Fluctuations in drought occurrence and perceptions of its positive consequences in the Savanna region of Nigeria

This study is on fluctuations in drought occurrence and perceptions of its positive consequences in the Savanna region of Nigeria. Data for seventy years (1941 to 2010) on rainfall were sourced from earlier researches for eight selected stations in the study area. The Bhalme and Mooley Drought Index (BMDI) was applied to the data to determine whether or not drought occurred in a particular year. Three different moving averages were applied to the drought series values as depicted by Bhalme and Mooley Drought Index (BMDI). This was done to remove the cyclic, seasonal and irregular patterns (smoothing of the time series) and clearly indicates variations from year to year and any abrupt climatic change in the drought series. Findings revealed various drought intensities in the selected stations during the period of study. Also, a desktop review and perceptions on the positive consequences of drought was carried out with information derived from various stakeholders such as farmers, traders, miners, military personnel and others using focus group discussion, excerpts from journals and books as well as observations by the researcher. This qualitative data and information collaborated the findings of the statistical tools (BMDI and Moving Averages) in the occurrence of drought in the study area and also gave insights into benefits derived from its occurrence by various socio-economic sectors (aviation, trade and commerce, tourism, sand mining, construction, leather work and military activities) of the economy in the study region

Intensity, duration and frequency of rainstorms in Lokoja

This study analyzed the Intensity, duration and frequency (IDF) of rainstorms in Lokoja. Daily rainfall data were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET). These data were for fifty-five years (1955-2010).The Weibull’s equation was used to plot the return periods of the IDF. The data were fitted to gamma distribution, while the IDF curves were generated using the Gumbel’s distribution. Furthermore, a model expressing the relationship among intensity, duration and frequency of rainstorms for Lokoja was developed. Results showed that the highest annual rainfall in Lokoja in the last 35 years occurred in 1999 with a depth of 1767.1mm with a return period of 36 years while the lowest rainfall occurred in 1982 with an amount of 804.5mm and a return period of one year. The IDF model showed various rainstorm occurrences in Lokoja with their intensities. The highest rainfall intensities are those of relatively low duration (0.2 to 0.7hrs), the medium intensities for 1 to 3hrs durations and the lowest intensities for 6 to 24hrs durations). The highest intensity was that of 0.2 hour (226mm) with a return period of 100 years. The lowest intensity for 0.2 hour was 66.1mm with a return period of 1 year. The IDF curves also confirmed that rainfall intensity in Lokoja decreases with increasing time interval. This study therefore, will be useful in the design of hydrologic facilities like dams and drainage channels.Keywords: Intensity, Duration, Frequency, Rainstorms and Return Perio

In the Milieu of Planning: The Micro and Meso Scales Climatic Effects in Urban Neighbourhoods in Nigeria

In several developing countries, urban centres are emerging at rapid rates. These urban centres are associated with increase in population as well as increase in social and economic activities resulting in the generation of huge wastes. They are also known as areas of intense constructions especially of buildings and roads. Most of these activities result in the cutting down of trees and deforestation thereby making surfaces to be bare or at best paved with bitumen or concrete. All these result in increase in temperature especially in areas within the urban centres without vegetal cover (treeless). This very much is the situation in many Nigerian urban centres including Lokoja North Central Nigeria. This paper posits and shows the contrast in temperature between neighbourhoods that have vegetal covers (tree communities) and those that do not have. It therefore highlights the benefit of the micro scale climatic effect of tree(s) on the meso scale climatic effect of a city or urban centre on itself. It further advocates for the greening of the study area (Lokoja) through the planting of trees, establishment of lawns, urban parks and gardens and the use of green roof options. This position is supported and based on the survey of local resilience strategies and measures used by the respondents and inhabitants of the study area in which 59% of the respondents make use of urban greening options among other coping measures such as lifestyle modification and building modification. Keywords: Micro and Meso-Scales Climatic Effects, Temperature, Urban Heat Island, Thermal Discomfort and Resilience

Meteorological Drought and Temperature in Sudano-Sahelian Region of Nigeria under Increasing Global Warming

This study examinesmeteorological drought and temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Nigeria under increasing global warming. Rainfall data of 60 years (1961 to 2020) and temperature of 40 years (1981–2020) for nine stations were used to quantify drought occurrences as well as the pattern of temperature. The Bhalme and Mooley Drought Index (BMDI) and Student’s t-test were used to indicate if changes have occurred in the amount of rainfall and temperature (increase or decrease) over space and time in the study region. The BMDI was used because it is simple and able to depict historically documented droughts better than other indices. The student’s t-test was used to determine if the sub-period means of the series have altered significantly over time. Results show that the spatial and temporal occurrence and duration varied from one sub-area to another. Also, its intensity was mainly from mild to moderate. Results also show a consistent alternation between drought and wet years over the study period. The trend of temperature shows a tendency towards decreasing temperature during the period of study although it was not significant. The study concludes that the study region experiences climate variability that may well be part of global climate change

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Oral Exposure to Silver/Gold Nanoparticles: Status of RatLipid Profile, Serum Metabolites and Tissue Morphology

Study investigated the effect of oral administration of gold-silver nanoparticleson rat biochemical parameters and tissue morphology. Wistar rats weighingapproximately 180±7 g were randomly assigned into four groups. Animals in thecontrol group received distilled water once daily for 30 days while, those in thetreatment groups were administered 10, 50 and 100 mg kgG1 b.wt. gold-silvernanoparticles. The rats were sacrificed under slight anesthesia, 24 h after the lasttreatments. Blood and vital organs including the heart, kidney and liver werecollected and prepared for biochemical and histopathological determinations.Exposure to Ag/Au nanoparticles altered the rat serum lipid profile; lowering theHDL-C while raising the atherogenic index. Exposure of Ag/Au nanoparticles inrats caused significant alteration to the levels of serum albumin, total protein,bilirubin, urea and creatinine. The activities of alanine transaminase, aspartatetransaminase and alkaline phosphatase in rat serum and tissues were alsosignificantly altered by Ag/Au nanoparticles exposure. The histopathologicalexamination revealed inflammation and cellular degeneration caused by exposureto the Ag/Au nanoparticles. We show evidence that Ag/Au nanoparticles elevatedatherogenic index, as well as caused biochemical and morphological alterations,reminiscent of cellular injur

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere