Does plasmid-based beta-lactam resistance increase E. coli infections: Modelling addition and replacement mechanisms

Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become more prevalent during past decades. Yet, it is unknown whether such infections occur in addition to infections with antibiotic-susceptible bacteria, thereby increasing the incidence of infections, or whether they replace such infections, leaving the total incidence unaffected. Observational longitudinal studies cannot separate both mechanisms. Using plasmid-based beta-lactam resistant E. coli as example we applied mathematical modelling to investigate whether seven biological mechanisms would lead to replacement or addition of infections. We use a mathematical neutral null model of individuals colonized with susceptible and/or resistant E. coli, with two mechanisms implying a fitness cost, i.e., increased clearance and decreased growth of resistant strains, and five mechanisms benefitting resistance, i.e., 1) increased virulence, 2) increased transmission, 3) decreased clearance of resistant strains, 4) increased rate of horizontal plasmid transfer, and 5) increased clearance of susceptible E. coli due to antibiotics. Each mechanism is modelled separately to estimate addition to or replacement of antibiotic-susceptible infections. Fitness costs cause resistant strains to die out if other strain characteristics are maintained equal. Under the assumptions tested, increased virulence is the only mechanism that increases the total number of infections. Other benefits of resistance lead to replacement of susceptible infections without changing the total number of infections. As there is no biological evidence that plasmid-based beta-lactam resistance increases virulence, these findings suggest that the burden of disease is determined by attributable effects of resistance rather than by an increase in the number of infections

Early COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness of XBB.1.5 vaccine against hospitalisation and admission to intensive care, the Netherlands, 9 October to 5 December 2023

We present early vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates of the 2023 seasonal COVID-19 XBB.1.5 vaccine against COVID-19 hospitalisation and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) in previously vaccinated adults≥60 years in the Netherlands. We compared vaccination status of 2,050 hospitalisations including 92 ICU admissions with age group-, sex-, region- and date-specific population vaccination coverage between 9 October and 5 December 2023. VE against hospitalisation was 70.7% (95% CI: 66.6–74.3), VE against ICU admission was 73.3% (95% CI: 42.2–87.6)

Care after pancreatic resection according to an algorithm for early detection and minimally invasive management of pancreatic fistula versus current practice (PORSCH-trial):design and rationale of a nationwide stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial

Background: Pancreatic resection is a major abdominal operation with 50% risk of postoperative complications. A common complication is pancreatic fistula, which may have severe clinical consequences such as postoperative bleeding, organ failure and death. The objective of this study is to investigate whether implementation of an algorithm for early detection and minimally invasive management of pancreatic fistula may improve outcomes after pancreatic resection. Methods: This is a nationwide stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized, superiority trial, designed in adherence to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) guidelines. During a period of 22 months, all Dutch centers performing pancreatic surgery will cross over in a randomized order from current practice to best practice according to the algorithm. This evidence-based and consensus-based algorithm will provide daily multilevel advice on the management of patients after pancreatic resection (i.e. indication for abdominal imaging, antibiotic treatment, percutaneous drainage and removal of abdominal drains). The algorithm is designed to aid early detection and minimally invasive step-up management of postoperative pancreatic fistula. Outcomes of current practice will be compared with outcomes after implementation of the algorithm. The primary outcome is a composite of major complications (i.e. post-pancreatectomy bleeding, new-onset organ failure and death) and will be measured in a sample size of at least 1600 patients undergoing pancreatic resection. Secondary endpoints include the individual components of the primary endpoint and other clinical outcomes, healthcare resource utilization and costs analysis. Follow up will be up to 90 days after pancreatic resection. Discussion: It is hypothesized that a structured nationwide implementation of a dedicated algorithm for early detection and minimally invasive step-up management of postoperative pancreatic fistula will reduce the risk of major complications and death after pancreatic resection, as compared to current practice. Trial registration: Netherlands Trial Register: NL 6671. Registered on 16 December 2017

Impact of Complications After Pancreatoduodenectomy on Mortality, Organ Failure, Hospital Stay, and Readmission Analysis of a Nationwide Audit:Analysis of a Nationwide Audit

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of individual complications on mortality, organ failure, hospital stay, and readmission after pancreatoduodenectomy. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: An initial complication may provoke a sequence of adverse events potentially leading to mortality after pancreatoduodenectomy. This study was conducted to aid prioritization of quality improvement initiatives. METHODS: Data from consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (2014-2017) were extracted from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated for the association of each complication (ie, postoperative pancreatic fistula, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage, bile leakage, delayed gastric emptying, wound infection, and pneumonia) with each unfavorable outcome [ie, in-hospital mortality, organ failure, prolonged hospital stay (>75th percentile), and unplanned readmission), whereas adjusting for confounders and other complications. The PAF represents the proportion of an outcome that could be prevented if a complication would be eliminated completely. RESULTS: Overall, 2620 patients were analyzed. In-hospital mortality occurred in 95 patients (3.6%), organ failure in 198 patients (7.6%), and readmission in 427 patients (16.2%). Postoperative pancreatic fistula and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage had the greatest independent impact on mortality [PAF 25.7% (95% CI 13.4-37.9) and 32.8% (21.9-43.8), respectively] and organ failure [PAF 21.8% (95% CI 12.9-30.6) and 22.1% (15.0-29.1), respectively]. Delayed gastric emptying had the greatest independent impact on prolonged hospital stay [PAF 27.6% (95% CI 23.5-31.8)]. The impact of individual complications on unplanned readmission was smaller than 11%. CONCLUSION: Interventions focusing on postoperative pancreatic fistula and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage may have the greatest impact on in-hospital mortality and organ failure. To prevent prolonged hospital stay, initiatives should in addition focus on delayed gastric emptying

Care after pancreatic resection according to an algorithm for early detection and minimally invasive management of pancreatic fistula versus current practice (PORSCH-trial): design and rationale of a nationwide stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic resection is a major abdominal operation with 50% risk of postoperative complications. A common complication is pancreatic fistula, which may have severe clinical consequences such as postoperative bleeding, organ failure and death. The objective of this study is to investigate whether implementation of an algorithm for early detection and minimally invasive management of pancreatic fistula may improve outcomes after pancreatic resection. METHODS: This is a nationwide stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized, superiority trial, designed in adherence to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) guidelines. During a period of 22 months, all Dutch centers performing pancreatic surgery will cross over in a randomized order from current practice to best practice according to the algorithm. This evidence-based and consensus-based algorithm will provide da

Spatial structure and non-linear dynamics of light pulses in free-electron lasers

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Does plasmid-based beta-lactam resistance increase E. coli infections: Modelling addition and replacement mechanisms.

Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become more prevalent during past decades. Yet, it is unknown whether such infections occur in addition to infections with antibiotic-susceptible bacteria, thereby increasing the incidence of infections, or whether they replace such infections, leaving the total incidence unaffected. Observational longitudinal studies cannot separate both mechanisms. Using plasmid-based beta-lactam resistant E. coli as example we applied mathematical modelling to investigate whether seven biological mechanisms would lead to replacement or addition of infections. We use a mathematical neutral null model of individuals colonized with susceptible and/or resistant E. coli, with two mechanisms implying a fitness cost, i.e., increased clearance and decreased growth of resistant strains, and five mechanisms benefitting resistance, i.e., 1) increased virulence, 2) increased transmission, 3) decreased clearance of resistant strains, 4) increased rate of horizontal plasmid transfer, and 5) increased clearance of susceptible E. coli due to antibiotics. Each mechanism is modelled separately to estimate addition to or replacement of antibiotic-susceptible infections. Fitness costs cause resistant strains to die out if other strain characteristics are maintained equal. Under the assumptions tested, increased virulence is the only mechanism that increases the total number of infections. Other benefits of resistance lead to replacement of susceptible infections without changing the total number of infections. As there is no biological evidence that plasmid-based beta-lactam resistance increases virulence, these findings suggest that the burden of disease is determined by attributable effects of resistance rather than by an increase in the number of infections