Semiparametric inference in mixture models with predictive recursion marginal likelihood

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in the additional unknown structural parameter. As an alternative to existing profile likelihood methods, we treat predictive recursion as a filter approximation to fitting a fully Bayes model, whereby an approximate marginal likelihood of the structural parameter emerges and can be used for inference. We call this the predictive recursion marginal likelihood. Convergence properties of predictive recursion under model mis-specification also lead to an attractive construction of this new procedure. We show pointwise convergence of a normalized version of this marginal likelihood function. Simulations compare the performance of this new marginal likelihood approach that of existing profile likelihood methods as well as Dirichlet process mixtures in density estimation. Mixed-effects models and an empirical Bayes multiple testing application in time series analysis are also considered

Consistency of a recursive estimate of mixing distributions

Mixture models have received considerable attention recently and Newton [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast recursive algorithm for estimating a mixing distribution. We prove almost sure consistency of this recursive estimate in the weak topology under mild conditions on the family of densities being mixed. This recursive estimate depends on the data ordering and a permutation-invariant modification is proposed, which is an average of the original over permutations of the data sequence. A Rao--Blackwell argument is used to prove consistency in probability of this alternative estimate. Several simulations are presented, comparing the finite-sample performance of the recursive estimate and a Monte Carlo approximation to the permutation-invariant alternative along with that of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate and a nonparametric Bayes estimate.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS639 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A comparison of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure with some Bayesian rules for multiple testing

In the spirit of modeling inference for microarrays as multiple testing for sparse mixtures, we present a similar approach to a simplified version of quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. Unlike in case of microarrays, where the number of tests usually reaches tens of thousands, the number of tests performed in scans for QTL usually does not exceed several hundreds. However, in typical cases, the sparsity $p$ of significant alternatives for QTL mapping is in the same range as for microarrays. For methodological interest, as well as some related applications, we also consider non-sparse mixtures. Using simulations as well as theoretical observations we study false discovery rate (FDR), power and misclassification probability for the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure and its modifications, as well as for various parametric and nonparametric Bayes and Parametric Empirical Bayes procedures. Our results confirm the observation of Genovese and Wasserman (2002) that for small p the misclassification error of BH is close to optimal in the sense of attaining the Bayes oracle. This property is shared by some of the considered Bayes testing rules, which in general perform better than BH for large or moderate $p$'s.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/193940307000000158 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org