Strategic Capacity Withholding by Energy Storage in Electricity Markets

Abstract: Although previous work has demonstrated the ability of large energy storage (ES) units to exercise market power by withholding their capacity, it has adopted modeling approaches exhibiting certain limitations and has not analyzed the dependency of the extent of exercised market power on ES operating properties. In this paper, the decision making process of strategic ES is modeled through a bi-level optimization problem; the upper level determines the optimal extent of capacity withholding at different time periods, maximizing the ES profit, while the lower level represents endogenously the market clearing process. This problem is solved after converting it to a Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC) and linearizing the latter through suitable techniques. Case studies on a test market quantitatively analyze the extent of capacity withholding and its impact on ES profit and social welfare for different scenarios regarding the power and energy capacity of ES

Strategic distribution network planning with smart grid technologies

This paper presents a multiyear distribution network planning optimization model for managing the operation and capacity of distribution systems with significant penetration of distributed generation (DG). The model considers investment in both traditional network and smart grid technologies, including dynamic line rating, quadrature-booster, and active network management, while optimizing the settings of network control devices and, if necessary, the curtailment of DG output taking into account its network access arrangement (firm or non-firm). A set of studies on a 33 kV real distribution network in the U.K. has been carried out to test the model. The main objective of the studies is to evaluate and compare the performance of different investment approaches, i.e., incremental and strategic investment. The studies also demonstrate the ability of the model to determine the optimal DG connection points to reduce the overall system cost. The results of the studies are discussed in this paper

Robust estimation of risks from small samples

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited, but the impact of estimation errors may be very large. This paper presents a robust nonparametric Bayesian method to infer possible underlying distributions. The method obtains rigorous error bounds even for small samples taken from ill-behaved distributions. The approach taken has a natural interpretation in terms of the intervals between ordered observations, where allocation of probability mass across intervals is well-specified, but the location of that mass within each interval is unconstrained. This formulation gives rise to a straightforward computational resampling method: Bayesian Interval Sampling. In a comparison with common alternative approaches, it is shown to satisfy strict error bounds even for ill-behaved distributions.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures; supplementary information provided. A revised version of this manuscript has been accepted for publication in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science

Stochastic optimisation-based valuation of smart grid options under firm DG contracts

Under the current EU legislation, Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) are expected to provide firm connections to new DG, whose penetration is set to increase worldwide creating the need for significant investments to enhance network capacity. However, the uncertainty around the magnitude, location and timing of future DG capacity renders planners unable to accurately determine in advance where network violations may occur. Hence, conventional network reinforcements run the risk of asset stranding, leading to increased integration costs. A novel stochastic planning model is proposed that includes generalized formulations for investment in conventional and smart grid assets such as Demand-Side Response (DSR), Coordinated Voltage Control (CVC) and Soft Open Point (SOP) allowing the quantification of their option value. We also show that deterministic planning approaches may underestimate or completely ignore smart technologies

Value of thermostatic loads in future low-carbon Great Britain system

This paper quantifies the value of a large population of heterogeneous thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs). The TCL dynamics are regulated by means of an advanced demand side response model (DSRM). It optimally determines the flexible energy/power consumption and simultaneously allocates multiple ancillary services. This model explicitly incorporates the control of dynamics of the TCL recovery pattern after the provision of the selected services. The proposed framework is integrated in a mixed integer linear programming formulation for a multi-stage stochastic unit commitment. The scheduling routine considers inertia-dependent frequency response requirements to deal with the drastic reduction of system inertia under future low-carbon scenarios. Case studies focus on the system operation cost and CO2 emissions reductions for individual TCLs for a) different future network scenarios, b) different frequency requirements, c) changes of TCL parameters (e.g. coefficient of performance, thermal insulation etc.)

Benefits of demand-side response in providing frequency response service in the future GB power system

The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future Great Britain (GB) electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from demand-side response (DSR). The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment, and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterized by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant) delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage, and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider