Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationAnthropogenic climate change presents a pressing need for a deepened understanding of the factors contributing to vulnerability to natural hazards. This study contributes to understanding of the social dimensions of rapid-onset natural hazards by addressing the following research questions: How have historical developmental processes shaped hazards vulnerability? What are mechanisms underlying household vulnerability to rapid-onset hazards? How do large-scale, rapid-onset natural disasters influence long-term development outcomes for subjected communities? This study's first empirical analysis focuses on livelihoods as mechanisms of household resilience from Hurricane Mitch, utilizing the Nicaraguan Living Standards and Measurement Survey (LSMS). Findings indicate specific livelihood profiles to variably predict long-term recovery of disaster impacted households, with households reliant upon agricultural wage production exhibiting a lowered improvement in condition in comparison with households reliant on other livelihoods. This study's second empirical analysis, examining the hurricane's influence on international migration, finds international migration following Hurricane Mitch to be associated with heightened positive selectivity according to capital access. Although these specific livelihood related resilience mechanisms indicate resilience to be associated with high levels of capital ownership, analysis of recovery outcomes at the municipality level indicates a reduction in poverty in impacted communities and increases in consumption shares of those in lower consuming segments. The findings of this study's separate analysis, which appear at odds, are reconciled in discussion of other likely influencing factors

Non-Monetary Effects on Inflation Within the Price-Gap Model

The purpose of this thesis is to examine some of the various non-monetary effects on inflation within the framework of the price-gap model. Some of the non-monetary shocks that can affect inflation include wage adjustments, changes in basic commodity prices (for example, crude oil), changes in the exchange rates, and shifts in inflationary expectations. In April of 1989, a study was put out by the Federal Reserve (staff study 157) that examined the relationship between the current price level and an estimate of the long-run equilibrium price level. In the study, an indicator P* (pronounced P-star) was used to estimate what level of prices could be supported by the present money stock. The long-run price level was defined as P*=(MV*)/Q* where M ls the money stock, V* is the long-run equilibrium level of velocity, and Q* is the potential output level. From this the study relates the acceleration of the price level (or changes in the rate of inflation) to the price gap defined as (p-p*) where the lower-case variables are the natural logarithms of the upper-case counterparts. The authors were able to show that, in the long-run, the price gap gives a reasonable explaination of the dynamics of inflation. This thesis builds on the basic framework of the price gap model particularly with respect to short-run variations in the rate of inflation. The Fed study suggest: In the short-run, other characteristics of the economy such as the formation of expectations, lags in wage contracts and in aggregate demand, and the effects of changes in the exhange rate, may affect the inflation process. These factors thus may well affect the estimated dynamics of the model, … and (we) have focused instead on tying down the long-run price level. This thesis examines the effect of these short-run variations. The basic form of the model is specified as: change in rate of inflation = price gap + lagged changes in the rate of inflation + series of non-monetary disturbances The price gap and the lagged dependent variables are the basic form of the price-gap model used in the Fed study. The non-monetary disturbances to be used are basic commodity prices, exchange rates, wage adjustments, and inflationary expectations. The individual commodity prices that are examined are crude oil, lumber, cotton, copper and scrap steel. These commodities are chosen because they are basic industrial commodities that have the greatest effect on the manufacturing sector of the economy. In addition, a commodity price index is developed that incorporates price movements of the mentioned commodities into a single series. The effects of this index are also examined. Variations in a dollar index are used to model exchanges rates. The dollar index used is a trade weighted basket of 10 foreign currencies published by the Fedral Reserve and is a good proxy for the performance of the dollar relative to foreign currencies. The average weekly wage level for manufacturing is used to model wage adjustments and their impact on inflation. Lastly, an adaptive inflationary expectations disturbance is computed and is tested. All significant disturbances are incorporated into a general model a simulation was run to test the predictive power of the model. The thesis concludes that variations in commodity prices and wage adjustments have a significant effect on inflation in the short-run. Movements in the exchange rates have a milder effect on inflation while the expectations disturbance had no usefulness at all. The explanatory power of the price-gap model from the Fed study to the general model in this thesis was increased from about 33% to about 47% of total variation in inflation. The simulation showed that the model had reasonable predictive power. Overall, the thesis shows that the price-gap model is flexible enough to be adapted to short-run work

Non-Monetary Effects on Inflation Within the Price-Gap Model

The purpose of this thesis is to examine some of the various non-monetary effects on inflation within the framework of the price-gap model. Some of the non-monetary shocks that can affect inflation include wage adjustments, changes in basic commodity prices (for example, crude oil), changes in the exchange rates, and shifts in inflationary expectations. In April of 1989, a study was put out by the Federal Reserve (staff study 157) that examined the relationship between the current price level and an estimate of the long-run equilibrium price level. In the study, an indicator P* (pronounced P-star) was used to estimate what level of prices could be supported by the present money stock. The long-run price level was defined as P*=(MV*)/Q* where M ls the money stock, V* is the long-run equilibrium level of velocity, and Q* is the potential output level. From this the study relates the acceleration of the price level (or changes in the rate of inflation) to the price gap defined as (p-p*) where the lower-case variables are the natural logarithms of the upper-case counterparts. The authors were able to show that, in the long-run, the price gap gives a reasonable explaination of the dynamics of inflation. This thesis builds on the basic framework of the price gap model particularly with respect to short-run variations in the rate of inflation. The Fed study suggest: In the short-run, other characteristics of the economy such as the formation of expectations, lags in wage contracts and in aggregate demand, and the effects of changes in the exhange rate, may affect the inflation process. These factors thus may well affect the estimated dynamics of the model, … and (we) have focused instead on tying down the long-run price level. This thesis examines the effect of these short-run variations. The basic form of the model is specified as: change in rate of inflation = price gap + lagged changes in the rate of inflation + series of non-monetary disturbances The price gap and the lagged dependent variables are the basic form of the price-gap model used in the Fed study. The non-monetary disturbances to be used are basic commodity prices, exchange rates, wage adjustments, and inflationary expectations. The individual commodity prices that are examined are crude oil, lumber, cotton, copper and scrap steel. These commodities are chosen because they are basic industrial commodities that have the greatest effect on the manufacturing sector of the economy. In addition, a commodity price index is developed that incorporates price movements of the mentioned commodities into a single series. The effects of this index are also examined. Variations in a dollar index are used to model exchanges rates. The dollar index used is a trade weighted basket of 10 foreign currencies published by the Fedral Reserve and is a good proxy for the performance of the dollar relative to foreign currencies. The average weekly wage level for manufacturing is used to model wage adjustments and their impact on inflation. Lastly, an adaptive inflationary expectations disturbance is computed and is tested. All significant disturbances are incorporated into a general model a simulation was run to test the predictive power of the model. The thesis concludes that variations in commodity prices and wage adjustments have a significant effect on inflation in the short-run. Movements in the exchange rates have a milder effect on inflation while the expectations disturbance had no usefulness at all. The explanatory power of the price-gap model from the Fed study to the general model in this thesis was increased from about 33% to about 47% of total variation in inflation. The simulation showed that the model had reasonable predictive power. Overall, the thesis shows that the price-gap model is flexible enough to be adapted to short-run work

Master of Science

thesisThis study assesses how the composition of migrant workers from the Philippines varies with migration prevalence within Filipino communities. In doing so, this study tests the hypothesis of past cumulative causation scholars that increased migration prevalence results in a decline in migrant selectivity. The Philippines has a social, political and geographic context; different from that of many other countries characterized by high migration. This study considers whether these different context;s and contingencies might alter the process by which the social phenomenon of cumulative causation occurs. Multiple fixed effects models were constructed at the municipality level with the dependent variable in each model relating to individuals' ability to secure a job or to ties and responsibilities that individuals have to their origin community (marital status, age, sex, years of education). This study finds that consistent with cumulative causation theory as posited by Douglas S. Massey, increased prevalence did yield a decline in selectivity for education and marital status. However, migration prevalence had no effect on the gender composition of migrants, while time did impact the gender composition, suggesting sustained selectivity by gender

Children\u27s Neighbourhood Geographies: Examining Children\u27s Perception and Use of Their Neighbourhood Environments for Healthy Activity

This dissertation examines children’s everyday neighbourhood activities, and the role of the local environment in supporting or limiting their healthy behaviours. Research from the last two decades has documented a dramatic decline in the time children spend playing in their neighbourhood settings, and engaging in local active and independent travel. Traditionally, neighbourhood-based activities have fostered key developmental and health outcomes, including higher levels of physical fitness, the negotiation of new social relationships, and increased cognitive and environmental competence. The processes of carving out neighbourhood ‘domains’ for independent activity and establishing community relationships are also linked to the development of a healthy self-identity and attachment to place. The loss of neighbourhood experiences may therefore have adverse consequences for children’s health and well-being. This study identifies and investigates patterns in children’s (aged 7 to 13 years) environmental perception, activity and mobility in various neighbourhoods within the mid-sized Canadian city of London, Ontario. Children’s local activities are examined through three complementary case studies utilizing a broad range of experiential, visual and qualitative tools, coupled with objective activity monitoring via portable GPS. Patterns in perception and behaviour were evident, but findings reinforce that children’s neighbourhood activities are highly individual and complex. Children were attuned to locally available activity opportunities, but neighbourhood engagements were generally limited and largely passive in nature. Recreational and commercial sites were identified as highly prized local destinations, but study neighbourhoods did not fully support the children’s diverse preferences. Many of the criteria of ‘child-friendly’ environments were lacking in study neighbourhoods. Findings also confirm that neighbourhood activity and mobility is influenced not only by individual characteristics such as a child’s age, but by neighbourhood social and physical conditions, as well as parent perceptions of this environment. Permission from parents for active, independent travel strongly predicted neighbourhood activity, generally expanding the size of a child’s domain and the time spent in local settings. On the whole, however, children spent little of their free time in neighbourhood environments; pedestrian-based domains were generally very small, comprised primarily of the area immediately surrounding their home. This research provides additional evidence that the local domains of children are shrinking, and that the neighbourhood is no longer a primary setting for childhood activities. These findings suggest that the primary landscapes of play are changing in ways that may be detrimental to children’s healthy development

Bank Efficiency Ratios - Can They Be Used To Reliably Predict Future Bank Performance?

The aim of this study is to assess the predictive ability of the bank efficiency ratio. The popular press, analysts and investors (individuals, institutions and other bank‘s looking for M&A targets) often use the bank efficiency ratio as a current measure of how efficiently a bank earns a dollar of profit for each dollar of expenditure. Implied in the usage of the ratio is that a bank that is performing well today will continue to perform better than peers in the future. To assess the predictive ability of the ratio, I grouped banks into quintiles of profit performance and used an ordered logit model with independent variables based on past literature on the determinants of bank profitability to predict the future relative performance of the bank. The efficiency ratio is found to be directionally correct in that a bank with a better relative efficiency ratio today tended to be a higher relative performer in the future. However, the efficiency ratio is not found to be the best indicator of future bank profitability. A bank‘s current ROA is found to be the most useful indicator in predicting the future relative performance of a bank

Tool for Observing Play Outdoors (TOPO): A New Typology for Capturing Children\u27s Play Behaviors in Outdoor Environments

Engagement in play has been definitively linked to the healthy development of children across physical, social, cognitive, and emotional domains. The enriched nature of high-quality outdoor play environments can afford a greater diversity of opportunities for play than indoor settings. To more effectively design outdoor play settings, we must better understand how the physical environment supports, or hinders, the different types of play which suit children\u27s needs and interests. However, play typologies or observation tools available to date do not adequately capture the unique characteristics of outdoor play. This paper outlines the development and testing of the Tool for Observing Play Outdoors (TOPO), a new typology of outdoor play, as well as a systematic field observational protocol which can be used to effectively depict children\u27s behaviors in outdoor spaces, as well as evaluate the play environment itself. The tool can be deployed in either a collapsed or expanded form to serve the needs of a wide range of studies and environments. This new tool represents a significant advance in the ability to fully and effectively study and plan outdoor play environments to provide more diverse, high-quality play settings that will support the healthy development of children across the spectrum

Examining the Social and Built Environment Factors Influencing Children’s Independent Use of Their Neighborhoods and the Experience of Local Settings as Child-Friendly

Neighborhoods have traditionally served as important settings for children’s independent activities, but use has declined dramatically. Global positioning system (GPS) monitors, activity diaries, annotated maps, and Google Earth–enabled interviews captured the neighborhood perceptions, usage, and independent activity ranges of twenty-three children (nine to twelve years) from London, Canada. While few participants used neighborhood settings on a habitual basis, local parks and homes of nearby friends were important independent destinations. Usage was strongly influenced by positive and negative social conditions, but local environments did not generally cater well to the shifting interests of resident children. Embedding child-friendly affordances through neighborhood planning may improve children’s experience and independent use of local settings