The Dynamics of Revenue-Neutral Trade Liberalization

Abstract: The paper studies the dynamic welfare and macroeconomic effects of a revenue-neutral strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes. To this end, we employ a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open developing economy, featuring endogenous labor supply and sector-specific capital and land. In contrast to conventional results from tax-tariff reform studies based on fixed factor endowments, we find that instantaneous utility and the volume of trade fall on impact. Aggregate output rises in the short run, re ecting increased labor supply and a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors. In the long run, however, aggregate output declines, whereas instantaneous utility and the volume of trade increase compared to the pre-reform equilibrium. For a plausible calibration of the model, lifetime welfare is shown to increase.Tariff reform;coordinated tax-tariff reform;consumption tax reform;trade liberalization

Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution

The paper studies the revenue, efficiency, and distributional implications of a simple strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes so as to leave consumer prices unchanged. We employ a dynamic micro-founded macroeconomic model of a small open developing economy, which features an informal sector that cannot be taxed, a formal agricultural sector, and an import-substitution sector. The reform strategy increases government revenue, imports, exports, and the informal sector. In contrast to Emran and Stiglitz (2005), who ignore the dynamic effects of taxes and tariffs on factor markets, we find an efficiency gain, which is unevenly distributed. Existing generations benefit more than future generations, who (depending on pre-existing tax and tariff rates and the informal sector size) even may become worse off.Tariff reform;consumption tax reform;informal sector;home production;transitional dynamics;overlapping generations;second-best outcome

Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution

The paper studies the revenue, efficiency, and distributional implications of a simple strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes so as to leave consumer prices unchanged. We employ a dynamic micro-founded macroeconomic model of a small open developing economy, which features an informal sector that cannot be taxed, a formal agricultural sector, and an import-substitution sector. The reform strategy increases government revenue, imports, exports, and the informal sector. In contrast to Emran and Stiglitz (2005), who ignore the dynamic effects of taxes and tariffs on factor markets, we find an efficiency gain, which is unevenly distributed. Existing generations benefit more than future generations, who - depending on pre-existing tax and tariff rates and the informal sector size - even may become worse off.tariff reform, consumption tax reform, informal sector, home production, transitional dynamics, overlapping generations, second-best outcome

Students with Disabilities in Dutch VET: An Exploratory Study

[Excerpt] The inclusion of persons with disabilities in general programmes of vocational training has been called for by the ILO in international labour standards over many years, including standards relating to Human Resources Development and disability-related standards. This call is taken up strongly in the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities which calls on States Parties to take appropriate steps to enable persons with disabilities to have effective access to general tertiary education, vocational and life-long learning without discrimination and on an equal basis with others, and to ensure that reasonable accommodation is provided to that effect. While many countries have expressed commitment to this vision of inclusive vocational training, progress has been limited, even in countries which have adopted policies to promote, and there has been limited analysis of the factors hindering the effective implementation of such policies. It was thus appropriate for the ILO to undertake this exploratory study, to seek to pinpoint elements of policy and practice that might need to be addressed, if these policies on inclusion are to make a difference to persons with disabilities seeking to develop their skills with a view to obtaining decent jobs. The issues identified in this study will hopefully contribute to the wider policy debate, particularly on the matter of instructor preparation for disability inclusion and on the impact of funding arrangements. It will also hopefully stimulate further research to establish whether the patterns identified here are general patterns to be found and tackled elsewhere

Analysis of North Sea offshore wind power variability

This paper evaluates, for a 2030 scenario, the impact on onshore power systems in terms of the variability of the power generated by 81 GW of offshore wind farms installed in the North Sea. Meso-scale reanalysis data are used as input for computing the hourly power production for offshore wind farms, and this total production is analyzed to identify the largest aggregated hourly power variations. Based on publicly available information, a simplified representation of the coastal power grid is built for the countries bordering the North Sea. Wind farms less than 60 km from shore are connected radially to the mainland, while the rest are connected to a hypothetical offshore HVDC (High-Voltage Direct Current) power grid, designed such that wind curtailment does not exceed 1% of production. Loads and conventional power plants by technology and associated cost curves are computed for the various national power systems, based on 2030 projections. Using the MATLAB-based MATPOWER toolbox, the hourly optimal power flow for this regional hybrid AC/DC grid is computed for high, low and medium years from the meso-scale database. The largest net load variations are evaluated per market area and related to the extra load-following reserves that may be needed from conventional generators.Parts of this work were funded by Agentschap.NL, the Netherlands, now RVO.nl (Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland [25], under the project North Sea Transnational Grid (NSTG). The NSTG project is a cooperation between Delft University of Technology and the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands

A market-based transmission planning for HVDC grid—case study of the North Sea

There is significant interest in building HVDC transmission to carry out transnational power exchange and deliver cheaper electricity from renewable energy sources which are located far from the load centers. This paper presents a market-based approach to solve a long-term TEP for meshed VSC-HVDC grids that connect regional markets. This is in general a nonlinear, non-convex large-scale optimization problem with high computational burden, partly due to the many combinations of wind and load that become possible. We developed a two-step iterative algorithm that first selects a subset of operating hours using a clustering technique, and then seeks to maximize the social welfare of all regions and minimize the investment capital of transmission infrastructure subject to technical and economic constraints. The outcome of the optimization is an optimal grid design with a topology and transmission capacities that results in congestion revenue paying off investment by the end the project's economic lifetime. Approximations are made to allow an analytical solution to the problem and demonstrate that an HVDC pricing mechanism can be consistent with an AC counterpart. The model is used to investigate development of the offshore grid in the North Sea. Simulation results are interpreted in economic terms and show the effectiveness of our proposed two-step approach

Dynamically affine maps in positive characteristic

We study fixed points of iterates of dynamically affine maps (a generalisation of Latt\`es maps) over algebraically closed fields of positive characteristic $p$. We present and study certain hypotheses that imply a dichotomy for the Artin-Mazur zeta function of the dynamical system: it is either rational or non-holonomic, depending on specific characteristics of the map. We also study the algebraicity of the so-called tame zeta function, the generating function for periodic points of order coprime to $p$. We then verify these hypotheses for dynamically affine maps on the projective line, generalising previous work of Bridy, and, in arbitrary dimension, for maps on Kummer varieties arising from multiplication by integers on abelian varieties.Comment: Lois van der Meijden co-authored Appendix B. 31 p

Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table