Degree of Competition and Export-Production Relative Prices when the Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence from a Panel of Czech Exporting Companies

In this paper we show the relevance of the degree of competition for inferences about changes in export-production relative prices when the nominal exchange rate changes. We devise a model for tradable goods that combines the market competition and the pricing-tomarket literature and we empirically document the contrast between perfectly and imperfectly competitive markets for the export-production relative price responses to exchange rate changes. When the macroeconomic view is taken, a change in the degree of competition in exports (a change in the average mark-up on exported products) alternates the reaction in relative prices and quantity exported and thus requires careful policy-related consideration.Degree of competition, exchange rate, pricing-to-market.

Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective

Consensus Economics forecasts for euro-area GDP growth, consumer and producer price inflation and the USD/EUR exchange rate are used by the Czech National Bank to make assumptions about future external economic developments. This paper compares the accuracy of the aforementioned Consensus forecasts to those of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and also to the naive forecast and the forecast implied by the forward exchange rate. In the period from 1994 to 2009 Consensus forecasts for effective euro-area consumer price inflation and GDP growth beat the alternatives by a difference which is typically statistically significant. The results are more diverse for the pre-crisis sample (1994–2007). The Consensus forecast for euro-area producer price inflation significantly outperforms the naive forecast in the short-term. Finally, the Consensus forecast for the USD/EUR exchange rate during the period from 2002 to 2009 is more precise than the naive forecast and the forecast implied by the forward rate.Forecasting accuracy, prediction process, survey forecasts.

The Price Effects of an Emerging Retail Market

In this paper we analyze the effects of changing market structure on price dynamics of final goods in the emerging Czech retail market. We estimate the extent of upstream and downstream market power and find that changing market structure was responsible for an average yearly decrease in the prices of retailed products of 0.8 p.p. during 2000–2005. At the same time, however, we anticipate that the already started period of mergers and acquisitions could cause yearly increases in the prices of retailed products of 1.2 p.p. (approximately 0.5 p.p. in the CPI) over the next ten years.Market structure, retail market, transition economy.