shows that this model would explain better China's macroeconomic fluctuations than the RBC model that does not include labor,than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and habit formation,which implies that the introduction of habit formation and borrowing constraints into the model greatly improves simulation results.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“我国宏观经济运行的微观基础研究”(08JJD790134)资

Biased Technical Change,Habit Formation and Real Business Cycle in China:A Study on a RBC Model

本文构建了一个同时引入偏向性技术变迁与中性技术冲击的包含居民消费的习惯形成的随机动态一般均衡模型,并以此模型为基础,对1979-2009年间中国宏观经济进行实证检验。研究表明:模型的预测结果与中国的特征事实较一致;对中国宏观经济的解释力要强于未包含劳动的rbC模型、包含资本劳动的可分劳动rbC模型、引入居民消费的习惯形成的可分劳动rbC模型,说明这一模型更符合中国经济的特征事实;与正的中性技术冲击具有正财富效应相反,正的偏向性技术变迁冲击具有明显的负财富效应特征;我国1979-2007年间推行的降低劳动弹性的偏向性技术变迁工业化发展战略促进了我国居民消费的增加、资本积累与gdP产出的提高,故而认为,这个战略是成功的。This article constructed a dynamic equilibrium model that was incorporated the biased technical change shocks and standard productivity shocks and included the formation of consumption habit,while it based on which model to analyze the business cycles in China 1979-2009.It showed that model was much consistent to the facts of China's real business.After comparative analyzing,this model would explain better China's macroeconomic fluctuations than the RBC model that does not include labor,than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and than the RBC model that includes dividable labor and habit formation,which implies that the introduction of habit formation,biased technical change and standard productivity shocks into the model greatly improves simulation results.Unlikely with that the standard productivity shocks had the positive wealth affections,the biased technical change shocks had the weal affections.The industrialization strategy that was pushed in 1979-2007 by China government and lowered the labor elastics promoted increasing of people's consumption and increasing of capital accumulation and GDP output,therefore,this article argued that which strategy is successful.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“我国宏观经济运行的微观基础研究”(08JJD790134)支