The interpretation of behavior-model correlations in unidentified cognitive models

The rise of computational modeling in the past decade has led to a substantial increase in the number of papers that report parameter estimates of computational cognitive models. A common application of computational cognitive models is to quantify individual differences in behavior by estimating how these are expressed in differences in parameters. For these inferences to hold, models need to be identified, meaning that one set of parameters is most likely, given the behavior under consideration. For many models, model identification can be achieved up to a scaling constraint, which means that under the assumption that one parameter has a specific value, all remaining parameters are identified. In the current note, we argue that this scaling constraint implies a strong assumption about the cognitive process that the model is intended to explain, and warn against an overinterpretation of the associative relations found in this way. We will illustrate these points using signal detection theory, reinforcement learning models, and the linear ballistic accumulator model, and provide suggestions for a clearer interpretation of modeling results

The Bayesian Mutation Sampler Explains Distributions of Causal Judgments

One consistent finding in the causal reasoning literature is that causal judgments are rather variable. In particular, distributions of probabilistic causal judgments tend not to be normal and are often not centered on the normative response. As an explanation for these response distributions, we propose that people engage in ‘mutation sampling’ when confronted with a causal query and integrate this information with prior information about that query. The Mutation Sampler model (Davis &amp; Rehder, 2020) posits that we approximate probabilities using a sampling process, explaining the average responses of participants on a wide variety of tasks. Careful analysis, however, shows that its predicted response distributions do not match empirical distributions. We develop the Bayesian Mutation Sampler (BMS) which extends the original model by incorporating the use of generic prior distributions. We fit the BMS to experimental data and find that, in addition to average responses, the BMS explains multiple distributional phenomena including the moderate conservatism of the bulk of responses, the lack of extreme responses, and spikes of responses at 50%.</p

Three boundary conditions for computing the fixed-point property in binary mixture data

The notion of “mixtures” has become pervasive in behavioral and cognitive sciences, due to the success of dual-process theories of cognition. However, providing support for such dual-process theories is not trivial, as it crucially requires properties in the data that are specific to mixture of cognitive processes. In theory, one such property could be the fixed-point property of binary mixture data, applied–for instance- to response times. In that case, the fixed-point property entails that response time distributions obtained in an experiment in which the mixture proportion is manipulated would have a common density point. In the current article, we discuss the application of the fixed-point property and identify three boundary conditions under which the fixed-point property will not be interpretable. In Boundary condition 1, a finding in support of the fixed-point will be mute because of a lack of difference between conditions. Boundary condition 2 refers to the case in which the extreme conditions are so different that a mixture may display bimodality. In this case, a mixture hypothesis is clearly supported, yet the fixed-point may not be found. In Boundary condition 3 the fixed-point may also not be present, yet a mixture might still exist but is occluded due to additional changes in behavior. Finding the fixed-property provides strong support for a dual-process account, yet the boundary conditions that we identify should be considered before making inferences about underlying psychological processes

How to assess the existence of competing strategies in cognitive tasks: a primer on the fixed-point property

When multiple strategies can be used to solve a type of problem, the observed response time distributions are often mixtures of multiple underlying base distributions each representing one of these strategies. For the case of two possible strategies, the observed response time distributions obey the fixed-point property. That is, there exists one reaction time that has the same probability of being observed irrespective of the actual mixture proportion of each strategy. In this paper we discuss how to compute this fixed-point, and how to statistically assess the probability that indeed the observed response times are generated by two competing strategies. Accompanying this paper is a free R package that can be used to compute and test the presence or absence of the fixed-point property in response time data, allowing for easy to use tests of strategic behavior