African Regional Integration: Implications for Food Security

This report looks at the African regional trade, regional integration agreements (RIAs) and the implications for food security. An overview is presented on the present state of African regional integration and the determinants of regional trade in agriculture and food commodities. In particular the study focuses on eight target countries, related RIAs and a set of strategic food commodities. The evidence presented in this study shows that African countries have made progress in opening up agriculture and food trade with partner countries. With, the exception of Ghana, Tanzania and Mozambique, the effective applied tariff rates for regional trade partners are substantially lower than the (MFN) rates applied to world trade partners. Nonetheless, regional trade in agriculture and food only increased marginally between 1990 and 2009, and is relatively low in comparison with other developing regions. The weak state of soft and hard infrastructure, rather than high trade tariffs, seem to be the cause of thi

Simple bounds for queueing systems with breakdowns

Computationally attractive and intuitively obvious simple bounds are proposed for finite service systems which are subject to random breakdowns. The services are assumed to be exponential. The up and down periods are allowed to be generally distributed. The bounds are based on product-form modifications and depend only on means. A formal proof is presented. This proof is of interest in itself. Numerical support indicates a potential usefulness for quick engineering and performance evaluation purposes

Simple and insensitive bounds for a grading and an overflow model

Simple and intuitively obvious lower and upper bounds are suggested for a specific grading and an overflow model. The bounds are based on product-type modifications and are insensitive. Numerical support indicates a potential usefulness for quick engineering purposes

African Regional Integration: Implications for Food Security

This report looks at the African regional trade, regional integration agreements (RIAs) and the implications for food security. An overview is presented on the present state of African regional integration and the determinants of regional trade in agriculture and food commodities. In particular the study focuses on eight target countries, related RIAs and a set of strategic food commodities. The evidence presented in this study shows that African countries have made progress in opening up agriculture and food trade with partner countries. With, the exception of Ghana, Tanzania and Mozambique, the effective applied tariff rates for regional trade partners are substantially lower than the (MFN) rates applied to world trade partners. Nonetheless, regional trade in agriculture and food only increased marginally between 1990 and 2009, and is relatively low in comparison with other developing regions. The weak state of soft and hard infrastructure, rather than high trade tariffs, seem to be the cause of this.Regional integration agreements, Africa, Food security., Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade,

On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model

Econometric issues that are considered fundamental in the development of Bayesian structuralinference within a Simultaneous Equation Model are surveyed. The difficulty of specifying prior information which is of interest to economists and which yields tractable posterior and predictive distributions has started this line of research. A major issue is the nonstandard shape of the likelihood due to reduced rank restrictions. It implies that existence of structural posterior moments under vague prior information is a nontrivial issue. The problem is illustrated through simple examples using artificially generated data in a so-called limited information framework where the connection with the problem of weak instruments in classical econometrics is also described. A positive development is Bayesian inference of implied characteristics, in particular, dynamic features of a Simultaneous Equation Model. The potential of Bayesian structural inference, using a predictive approach for prior specification and using Monte Carlo simulation techniques for computational purposes, is illustrated by means of a prior and posterior analysis of the US business cycle in the period of the depression. A structural prior is elicited through investigation of the implied predictive features.

Modeling regional house prices

We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class membership is fully data-driven and based on (i) average growth rates of house prices, (ii) the propagation of shocks to house prices across regions, also known as the ripple effect, and (iii) the relationship of house prices with economic growth and other variables. Applying the model to quarterly data for the Netherlands, we find convincing evidence for the existence of two distinct clusters of regions, with pronounced differences in house price dynamics.cointegration;ripple effect;cross-section dependence