State estimation for temporal point processes

This paper is concerned with combined inference for point processes on the real line observed in a broken interval. For such processes, the classic history-based approach cannot be used. Instead, we adapt tools from sequential spatial point processes. For a range of models, the marginal and conditional distributions are derived. We discuss likelihood based inference as well as parameter estimation using the method of moments, conduct a simulation study for the important special case of renewal processes and analyse a data set collected by Diggle and Hawtin

Non-parametric indices of dependence between components for inhomogeneous multivariate random measures and marked sets

We propose new summary statistics to quantify the association between the components in coverage-reweighted moment stationary multivariate random sets and measures. They are defined in terms of the coverage-reweighted cumulant densities and extend classic functional statistics for stationary random closed sets. We study the relations between these statistics and evaluate them explicitly for a range of models. Unbiased estimators are given for all statistics and applied to simulated examples.Comment: Added examples in version

A spectral mean for point sampled closed curves

We propose a spectral mean for closed curves described by sample points on its boundary subject to mis-alignment and noise. First, we ignore mis-alignment and derive maximum likelihood estimators of the model and noise parameters in the Fourier domain. We estimate the unknown curve by back-transformation and derive the distribution of the integrated squared error. Then, we model mis-alignment by means of a shifted parametric diffeomorphism and minimise a suitable objective function simultaneously over the unknown curve and the mis-alignment parameters. Finally, the method is illustrated on simulated data as well as on photographs of Lake Tana taken by astronauts during a Shuttle mission

A J-function for inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes

We propose a new summary statistic for inhomogeneous intensity-reweighted moment stationary spatio-temporal point processes. The statistic is defined through the n-point correlation functions of the point process and it generalises the J-function when stationarity is assumed. We show that our statistic can be represented in terms of the generating functional and that it is related to the inhomogeneous K-function. We further discuss its explicit form under some specific model assumptions and derive a ratio-unbiased estimator. We finally illustrate the use of our statistic on simulated data

Summary statistics for inhomogeneous marked point processes

We propose new summary statistics for intensity-reweighted moment stationary marked point processes with particular emphasis on discrete marks. The new statistics are based on the n-point correlation functions and reduce to cross J- and D-functions when stationarity holds. We explore the relationships between the various functions and discuss their explicit forms under specific model assumptions. We derive ratio-unbiased minus sampling estimators for our statistics and illustrate their use on a data set of wildfires

A non-homogeneous Semi-Markov model for Interval Censoring

Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant. In this work, we introduce a model which allows for non-homogeneous behaviour in both cases. In particular, we outline a censoring mechanism based on semi-Markov processes in which interval generation is assumed to be time-dependent and we propose a Markov point process model for the underlying occurrence time distribution. We prove the existence of this process and derive the conditional distribution of the occurrence times given the intervals. We provide a framework within which the process can be accurately modelled, and subsequently compare our model to homogeneous approaches by way of a parametric example.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figure

Competing Claims in Public Space: The Construction of Frames in Different Relational Contexts

Contains fulltext : 151928.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

XGBoostPP: Tree-based Estimation of Point Process Intensity Functions

We propose a novel tree-based ensemble method, named XGBoostPP, to nonparametrically estimate the intensity of a point process as a function of covariates. It extends the use of gradient-boosted regression trees (Chen & Guestrin, 2016) to the point process literature via two carefully designed loss functions. The first loss is based on the Poisson likelihood, working for general point processes. The second loss is based on the weighted Poisson likelihood, where spatially dependent weights are introduced to further improve the estimation efficiency for clustered processes. An efficient greedy search algorithm is developed for model estimation, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies and two real data analyses. In particular, we report that XGBoostPP achieves superior performance to existing approaches when the dimension of the covariate space is high, revealing the advantages of tree-based ensemble methods in estimating complex intensity functions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure