Improved modelling of lifestyle changes in Integrated Assessment Models : Cross-disciplinary insights from methodologies and theories

Recent studies show that lifestyle changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. While some efforts have been made to incorporate lifestyle changes into model-based scenarios, the attempts are currently very stylised and included exogenously. This paper discusses current efforts to represent lifestyle change in models, and analyses potential insights from relevant scientific disciplines to improve the representation of lifestyle changes in models – including modelling specific behaviour changes, identifying cross-cutting lifestyle solutions, representing the intentions behind the changes and quantifying their impacts. As such, this research attempts to bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative theories and methodologies. Based on the results of this literature analysis, we recommend defining lifestyle changes more harmoniously, exploring an expanded range of approaches, domains and transformative solutions, adopting a whole-systems approach, and addressing the trade-offs between the use of exogenous inputs and endogenous modelling. © 2019 The AuthorsPeer reviewe

2°C through different lenses : Evaluating long-term energy system change for a 2°C-constrained world

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) agreed upon limiting global mean temperature increase to less than 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts towards limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C. Policymakers that face this climate objective are confronted with difficult questions about how this goal can be achieved. Several fields of research, methods and tools are available to help shape our understanding of the needed change to attain the above-mentioned climate objective, including the use of historical references to draw lessons from the past for the future, expert knowledge on current trends and future transition routes and model-based scenarios that allow to explore different future pathways under specific conditions and climate policies. Model-based scenarios, developed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), have proven to be helpful in informing policy makers about key elements of long-term systemic change in the past. However, as insights are generally based on simplified and idealised assumptions on future system change, these studies may be considered as being more of an exploratory rather than predictive nature. It is therefore relevant to assess the ability of IAMs to represent future system change and thereby their ability to inform policy makers on meeting a long-term climate objective. By placing IAM outcomes in the light of other fields of knowledge one can evaluate whether IAMs are able to complement or contrast the various perspectives on future system change. In this dissertation, three perspectives have been systematically compared to identify the commonalities and differences in prospected future change. First, various IAMs have been compared amongst each other to study the robust patterns in model-based scenario analyses looking into limiting global mean temperature increase to 2°C. Secondly, the projected future rates of change by IAMs have been compared to rates of change as observed in the past. Thirdly, the projected rates of change by IAMs have been compared to rates of change as estimated by experts in the field of various energy technologies. To move beyond the existing conceptualisation of systems change as devised by IAMs - which is often based on economics, engineering, and natural sciences - new approaches to broaden the scope of IAMs have been developed and researched. In a final study the national arrangements and policy-evaluation processes for long-term climate policy have been analysed. The dissertation concludes that a broader perspective on future system change allows a more critical appraisal of the considered future opportunities and challenges in a disciplinary field. Overall agreement between the various perspectives has been found for the 2°C development trajectory for wind power towards 2050, whereas differences in perspective have been revealed for other (energy) technologies, particularly nuclear power, bioelectricity and carbon capture and storage. However, in order to come to a more holistic view on future system change in line with the 2°C climate objective, further research may focus on broadening the scope of assessment. Considered avenues are the inclusion of a broader system view, greater engagement with other fields of research and the development of alternative transition pathways

Material Efficiency in Dutch Packaging Policy

Packaging materials are one of the largest contributors to municipal solid waste generation. In this paper, we evaluate the material impacts of packaging policy in The Netherlands, focusing on the role of material efficiency (or waste prevention). Since 1991, five different policies have been implemented to reduce the environmental impact of packaging. The analysis shows that Dutch packaging policies helped to reduce the total packaging volume until 1999. After 2000, packaging consumption increased more rapidly than the baseline, suggesting that policy measures were not effective. Generally, we see limited attention to material efficiency to reduce packaging material use. For this purpose, we tried to gain more insight in recent activities on material efficiency, by building a database of packaging prevention initiatives. We identified 131 alterations to packaging implemented in the period 2005–2010, of which weight reduction was the predominant approach. More appropriate packaging policy is needed to increase the effectiveness of policies, with special attention to material efficiency

The paradox of packaging optimization – a characterization of packaging source reduction in the Netherlands

The European Council Directive 94/62/EC for Packaging and Packaging Waste requires that Member States implement packaging waste prevention measures. However, consumption and subsequently packaging waste figures are still growing annually. It suggests that policies to accomplish packaging waste prevention do not suffice, especially since developments are less insightful as these are part of a self-declaring compliance system. This study is aimed at expanding the understanding of packaging source reduction. We collected and evaluated 131 available options implemented in the Netherlands in the period 2005–2010. Lightweighting has been identified as the most frequently applied packaging source reduction method, indicating that the packaging industry prioritizes low-effort and familiar concepts, despite the dichotomy in efficacy

A multi-model analysis of post-2020 mitigation efforts of five major economies. Special Issue on Implementing Climate Policies in the Major Economies: An Assessment of Durban Platform Architectures — Results from the LIMITS Project

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors