Examination of Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

We report here on a continuation of work on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)model described in [Fenton, Littlewood et al. 1998]. As explained in the previous deliverable, our model concerns one part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems. We have produced a first complete, functioning version of our BBN model by eliciting a large numerical node probability table (NPT) required for our ‘Design Process Performance’ variable. The requirement for such large numerical NPTs poses some difficult questions about how, in general, large NPTs should be elicited from domain experts. We report about the methods we have devised to support the expert in building and validating a BBN. On the one hand, we have proceeded by eliciting approximate descriptions of the expert’s probabilistic beliefs, in terms of properties like stochastic orderings among distributions; on the other hand, we have explored ways of presenting to the expert visual and algebraic descriptions of relations among variables in the BBN, to assist the expert in an ongoing assessment of the validity of the BBN

Two philosophies for solving non-linear equations in algebraic cryptanalysis

Algebraic Cryptanalysis [45] is concerned with solving of particular systems of multivariate non-linear equations which occur in cryptanalysis. Many different methods for solving such problems have been proposed in cryptanalytic literature: XL and XSL method, Gröbner bases, SAT solvers, as well as many other. In this paper we survey these methods and point out that the main working principle in all of them is essentially the same. One quantity grows faster than another quantity which leads to a “phase transition” and the problem becomes efficiently solvable. We illustrate this with examples from both symmetric and asymmetric cryptanalysis. In this paper we point out that there exists a second (more) general way of formulating algebraic attacks through dedicated coding techniques which involve redundancy with addition of new variables. This opens numerous new possibilities for the attackers and leads to interesting optimization problems where the existence of interesting equations may be somewhat deliberately engineered by the attacker

Origin of Hysteresis in a Proximity Josephson Junction

We investigate hysteresis in the transport properties of Superconductor - Normal metal - Superconductor (S-N-S) junctions at low temperatures by measuring directly the electron temperature in the normal metal. Our results demonstrate unambiguously that the hysteresis results from an increase of the normal metal electron temperature once the junction switches to the resistive state. In our geometry, the electron temperature increase is governed by the thermal resistance of the superconducting electrodes of the junction

Calorimetric readout of a superconducting proximity-effect thermometer

A proximity-effect thermometer measures the temperature dependent critical supercurrent in a long superconductor - normal metal - superconductor (SNS) Josephson junction. Typically, the transition from the superconducting to the normal state is detected by monitoring the appearance of a voltage across the junction. We describe a new approach to detect the transition based on the temperature increase in the resistive state due to Joule heating. Our method increases the sensitivity and is especially applicable for temperatures below about 300 mK.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. To appear in the proceedings of the Conference on Micro- and Nanocryogenics (LT25 satellite) organized in Espoo, Finland (2008

Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

First DENIS I-band extragalactic catalog

This paper presents the first I-band photometric catalog of the brightest galaxies extracted from the Deep Near Infrared Survey of the Southern Sky (DENIS) An automatic galaxy recognition program has been developed to build this provisional catalog. The method is based on a discriminating analysis. The most discriminant parameter to separate galaxies from stars is proved to be the peak intensity of an object divided by its array. Its efficiency is better than 99%. The nominal accuracy for galaxy coordinates calculated with the Guide Star Catalog is about 6 arcseconds. The cross-identification with galaxies available in the Lyon-Meudon Extragalactic DAtabase (LEDA) allows a calibraton of the I-band photometry with the sample of Mathewson et Al. Thus, the catalog contains total I-band magnitude, isophotal diameter, axis ratio, position angle and a rough estimate of the morphological type code for 20260 galaxies. The internal completeness of this catalog reaches magnitude $I_{lim}=14.5$, with a photometric accuracy of $\sim 0.18m$. 25% of the Southern sky has been processed in this study. This quick look analysis allows us to start a radio and spectrographic follow-up long before the end of the survey.Comment: 13 pages, 17 figures, to appear A&A Supl.

Systematic Construction of Nonlinear Product Attacks on Block Ciphers

A major open problem in block cipher cryptanalysis is discovery of new invariant properties of complex type. Recent papers show that this can be achieved for SCREAM, Midori64, MANTIS-4, T-310 or for DES with modified S-boxes. Until now such attacks are hard to find and seem to happen by some sort of incredible coincidence. In this paper we abstract the attack from any particular block cipher. We study these attacks in terms of transformations on multivariate polynomials. We shall demonstrate how numerous variables including key variables may sometimes be eliminated and at the end two very complex Boolean polynomials will become equal. We present a general construction of an attack where multiply all the polynomials lying on one or several cycles. Then under suitable conditions the non-linear functions involved will be eliminated totally. We obtain a periodic invariant property holding for any number of rounds. A major difficulty with invariant attacks is that they typically work only for some keys. In T-310 our attack works for any key and also in spite of the presence of round constants

Studies on the fungal diseases in crustaceans I. Lagenidum scyllae sp. nov. isolated from cultivated ova and larvae of the mangrove crab (Scylla serrata)

Modelling of super-heated steam drying of alfalfa. COST-915 Copernicus CIPA-CT94--0120 workshop on Food Quality Modellin