Victoria in future 2016: population and household projections to 2051

Victoria in Future 2016 (VIF2016) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers across government and in other areas. The results are driven by assumptions concerning demographic and land use trends. Projections are based on the latest (30 June 2015) population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and incorporate the results of the 2011 Census. For Victoria and major regions, the projections cover the period from 2011 to 2051. For Local Government Areas (LGA), and Victoria in Future Small Areas (VIFSA), the projections extend to 2031

Victoria in future 2014

Summary Victoria in Future 2014 (VIF2014) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers across government and in other areas. The results are driven by assumptions concerning demographic and land use trends. Projections are based on the latest (30 June 2013) population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and incorporate the results of the 2011 Census. For Victoria and major regions, the projections cover the period from 2011 to 2051. For Local Government Areas (LGA), the projections extend to 2031

Disparities in cataract surgery between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in New South Wales, Australia

<b>Background:</b> To investigate variation in rates of cataract surgery in New South Wales (NSW), Australia by area of residence for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal adults.<p></p> <b>Design:</b> Observational data linkage study of hospital admissions.<p></p> <b>Participants:</b> 289 646 NSW residents aged 30 years and over admitted to NSW hospitals for 444 551 cataract surgery procedures between 2001 and 2008.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> Analysis of linked routinely collected hospital data using direct standardisation and multilevel negative binomial regression models accounting for clustering of individuals within Statistical Local Areas (SLAs).<p></p> <b>Main outcome measures:</b> Age-standardised cataract surgery rates and adjusted rate ratios (ARRs).<p></p> <b>Results:</b> Aboriginal people had lower rates of cataract procedures than non-Aboriginal people of the same age and sex, living in the same SLA (ARR 0.71, 95% CI 0.68-0.75). There was significant variation in cataract surgery rates across SLAs for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people, with the disparity higher in major cities and less disadvantaged areas. Rates of surgery were lower for Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people in most SLAs, but in a few, the rates were similar or higher for Aboriginal people.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> Aboriginal people in NSW received less cataract surgery than non-Aboriginal people, despite evidence of higher cataract rates. This disparity was greatest in urban and wealthier areas. Higher rates of surgery for Aboriginal people observed in some specific locations are likely to reflect the availability of public ophthalmology services, targeted services for Aboriginal people and higher demand for surgery in these populations.<p></p&gt

National trends in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking and quitting, 1994-2008

Objective: To describe the trends in the prevalence of smoking, quitting and initiation among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men and women aged 18 years and over. Methods: Analysis of responses to smoking questions in national Indigenous surveys in 1994, 2002, 2004 and 2008. Results: Male Indigenous smoking prevalence fell significantly from 58.5% in 1994 to 52.6% in 2008, an absolute decrease of 0.4 (CI 0.1-0.7)% per year, with the same decline in remote and non- remote areas. Female smoking fell from 51.0% to 47.4%, with markedly different changes in remote and non-remote areas. In non-remote areas, there was an absolute decrease in female smoking of 0.5 (CI 0.2-0.9)% per year, but in remote areas, female smoking increased by 0.4 (CI 0.0-0.8)% per year. From 2002 to 2008, the percentage of ever-smokers who had quit (quit ratio) increased absolutely by 1% per year in both men and women, remote and non-remote areas. Results about trends in initiation were inconclusive. Conclusions and Implications: Health Minister Roxon has committed to halving the Indigenous smoking prevalence by 2018, and has dramatically increased Indigenous-specific funding and activity in tobacco control. The reported historical trends in this paper are encouraging as they occurred at a time when there was little such tobacco control activity focused on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. However, to meet the Minister’s goal, Indigenous smoking prevalence will need to fall more than six times as quickly as occurred from 1994 to 2008

'Dog Days' Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

Policy Forum: The Murray Financial System Enquir

Gaming machine density is correlated with rates of help-seeking for problem gambling: a local area analysis in Victoria, Australia

Local environment plays an important role in understanding gambling as a public health issue. This study uses help-seeking as an outcome measure for a local area analysis of problem gambling in Victoria, Australia. We used a cross-sectional ecological design to investigate the extent to which gaming industry and demographic, economic, and social factors are associated with rates of telephone and face-to-face counselling for problem gambling at the local government area level. Electronic gaming machine density was independently correlated with both types of help-seeking, with a range of local factors controlled. This study supports previous research that has consistently found an association between gaming machine density and problem gambling, using gaming machine expenditure as a proxy measure of harm. We build on previous work by confirming that this relationship exists when gambling harm is measured through two types of help-seeking

Cigarette availability and price in low and high socioeconomic areas

Objective: To determine whether tobacco retailer density and cigarette prices differ between low and high socioeconomic status suburbs in South-East Queensland. Methods: A survey of retail outlets selling cigarettes was conducted in selected suburbs over a two-day period. The suburbs were identified by geographical cluster sampling based on their Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage score and size of retail complex within the suburb. All retail outlets within the suburb were visited and the retail prices for the highest ranking Australian brands were recorded at each outlet. Results: A significant relationship was found between Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage score (in deciles) and the number of tobacco retail outlets (r=0.93, p=0.003), with the most disadvantaged suburbs having a greater number of tobacco retailers. Results also demonstrate that cigarettes were sold in a broader range of outlets in suburbs of low SES. The average price of the packs studied was significantly lower in the most disadvantaged suburbs compared to the most advantaged. While cigarettes were still generally cheaper in the most disadvantaged suburbs, the difference was no longer statistically significant when the average price of cigarette packs was compared according to outlet type (supermarket, newsagent, etc). Conclusions: In South-East Queensland, cigarettes are more widely available in the most disadvantaged suburbs and at lower prices than in the most advantaged suburbs

Second-Generation Greek-Australian and Italian-Australian Students at Victoria University

This paper examines the academic performance of the second-generation Australians at Victoria University in 2007. The study utilises Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 estimates of socio-economic status to investigate the roles of socio-economic background, and cultural and linguistic diversity (CALD). Attention is given to students of Greek and Italian ancestry. The study also accounts for selection bias, elite high school participation, gender, age, employment status, and study intensity. The evidence suggests that academic outcomes vary by sector, and languages-other-than- English (LOTE) are a key driver of the disadvantage observed in second-generation Australian students

Access to general practitioner services amongst underserved Australians: a microsimulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One group often identified as having low socioeconomic status, those living in remote or rural areas, are often recognised as bearing an unequal burden of illness in society. This paper aims to examine equity of utilisation of general practitioner services in Australia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the 2005 National Health Survey undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, a microsimulation model was developed to determine the distribution of GP services that would occur if all Australians had equal utilisation of health services relative to need.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was estimated that those who are unemployed would experience a 19% increase in GP services. Persons residing in regional areas would receive about 5.7 million additional GP visits per year if they had the same access to care as Australians residing in major cities. This would be a 18% increase. There would be a 20% increase for inner regional residents and a 14% increase for residents of more remote regional areas. Overall there would be a 5% increase in GP visits nationally if those in regional areas had the same access to care as those in major cities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Parity is an insufficient goal and disadvantaged persons and underserved areas require greater access to health services than the well served metropolitan areas due to their greater poverty and poorer health status. Currently underserved Australians suffer a double disadvantage: poorer health and poorer access to health services.</p

Analysis of national data shows mixed evidence of hardening among Australian smokers

Objective : According to the hardening hypothesis, the proportion of smokers that are low-probability quitters will increase as societal disapproval of smoking increases. This paper examines whether there has been increased hardening in Australian smokers over the past decade as reflected in an increased prevalence of psychological distress and social disadvantage among current smokers. Methods: The relationship between psychological distress, living in a disadvantaged area and level of education was determined using logistic regression at two time points 7 to 10 years apart in three cross-sectional household survey series: National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS), National Health Survey (NHS) and National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being (NSMHW). Results: The relationships between smoking and living in the most disadvantaged areas and having completed less than 12 years of schooling strengthened between 2001 and 2010 in the NDSHS, but there were no significant changes between survey years in the NHS and NSMHW. There was no significant change in the relationship between smoking and psychological distress between survey years in any of the survey series. Conclusion: Social disadvantage may be increasing among current smokers, but the results were inconsistent between survey series, presenting weak evidence that the population of Australian smokers hardened as smoking prevalence declined by approximately 4% over the last decade. Implications: A greater focus on intensive individual-level tobacco cessation interventions does not appear warranted at this time