Whole-Farm Approaches to a Safety Net

In recent farm policy debates, proposals for a whole-farm revenue safety net program have been put forward that could provide a farm-income safety net for a wide variety of farming activities. These proposals include income- stabilization accounts and whole-farm revenue insurance. Risk protection from income-stabilization accounts would depend on the reserves in individual accounts and the structure of program benefits. Experience with farm savings accounts in Canada and Australia suggests that lack of adequate account balances and buildup of balances beyond the level required for risk management can reduce program effectiveness. Whole-farm revenue insurance could overcome these problems since coverage would not depend on the farmer's ability to build an account balance and benefits would only be realized when the farmer suffers a drop in income. However, the complexity of factors affecting income variability raises questions about the feasibility of a whole-farm insurance plan.Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Private Crop Insurers and the Reinsurance Fund Allocation Decision

This research investigates the strategic behavior of private crop insurance firms reinsured by the USDA through the Standard Reinsurance Agreement. This arrangement allows the private firm to strategically allocate individual policies into different risk sharing arrangements. Thus, firm earnings are conditioned upon accurately forecasting policy loss experience. Our analysis begins with models investigating the characteristics explaining the placement of policies into the assigned risk fund. Then a simulation model of the SRA is used to compare the post-SRA returns of actual firm allocations to two alternative allocation strategies based on aggregate models and a policy-level econometric forecasting model.Risk, insurance, reinsurance, logit, policy

Coupling of the HPA and HPG Axes

The Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) and –Gonadal (HPG) axes have been considered mutually inhibitory; however, emerging evidence supports the proposition that this might not necessarily be the case. This idea is termed “coupling,” in which the HPA-HPG axis are mutually activated or deactivated. Coupling is examined across three data sets with different time-courses of stress exposure, and results demonstrate HPA-HPG co-activation occurs. Furthermore, stress exposure influences this relationship. The discussion shows how it is physiologically possible to have positive coupling or co-activation between these axes according to complex regulatory feedback systems and overlapping neural structures. Findings are interpreted developmentally, because adolescence may be a critical time for this co-activation to occur. Finally, the discussion emphasizes an individual difference perspective because each individual differs in the duration and type of stress they experience, and these exerted individualized effects on HPA-HPG coupling

The Return of Great-Power Competition—Cold War Lessons about Strategic Antisubmarine Warfare and Defense of Sea Lines of Communication

American Cold War planning experienced important failures in strategic intelligence and in the way planners used that intelligence. These shortcomings were overcome through massive material investment, technological advantage, and good fortune, but in the twenty-first-century era of great-power competition the Navy cannot count on these advantages. More-careful and better-integrated intelligence-planning processes would improve our chances of success greatly

Characteristics and Risk Management Needs of Limited-Resource and Socially Disadvantaged Farmers

Small U.S. farms and those run by socially disadvantaged minority operators tend not to purchase insurance or to participate in insurance-type programs operated by USDA. This report traces the lack of use of such risk management measures to several characteristics of such farmers, who include females, blacks, American Indians, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and operators of Spanish origin. These farmers tend, more than the typical U.S. farm, to raise livestock rather than crops, and there are no government-sponsored insurance-type programs for livestock.risk management, crop insurance, limited-resource farmers, limited-opportunity farmers, small farms, socially disadvantaged farmers, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Policy Implications of Crop Yield and Revenue Variability at Differing Levels of Disaggregation

Revenue variability at different levels of aggregation has been the focus of several proposals to reform U.S. commodity programs with the 2007 farm bill. In this paper, we estimate revenue variabilityyear-to-year deviations from expected revenuefor corn, soybeans, and cotton at four levels of aggregation: national, state, county and farm. We examine the factors that cause revenue variability and how differences across crops and regions would affect producers risks. We find that national-level revenue variability is nearly double national-level yield variability. Spatial disaggregation increases price and yield variability, but yield variability increases more rapidly than price and revenue variability. A hypothetical national-level revenue program would reduce risk at the average farm-level by slightly more than 8 percent for corn, about 7 percent for soybeans and about 21 percent for cotton. If one integrates farm-level revenue coverage with the national-level program the percent risk reduction more than doubles for both corn and soybeans. Although the increase in risk reduction between the simple national and the integrated program is proportionately less for cotton, the total risk reduction for cotton is the greatest among the three crops.Agricultural and Food Policy,

PARTICIPATION IN MULTIPLE-PERIL CROP INSURANCE: RISK ASSESSMENTS AND RISK PREFERENCES OF CRANBERRY GROWERS

To investigate the poor participation rate of cranberry growers in the multiple-peril crop insurance program, a sample of 15 Massachusetts growers was interviewed. According to their risk preferences, a much greater proportion of growers should have insured, than actually did. A possible solution is to match the distribution used by the insurer closer to that believed by the grower. Adjusting each grower's historical yield series for trend brought the historical and subjective mean yields much closer. However, an aggregate test found the effect of adjustment to be insignificant, implying that the avenue for increased participation lies elsewhere.Risk and Uncertainty,