The unbiasedness and efficiency tests of the rational expectations hypothesis

This study examines the direct tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH). Pesando (1975) employs the Livingston survey data of business economists and reaches the rejection of rationality and consistency but not rejection of the efficiency. Analyzing the same data, Carlson (1977) rejects these three hypotheses that Pesando tests when he uses expectations on CPI, but doesn’t reject hypotheses as he uses expectations on WPI. Turnovsky (1980) tests the unbiasedness property of the REH using Livingston data and finds different results for the different periods of data. Friedman (1980) applies the unbiasedness and efficiency tests using data of The Goldsmith-Nagan Bond and Money Market Letter and reaches mixed results for the REH. Ball and Croushore (1995) use the several survey results and univariate forecasting models. Their results provide a strong rejection of the REH.Rational expectations hypothesis, expectations, unbiasedness, efficiency, Box-Jenkins forecasting model

Energy tax harmonization in EU: Time series and panel data evidence

This paper searches statistical evidence of tax harmonization initiated and motivated by EU Commission since 1980. The purpose of energy tax harmonization is to reach more efficient use of energy among members and thereby to establish more competitive markets in EU. The tax harmonization in EU, in this work, is analyzed through convergence tests to see whether total taxes applied to oil and diesel used by industries and households are adjusted among EU members. This study, therefore, employs minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root tests with structural breaks developed by Lee and Strazicich (2003). Upon observations the data for panels, it is revealed that panels for oil industry tax, diesel industry tax, oil household tax and diesel household tax converge to average total taxes of members. Time series data for individual countries, on the other hand, give both convergence and non-convergence results.oil and diesel taxes, households and industries, harmonization, convergence, European Union, LM unit root tests with structural breaks

Random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity? Evidence from literature and an application for Turkish economy

This paper observes the Turkish household’ consumption data to see whether it follows random walk or not. The quarterly data covers the period from 1987:1 to 2003:4. By employing the direct tests for random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity, this study results in both excess sensitivity and excess smoothness and rejects random walk hypothesis for the Turkish consumption pattern.consumption, fiscal policies, seasonality, stationarity, random walk, excess smoothness, excess sensitivity

Design and development of an emulated human cognition using novel 3D neural networks

This paper describes the development of an Emulated Human Cognition (EHC) which is designed and based on a replicated human brain with a right- and a left- hand lobe, one a deductive side and the other a generic one. Right-hand lobe consists of a newly designed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a multi-hidden layer topology. Left-hand lobe is a newly designed 3-dimensional cellular neural network. The input variables presented to the EHC are immediately analysed for it to decide which lobe should be activated. The EHC, when fully developed, has almost an unlimited memory capacity and is capable of immediate recall of any data in its almost unlimited memory locations. EHC has been used in several applications where neural networks have been used to establish relationship between two or more sets of variables. In this paper the EHC has been used to forecast demand for a given product

Exploring the Organizational Effects of Directors\u27 Embeddedness in Board Networks

In this dissertation, I explore how top executives’ and directors’ embeddedness in corporate elite networks within and between organizations’ boards of directors influence organizational strategy and policy. In the first study, I conduct a comprehensive review of the governance literature using both a traditional narrative approach as well as a bibliometric main path analysis, which traces the development and diffusion of scholarly knowledge on corporate elite networks. In the second study, drawing from network theory and behavioral governance research, I introduce a methodology that allows researchers to model intraboard networks by measuring the strength of ties among members of boards of directors based on objective formative indicators of the constructs of social similarity, social status, social exchange, and social history. Next, I use this technique to explore the antecedents and consequences of intraorganizational network characteristics of boards. Finally, in the third study, I examine the joint influence of interlocking directorates and intraorganizational networks of boards of directors on interorganizational imitation of corporate strategic activity. Results show that directors’ centrality within a focal organization’s board and those of its alters are important predictors of interorganizational imitation of corporate strategic activity. I contribute to the strategic management and organization theory literatures by advancing our understanding of the relationship of corporate elite networks with organizational strategy and policy, and by introducing a new approach to modeling directors’ networks in corporate governance research

Critical Theory-Based Approaches in Geography Teaching Departments in Turkey

The aim of this study is to understand the relationships between critical theory-based approaches and its implementations in geography teaching departments in Turkey. Critical theory dates back to 1930s and has developed over time aiming to deal with institutions, culture and society through critical lens. Currently, critical theory-based research designs and research paradigms inspire a large number of books, articles especially in qualitative researches due to their beneficial outcomes for the vulnerable, the poor and the othered segments of society with which critical researches are mainly concerned.In the study, firstly it was described critical theory and critical research characteristics. Secondly, human geography and critical research relationships covered. Thirdly, human geography courses in geography teaching departments in Turkey explained in connection with critical theory. The relationships between these courses, critical theory and critical research were tried to explore. The study emphasized the importance of critical theory in courses in human geography considering far-reaching effects of critical theory on humanities, social sciences and art studies. Human geography has and should have close connections with other disciplines and sub-disciplines drawing on multiple theories, concepts and approaches

Finite element modeling of tidal flow and bed -load transport in the Great Bay Estuarine system, New Hampshire

Current, sea level and bed-load transport are investigated in the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire---a shallow, well-mixed system with low freshwater input. Main channel tidal currents are over 2 m/sec, and its dynamic balance is dominated by the pressure gradient and bottom friction. Current and sea level forced by the M2, M4, M6 tides at the estuary mouth are simulated by two numerical models---a three-dimensional, harmonic model that solves the linearized shallow water equations (FUNDY5); and a vertically averaged, time stepping, non-linear model (ADAM). ADAM makes use of a kinematic assumption (that is, the local and advective accelerations are neglected) and accounts for flooding and dewatering over tidal flats by employing a groundwater component. FUNDY5 is used as a preliminary diagnostic tool to identify the general properties of the estuarine flow and to identify grid problems. ADAM is used as a prognostic model to simulate the tidal hydrodynamics of the estuarine system. The accuracy of the hydrodynamic predictions is evaluated by comparison with ten tidal elevation and four cross-section averaged current measurements. The results show that the kinematic assumption holds for the lower and middle sections of the estuary but fails in the upper sections, due in part to the increased importance of accelerations in these sections. Residuals (time averages) of currents are also investigated and yielded flood directed pathways over the shallow flats and ebb directed pathways in the deep channels. Currents simulated by ADAM are then used to model bed-load transport in the vicinity of a rapidly growing shoal located in the main channel of the lower system. Consisting of coarse sediments, the shoal must be dredged every 5--9 years. Two approaches are taken---an Eulerian parametric method in which elemental bed-load flux vectors are calculated at each time step; and a Lagrangian particle tracking approach in which a finite number of sediment particles are released at different times in the M2 cycle and tracked. Both methods yield pathways and accumulations in agreement with the observed shoal formation and the long-term rate of sediment accumulation in the shoal area