Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar

This paper presents an applied microsimulation model built on household data with explicit treatment of heterogeneity of skills, labor preferences and opportunities, and consumption preferences at the individual and/or household level, while allowing for an endogenous determination of relative prices between sectors. The model is primarily focused on labor markets and labor allocation at the household level, but consumption behavior is also modeled. Modeling choices are driven by a desire to make the best possible use of microeconomic information derived from household data. This framework supports analysis of the impact of different growth strategies on poverty and income distribution, without making use of the “representative agent” assumption. The model is built on household survey data and represents the behavior of 4,508 households. Household behavioral equations are estimated econometrically. Different sets of simulation are carried out to examine the comparative statics of the model and study the impact of different growth strategies on poverty and inequality. Simulation results show the potential usefulness of this class of models to derive both poverty and inequality measures and transition matrices without prior assumptions regarding the intra-group income distribution. Market clearing equations allow for the endogenous determination of relative prices between sectors. The impact of different growth strategies on poverty and inequality is complex given general equilibrium effects and the wide range of household positions in markets for factors and goods markets. Partial equilibrium analysis or the use of representative households would miss these effects.Microeconomics Madagascar. ,Madagascar. ,Labor market. ,Poverty. ,TMD ,

Risk and Schooling Decisions in Rural Madagascar: a Panel Data Analysis.

La plupart des ménages ruraux malgaches tirent l’essentiel de leurs revenus de l’agriculture et sont exposés à un fort degré d’incertitude en raison de la fréquence et de l’intensité des aléas frappant les champs de culture ou les troupeaux. En l’absence de marchés du crédit ou de l’assurance, des moyens alternatifs pour éliminer ou atténuer les conséquences défavorables de cette incertitude doivent être trouvés par les ménages. Dans cet article, nous envisageons la possibilité que la mise au travail des enfants constitue un mécanisme de gestion des risques. Afin de tester cette hypothèse, nous examinons les déterminants de la scolarisation en cycle primaire d’un échantillon d’enfants issus de ménages ruraux. Nous examinons notamment le rôle des chocs de revenu subis par les ménages sur les probabilités d’entrée (dans) et de sortie hors de l’école de leurs membres en âge d’être scolarisés, en portant une attention particulière aux questions de genre et d’allocation intra-ménage des ressources. Les résultats indiquent que les chocs transitoires de revenu ont un impact significatif sur la probabilité de sortie de l’école mais pas sur la probabilité d’entrer à l’école. Cela suggère que la déscolarisation des enfants les plus âgés constitue un mécanisme de gestion du risque pour les ménages ruraux.Most households in rural Madagascar are engaged in agriculture and derive a large share of their income from the production of food or cash crops and from animal husbandry. However, agricultural yields can be extremely volatile due to weather conditions, pests, insects, rodents and other calamities. As a result, households record large fluctuations in their incomes that must be dealt with. Since the usual consumption-smoothing market mechanisms are quite limited in the Malagasy context, households need to rely on nonmarket mechanisms or to adopt multi-faceted strategies to cope with risk. In this paper, we examine the possibility that parents obtain informal income insurance by letting their children work. We test this hypothesis by examining the relationship between household income shocks and human capital investment in children. In particular, we investigate whether children’s propensity to join school and to drop out of school responds to transient shocks. We also investigate issues such as gender and intrahousehold resource allocation.Stratégies de gestion des risques; Risk-coping strategies; Décision de scolarisation; Schooling decisions; Transitory shocks; Chocs transitoires;

The social impact of a WTO agreement in Indonesia

Indonesia experienced rapid growth and the expansion of the formal financial sector during the last quarter of the 20th century. Although this tendency was reversed by the shock of the financial crisis that spread throughout Asia in 1997 and 1998, macroeconomic stability has since then been restored, and poverty has been reduced to pre-crisis levels. Poverty reduction remains nevertheless a critical challenge for Indonesia with over 110 million people (53 percent of the population) living on less than $2 a day. The objective of this study is to help identify ways in which the Doha Development Agenda might contribute to further poverty reduction in Indonesia. To provide a good technical basis for answering this question, the authors use an approach that combines a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a microsimulation model. This framework is designed to capture important channels through which macroeconomic shocks affect household incomes. It allows making recommendations on specific trade reform options as well as on complementary development policy reforms. The framework presented in this study generates detailed poverty outcomes of trade shocks. Given the magnitude of the shocks examined here and the structural features of the Indonesian economy, only the full liberalization scenario generates significant poverty changes. The authors examine their impact under alternative specifications of the functioning of labor markets. These alternative assumptions generate different results, all of which confirm that the impact of full liberalization on poverty would be beneficial, with wage and employment gains dominating the adverse food price changes that could hurt the poorest households. Two alternative tax replacement schemes are examined. While direct tax replacement appears to be more desirable in terms of efficiency gains and translates into higher poverty reduction, political and practical considerations could lead the Government of Indonesia to choose a replacement scheme through the adjustment of value-added tax rates across nonexempt sectors.Rural Poverty Reduction,Economic Theory&Research,Poverty Assessment,Achieving Shared Growth,Inequality

The complementarity of MDG achievements : the case of child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper analyzes complementarities between different Millennium Development Goals, focusing on child mortality and how it is influenced by progress in the other goals, in particular two goals related to the expansion of female education: universal primary education and gender equality in education. The authors provide evidence from eight Sub-Saharan African countries using two rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys per country and applying a consistent micro-econometric methodology. In contrast to the mixed findings of previous studies, for most countries the findings reveal strong complementarities between mothers’ educational achievement and child mortality. Mothers’ schooling lifts important demand-side constraints impeding the use of health services. Children of mothers with primary education are much more likely to receive vaccines, a crucial proximate determinant of child survival. In addition, better educated mothers tend to have longer birth intervals, which again increase the chances of child survival. For the variables related to the other goals, for example wealth proxies and access to safe drinking water, the analysis fails to detect significant effects on child mortality, a finding that may be related to data limitations. Finally, the study carries out a set of illustrative simulations to assess the prospects of achieving a reduction by two-thirds in the under-five mortality rate. The findings indicate that some countries, which have been successful in the past, seem to have used their policy space for fast progress in child mortality, for example by extending vaccination coverage. This is the main reason why future achievements will be more difficult and explains why the authors have a fairly pessimistic outlook.Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Early Child and Children's Health,Early Childhood Development,Adolescent Health

Reconciling household surveys and national accounts data using a cross entropy estimation method:

This paper presents an approach to reconciling household surveys and national accounts data that starts from the assumption that the macro data represent control totals to which the household data must be reconciled. The economic data gathered in the survey are also assumed to be accurate, or have been adjusted to be accurate. Given these assumptions, the problem is how to use the additional information provided by the national accounts data to re-estimate the household weights used in the survey so that the survey results are consistent with the aggregate data. The estimation approach represents an efficient “information processing rule” using an estimation criterion based on an entropy measure of information. The survey household weights are treated as a prior. New weights are estimated that are close to the prior using a cross-entropy metric and that are also consistent with the additional information. This approach is implemented to reconcile LSMS survey data and macro data for Madagascar. The results indicate that the approach is powerful and flexible, supporting the efficient use of information from a variety of sources to reconcile data at different levels of aggregation in a consistent framework.National income Accounting., Household surveys., Madagascar.,

Highly sensitive frequency metrology for optical anisotropy measurements

In this paper we present a novel apparatus aimed at measuring very small birefringences and anisotropies, based on frequency metrology and not on polarimetry as usual. In our experiment, a very high finesse resonant cavity is used to convert the phase difference into a resonance frequency difference, which can then be measured with very high accuracy. We describe the set-up and present the results of experimental tests which exhibited a sensitivity dn ~ 2 x 10?18, allowing for the measurement of long-predicted magneto-electro-optical effects in gases. Since the shotnoise limited sensitivity of our apparatus lies well below the state-of-the-art sensitivity, frequency metrology appears as a promising technique for small birefringence measurements.Comment: Accepted for publication in Review of Scientific Instrument

Where there’s smoke, there’s more smoke: The social settings and friendship interactions that encourage young adults to smoke cigarettes

Despite widespread public health campaigns in Western countries people continue to smoke cigarettes and more worryingly, young people continue to take up the habit. In this thesis it is argued that cigarette smoking practices for young adults can be understood in terms of contributing to their sense of identity construction through friendship interactions and sociability. Data collected from email administered surveys and snowball sampling techniques, alongside secondary data from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (2007), inform the research undertaken in this thesis and the results support the social benefits hypothesis in explaining why young adults smoke cigarettes. This study thereby suggests that in order for anti-smoking initiatives to be more successful in tackling the smoking habits of young adults additional research is required in identity formation, interactive factors and sociability factors that affect cigarette smoking practices of young adults

Diffraction phases in atom interferometers

Diffraction of atoms by laser is a very important tool for matter wave optics. Although this process is well understood, the phase shifts induced by this diffraction process are not well known. In this paper, we make analytic calculations of these phase shifts in some simple cases and we use these results to model the contrast interferometer recently built by the group of D. Pritchard at MIT. We thus show that the values of the diffraction phases are large and that they probably contribute to the phase noise observed in this experiment.Comment: v3 11/03/0

Assessing and Evaluating Environmental Impacts at Proposed Nuclear Power Plant Sites

The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities in the Pacific Northwest is used as an example. Possible impacts are quantified for two objectives: minimizing adverse impacts on salmonids and minimizing biological disturbance. The results provide information about both the direct and indirect consequences of the impact. This approach explicitly addresses the multiple objective and uncertainty issues inherent in environmental problems. It also provides a mechanism for illuminating conflicts among interested parties and promoting constructive compromise