Debt Sustainability after the Pandemic: a Rift between Advanced and Developing Economies?

The aftermath of the Covid-19 health crisis poses major fiscal challenges to many countries, both advanced and developing. A key issue facing policymakers is the amount of available fiscal space given the recent surge in public debt. Exceptional shocks like the pandemic can push countries beyond their debt sustainability limit, inevitably constraining countries’ fiscal space. Against this backdrop this paper estimates the development of public debt limits and ensuing fiscal space for a panel of G20 economies - developed and developing - since the 1990s. This analysis suggests that advanced and developing economies face entirely different conditions for the conduct of independent fiscal policies to address major shocks, with the former generally much better placed

Comparison of the effects of salmeterol/fluticasone propionate with fluticasone propionate on airway physiology in adults with mild persistent asthma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study compared the effect of inhaled fluticasone propionate (FP) with the combination of salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (SFC) on lung function parameters in patients with mild asthma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adult patients with mild persistent asthma (≥ 80% predicted FEV₁) receiving 200–500 μg of BDP or equivalent were randomised to receive either FP 100 μg or SFC 50/100 μg twice daily from a Diskus^®inhaler for four weeks. The primary outcome was the change from baseline in airway resistance (sRaw) at 12 hrs post dose measured by whole body plethysmography. Impulse oscillometry and spirometry were also performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A comparison of the geometric mean sRaw at 12 hrs post dose in the SFC group to the FP group gave a ratio of 0.76 (0.66 – 0.89, p < 0.001) at week 2 and 0.81 (0.71 – 0.94, p = 0.006) at week 4. Similarly, significant results in favour of SFC for oscillometry measurements of resistance and reactance were observed. FEV₁was also significantly superior at week 2 in the SFC group (mean difference 0.16L, 95% CI; 0.03 – 0.28, p = 0.015), but not at week 4 (mean difference 0.17L, 95% CI -0.01 – 0.34, p = 0.060).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>SFC is superior to FP in reducing airway resistance in mild asthmatics with near normal FEV₁values. This study provides evidence that changes in pulmonary function in patients with mild asthma are detected more sensitively by plethysmography compared to spirometry</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>NCT00370591.</p

Preferences of patients, clinicians, and healthy controls for the management of a Bethesda III thyroid nodule

Background: Active surveillance is propagated as an alternative for hemithyroidectomy in the management of Bethesda III thyroid nodules. Methods: A cross-sectional survey questioned respondents on their willingness to accept risks related to active surveillance and hemithyroidectomy. Results: In case of active surveillance, respondents (129 patients, 46 clinicians, and 66 healthy controls) were willing to accept a risk of 10%–15% for thyroid cancer and 15% for needing more extensive surgery in the future. Respondents were willing to accept a risk of 22.5%–30% for hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy. Patients and controls were willing to accept a higher risk on permanent voice changes compared with clinicians (10% vs. 3%, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Real-life risks associated which active surveillance and hemithyroidectomy for Bethesda III nodules are equivalent or less than the risks people are willing to accept. Clinicians accepted less risk for permanent voice changes

Validity of the self-administered comorbidity questionnaire in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

Background: The International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement has selected the self-administered comorbidity questionnaire (SCQ) to adjust case-mix when comparing outcomes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treatment between healthcare providers. However, the SCQ has not been validated for use in IBD patients. Objectives: We assessed the validity of the SCQ for measuring comorbidities in IBD patients. Design: Cohort study. Methods: We assessed the criterion validity of the SCQ for IBD patients by comparing patient-reported and clinician-reported comorbidities (as noted in the electronic health record) of the 13 diseases of the SCQ using Cohen’s kappa. Construct validity was assessed using the Spearman correlation coefficient between the SCQ and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), clinician-reported SCQ, quality of life, IBD-related healthcare and productivity costs, prevalence of disability, and IBD disease activity. We assessed responsiveness by correlating changes in the SCQ with changes in healthcare costs, productivity costs, quality of life, and disease activity after 15 months. Results: We included 613 patients. At least fair agreement (κ &gt; 0.20) was found for most comorbidities, but the agreement was slight (κ &lt; 0.20) for stomach disease [κ = 0.19, 95% CI (−0.03; 0.41)], blood disease [κ = 0.02, 95% CI (−0.06; 0.11)], and back pain [κ = 0.18, 95% CI (0.11; 0.25)]. Correlations were found between the SCQ and the clinician-reported SCQ [ρ = 0.60, 95% CI (0.55; 0.66)], CCI [ρ = 0.39, 95% CI (0.31; 0.45)], the prevalence of disability [ρ = 0.23, 95% CI (0.15; 0.32)], and quality of life [ρ = −0.30, 95% CI (−0.37; −0.22)], but not between the SCQ and healthcare or productivity costs or disease activity (|ρ| ⩽ 0.2). A change in the SCQ after 15 months was not correlated with a change in any of the outcomes.Conclusion: The SCQ is a valid tool for measuring comorbidity in IBD patients, but face and content validity should be improved before being used to correct case-mix differences.</p

Splanchnic Artery Stenosis and Abdominal Complaints: Clinical History Is of Limited Value in Detection of Gastrointestinal Ischemia

BACKGROUND: Splanchnic artery stenosis is common and mostly asymptomatic and may lead to gastrointestinal ischemia (chronic splanchnic syndrome, CSS). This study was designed to assess risk factors for CSS in the medical history of patients with splanchnic artery stenosis and whether these risk factors can be used to identify patients with high and low risk of CSS. METHODS: All patients referred for suspected CSS underwent a standardized workup, including a medical history with questionnaire, duplex ultrasound, gastrointestinal tonometry, and angiography. Definitive diagnosis and treatment advice was made in a multidisciplinary team. Patients with confirmed CSS were compared with no-CSS patients. RESULTS: A total of 270 patients (102 M, 168 F; mean age, 53 years) with splanchnic artery stenosis were analyzed, of whom 109 (40%) had CSS and 161 no CSS. CSS-patients more often reported postprandial pain (87% vs. 72%, p = 0.007), weight loss (85% vs. 70%, p = 0.006), adapted eating pattern (90% vs. 79%, p = 0.005) and diarrhea (35% vs. 22%, p = 0.023). If none of these risk factors were present, the probability of CSS was 13%; if all were present, the probability was 60%. Adapted eating pattern (odds ratio (OR) 3.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-8.88) and diarrhea (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.31-5.3) were statistically significant in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with splanchnic artery stenosis, the clinical history is of limited value for detection of CSS. A diagnostic test to detect ischemia is indispensable for proper selection of patients with splanchnic artery stenosis who might benefit from treatment

Cardiovascular disease in a cohort exposed to the 1940-45 Channel Islands occupation

BACKGROUND To clarify the nature of the relationship between food deprivation/undernutrition during pre- and postnatal development and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life, this study examined the relationship between birth weight (as a marker of prenatal nutrition) and the incidence of hospital admissions for CVD from 1997–2005 amongst 873 Guernsey islanders (born in 1923–1937), 225 of whom had been exposed to food deprivation as children, adolescents or young adults (i.e. postnatal undernutrition) during the 1940–45 German occupation of the Channel Islands, and 648 of whom had left or been evacuated from the islands before the occupation began. METHODS Three sets of Cox regression models were used to investigate (A) the relationship between birth weight and CVD, (B) the relationship between postnatal exposure to the occupation and CVD and (C) any interaction between birth weight, postnatal exposure to the occupation and CVD. These models also tested for any interactions between birth weight and sex, and postnatal exposure to the occupation and parish of residence at birth (as a marker of parish residence during the occupation and related variation in the severity of food deprivation). RESULTS The first set of models (A) found no relationship between birth weight and CVD even after adjustment for potential confounders (hazard ratio (HR) per kg increase in birth weight: 1.12; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.70 – 1.78), and there was no significant interaction between birth weight and sex (p = 0.60). The second set of models (B) found a significant relationship between postnatal exposure to the occupation and CVD after adjustment for potential confounders (HR for exposed vs. unexposed group: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.54 – 4.13), as well as a significant interaction between postnatal exposure to the occupation and parish of residence at birth (p = 0.01), such that those born in urban parishes (where food deprivation was worst) had a greater HR for CVD than those born in rural parishes. The third model (C) found no interaction between birth weight and exposure to the occupation (p = 0.43). CONCLUSION These findings suggest that the levels of postnatal undernutrition experienced by children, adolescents and young adults exposed to food deprivation during the 1940–45 occupation of the Channel Islands were a more important determinant of CVD in later life than the levels of prenatal undernutrition experienced in utero prior to the occupatio