Development and Evaluation of a Simulation-Based Algorithm to Optimize the Planning of Interim Analyses for Clinical Trials in ALS

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Late-phase clinical trials for neurodegenerative diseases have a low probability of success. In this study, we introduce an algorithm that optimizes the planning of interim analyses for clinical trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) to better use the time and resources available and minimize the exposure of patients to ineffective or harmful drugs. METHODS: A simulation-based algorithm was developed to determine the optimal interim analysis scheme by integrating prior knowledge about the success rate of ALS clinical trials with drug-specific information obtained in early-phase studies. Interim analysis schemes were optimized by varying the number and timing of interim analyses, together with their decision rules about when to stop a trial. The algorithm was applied retrospectively to 3 clinical trials that investigated the efficacy of diaphragm pacing or ceftriaxone on survival in patients with ALS. Outcomes were additionally compared with conventional interim designs. RESULTS: We evaluated 183-1,351 unique interim analysis schemes for each trial. Application of the optimal designs correctly established lack of efficacy, would have concluded all studies 1.2-19.4 months earlier (reduction of 4.6%-57.7% in trial duration), and could have reduced the number of randomized patients by 1.7%-58.1%. By means of simulation, we illustrate the efficiency for other treatment scenarios. The optimized interim analysis schemes outperformed conventional interim designs in most scenarios. DISCUSSION: Our algorithm uses prior knowledge to determine the uncertainty of the expected treatment effect in ALS clinical trials and optimizes the planning of interim analyses. Improving futility monitoring in ALS could minimize the exposure of patients to ineffective or harmful treatments and result in significant ethical and efficiency gains

Expression of survivin detected by immunohistochemistry in the cytoplasm and in the nucleus is associated with prognosis of leiomyosarcoma and synovial sarcoma patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Survivin, a member of the inhibitor of apoptosis-protein family suppresses apoptosis and regulates cell division. It is strongly overexpressed in the vast majority of cancers. We were interested if survivin detected by immunohistochemistry has prognostic relevance especially for patients of the two soft tissue sarcoma entities leiomyosarcoma and synovial sarcoma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Tumors of leiomyosarcoma (n = 24) and synovial sarcoma patients (n = 26) were investigated for their expression of survivin by immunohistochemistry. Survivin expression was assessed in the cytoplasm and the nucleus of tumor cells using an immunoreactive scoring system (IRS).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We detected a survivin expression (IRS > 2) in the cytoplasm of 20 leiomyosarcomas and 22 synovial sarcomas and in the nucleus of 12 leiomyosarcomas and 9 synovial sarcomas, respectively. There was no significant difference between leiomyosarcoma and synovial sarcoma samples in their cytoplasmic or nuclear expression of survivin. Next, all sarcoma patients were separated in four groups according to their survivin expression in the cytoplasm and in the nucleus: group 1: negative (IRS 0 to 2); group 2: weak (IRS 3 to 4); group 3: moderate (IRS 6 to 8); group 4: strong (IRS 9 to 12). In a multivariate Cox's regression hazard analysis survivin expression detected in the cytoplasm or in the nucleus was significantly associated with overall survival of patients in group 3 (RR = 5.7; P = 0.004 and RR = 5.7; P = 0.022, respectively) compared to group 2 (reference). Patients whose tumors showed both a moderate/strong expression of survivin in the cytoplasm and a moderate expression of survivin in the nucleus (in both compartments IRS ≥ 6) possessed a 24.8-fold increased risk of tumor-related death (P = 0.003) compared to patients with a weak expression of survivin both in the cytoplasm and in the nucleus.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Survivin protein expression in the cytoplasma and in the nucleus detected by immunohistochemistry is significantly associated with prognosis of leiomyosarcoma and synovial sarcoma patients.</p

Clinical characteristics of women captured by extending the definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage with 'refractoriness to treatment': a cohort study

Background: The absence of a uniform and clinically relevant definition of severe postpartum haemorrhage hampers comparative studies and optimization of clinical management. The concept of persistent postpartum haemorrhage, based on refractoriness to initial first-line treatment, was proposed as an alternative to common definitions that are either based on estimations of blood loss or transfused units of packed red blood cells (RBC). We compared characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage captured by these three types of definitions. Methods: In this large retrospective cohort study in 61 hospitals in the Netherlands we included 1391 consecutive women with postpartum haemorrhage who received either ≥4 units of RBC or a multicomponent transfusion. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of women with severe postpartum haemorrhage defined as persistent postpartum haemorrhage were compared to definitions based on estimated blood loss or transfused units of RBC within 24 h following birth. Adverse maternal outcome was a composite of maternal mortality, hysterectomy, arterial embolisation and intensive care unit admission. Results: One thousand two hundred sixty out of 1391 women (90.6%) with postpartum haemorrhage fulfilled the definition of persistent postpartum haemorrhage. The majority, 820/1260 (65.1%), fulfilled this definition within 1 h following birth, compared to 819/1391 (58.7%) applying the definition of ≥1 L blood loss and 37/845 (4.4%) applying the definition of ≥4 units of RBC. The definition persistent postpartum haemorrhage captured 430/471 adverse maternal outcomes (91.3%), compared to 471/471 (100%) for ≥1 L blood loss and 383/471 (81.3%) for ≥4 units of RBC. Persistent postpartum haemorrhage did not capture all adverse outcomes because of missing data on timing of initial, first-line treatment. Conclusion: The definition persistent postpartum haemo

Het godspredikaat "Het begin en het einde" bij Flavius Josephus en in de Openbaring van Johannes /

Includes bibliographical references

The Epistle to the Hebrews: Faith Means Perseverance

In terms of lifestyle, the first Christians were, according to the New Testament, in constant interaction with their non-Christian environment. This was even so when that society responded critically or dismissively. How dynamic was the relationship between ethics and missionary awareness? This article charts a biblical-theological quest through the Epistle to the Hebrews, a New Testament letter addressed to Jewish-Christian readers who should refocus their lives in a time of crisis. The writer of this letter urges them to look in faith to Jesus Christ, the superior high priest in heaven, this being a hint for future readers who also desire to persevere in a time of crisis.http://www.unisa.ac.za/default.asp?Cmd=ViewContent&ContentID=27830hb201