On the psychological determinants of fertility: a panorama of concepts and approaches, and evidence from eastern Germany

In this paper we study the transition to parenthood, analyzing data from three waves of a psychological longitudinal survey from Rostock, eastern Germany. We apply hazard regressions in order to predict the timing of first births of 117 men and 124 women born in 1970 and 1971. Subjects, who were in their 20s during the 1990s, made their family decisions during the most turbulent times of societal transformation in eastern Germany following unification. We hypothesized a crucial relevance of personality traits, coping-styles, and other psychological variables for the prediction of fertility in this context. Results for men show that dispositional self-actualization and internal control-styles as well as a tendency to social withdrawal decrease the probability of fatherhood. For women, dispositional emotional stability and mental health decrease the probability of motherhood, whereas a tendency toward rationalization increases it. We discuss findings in light of the gender-specific life-span development of people’s personality and control behavior.Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility determinants, first birth, life span, psychology

Measurement and relevance of the shadow economy in the European Union

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Price indices and unit value indices in German foreign trade statistics

There is presently an international discussion among statistical institutes, reserve banks etc. about the feasibility of replacing true price indices of exports and imports by unit value indices. For the very few countries, such as Germany, providing both indices on a monthly basis this would mean to give up a (costly) compilation of P-indices. The paper shows that this would be unwise. It aims at exploring the still not well understood methodological differences of both types of indices, and it is also reporting some empirical results of a research project in cooperation with the German Bundesbank.unit value indices; foreign trade statistics

The Interpretation of Unit Value Indices - Unit Value Indices as Proxies for Price Indices

The unit value index (UVI) as compiled in Germany for exports and imports is compared with two other indices, viz. an index of Drobisch which unfortunately is likewise known as "unit value index" and the "normal" Laspeyres price index (PI) of exports and imports. The UVI may be viewed as a Paasche index compiled in two stages where unit values instead of prices are used in the low level aggregation stage. Unit values are average prices referring to an ag-gregate of (more or less homogeneous) commodities. The focus of the paper is on the decom-position of the discrepancy between UVIs and PIs (the "unit value bias") into a (well known) Laspeyres (or substitution) effect or "L-effect" and a structural component or "S-effect" due to substituting unit values for prices. It is shown that amount and sign of S depends on the corre-lation between the change of quantities of those goods that are included in the aggregate and their respective base period prices. By contrast to L the correlation between quantity and price movement is not relevant for S. This paper is a revised version of my contribution to the 11th Ottawa Group Meeting in Neuchatel (Switzerland) 27th to 29th May 2009 http://www.ottawagroup2009.ch/Price index, unit value index, unit values, axioms, foreign trade statistics, Bortkiewicz, Drobisch.

Secondary wind dispersal enhances long-distance dispersal of an invasive species in urban road corridors

Roads contribute to habitat fragmentation and function as dispersal barriers for many organisms. At the same time many nonnative plant species are associated with road systems, a relationship that has been explained by the availability of disturbed habitats along roadsides and traffic-mediated dispersal of species. By studying secondary wind dispersal (SWD) over paved ground in an urban road corridor, we add the perspective of corridor-specific, but traffic-independent dispersal processes to the complex dispersal systems along roads. We analyzed (1) the seed shadow of an invasive tree Ailanthus altissima along a sidewalk subsequent to a strong wind and (2) the movements of painted samaras of this species released at ground level at the same site to identify the functioning of SWD. For the first experiment, we searched for samaras in the vicinity of an isolated tree three days after a strong wind. For the second experiment, we tracked the movement of the released samaras repeatedly over a period of 9–11 days, approximated probability-distance functions to the frequency distribution of samaras along the transect for different times after release, and related nearby measured wind data to changes in dispersal kernels. Single samaras from an isolated tree formed a seed shadow that extended for a distance of up to 456 m, and fragments of fruit clusters traveled up to 240 m. Forty-two percent of the sampled samaras were moved >100 m. The second experiment revealed that painted samaras released on the ground were moved up to 150 m over the pavement. Dispersal distances increased with time after seed release. A wider distribution of diaspores over the transect was significantly related to higher wind sums. Habitat shifts to safe sites for germination occurred during SWD, and different types of pavement influenced these processes. Smooth-surfaced pavement enhanced SWD, while cobbles with irregular surfaces slowed down or terminated SWD. During the observation period, 17% of released samaras accumulated in patches with a planted tree. Some were recaptured within the median strip and thus must have been lifted and moved over four lanes of heavy traffic. Our results suggest that impervious surfaces within road corridors can function as powerful avenues of wind-mediated long-distance dispersal and may counteract fragmentation of urban habitats. This also offers a functional explanation for the invasion success of Ailanthus at isolated urban sites

Where qualitative research meets demography: interdisciplinary explorations of conceptions on fatherhood in an extremely low fertility context

Recent demands to include psychological theories of decision-making and intention-formation in research on family formation coincide with calls for improving research on male fertility and fatherhood. In this paper, we address these notions and present findings from in-depth interviews with 30-year-old childless men from Eastern Germany on their desire for children. Our research is embedded in the societal situation of contemporary Eastern Germany, where birth rates have faced a historical low - the lowest in more than 10 years. We analyze fourteen interviews, using an analytical paradigm, which we derive from the contemporary social cognitive theory of intention-formation. The focus lies on the examination of male attitudes, values, motives, interests, goals, action beliefs, and self-concepts, and their connection to men´s intentions for parenthood.In conclusion, we compare our results with explanations that the Theory of Symbolic Self-Completion and the Theory of Reasoned Action give. We argue for the need to bring together psychological and sociological theorizing in this field.Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility decline, men, social psychology

Becoming a parent in East Germany during the 1990s. The impact of personal considerations on the timing of entry to parenthood

This paper deals with psychological determinants of fertility differentials in East Germany in the 1990s. We test the explanatory and statistical power of psychological covariates in an event-history model of first-birth intensities together with other covariates. We show that different psychological covariates (wishes and fears, coping-styles, etc.) are important determinants of the transition to parenthood. A crucial finding is the existence of strong sex differentials in such impacts.Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility determinants, sex differentials, social psychology

Endangered Plants in Novel Urban Ecosystems Are Filtered by Strategy Type and Dispersal Syndrome, Not by Spatial Dependence on Natural Remnants

Understanding the contribution of cities to nature conservation is gaining increasing importance with a globally accelerating urbanization and requires insights into the mechanisms that underlie urban distribution patterns. While a considerable number of endangered plant species have been reported for cities, the spatial dependence of populations of these species on natural remnants versus anthropogenic ecosystems is critically understudied due to deficiencies in population distribution data. To which extent endangered species in anthropogenic ecosystems spatially rely on natural remnants is thus an open question. We used a unique dataset of 1,742 precisely mapped populations of 213 endangered plant species in the city of Berlin and related these point data to habitat patches that had been assigned to natural remnants, hybrid ecosystems and novel ecosystems according to the novel ecosystem approach. By applying point pattern analyses (Ripley’s K function, cross K function, cross pair correlation function) we unraveled the spatial dependence of the populations toward the different ecosystem types. Moreover, we tested how plant traits related to plant strategy and dispersal filter for species occurrence across ecosystems. Differentiating populations on anthropogenic sites revealed that populations in hybrid ecosystems spatially depended on natural remnants, but populations in novel ecosystems (i.e. more than a third of all populations) surprisingly didn’t. A conditional inference tree showed that endangered plant species in novel ecosystems are filtered for ruderal strategy type and wind dispersal syndrome, while competitive and stress-tolerant species were mainly confined to natural remnants. Our results highlight the importance of conserving natural remnants as habitats and seed sources of endangered plants. Yet novel urban ecosystems can support many populations of endangered plant species beyond the adjacency to natural remnants, with hybrid ecosystems likely acting as stepping stones. This indicates a specific contribution of urban ecosystems to biodiversity conservation. Since different filters modulate the species pools of different ecosystem types, novel urban ecosystems are not supposed to substitute fully the habitat functions of natural remnants. Our study thus highlights promising opportunities for involving the total range of urban ecosystem types into urban conservation approaches.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität BerlinBMBF, 01LC1501, BIBS-Verbund: Bridging in Biodiversity Science (BIBS

Problems of operationalizing the concept of a cost-of-living index

The aim of our paper is to discuss the problems of operationalizing the concept of a .cost-of-living-index. (COLI). For this purpose we are first undertaking a theoretical analysis of Diewert’s theory of superlative index numbers as one possible approach to approximate a COLI. We show that Diewert.s superlative index approach is arguable in many points and that the approach requires restrictive assumptions which are not likely to be met in observed households behaviour. To get a better idea about the deviation of observed households behaviour from the neoclassical assumptions about utility maximizing behaviour, we are estimating an Almost Ideal Demand System and a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System with cross section micro data from the German income and expenditure survey. Using the results of the demand system estimations we calculate COLIs and compare them with superlative index numbers and the Laspeyres price index.cost-of-living index; superlative index numbers; Diewert; demand systems

The political role of official statistics in the former GDR (East Germany)

Der Verfasser legt Ergebnisse einer im Auftrag des Deutschen Bundestags erstellten Studie vor, die auf bislang unbekanntem Archivmaterial beruht. Die Studie zeigt, dass die Zentralverwaltung für Statistik völlig unter dem Befehl der SED stand und so in einem bislang kaum vorstellbaren Ausmaß zum Instrument der Propaganda werden konnte. Sogar an internationale Organisationen weitergeleitete Daten zum Handel der DDR mit dem kapitalistischen Ausland wurden von der politische Führung 'korrigiert' und sind daher nicht verlässlich. (ICEÜbers)'This is a report of the results of the author's more detailed study for the German Parliament, in which unknown documents of only recently opened archives where presented. They show that the CSO was fully under the command of the party and thus misused as an instrument of propaganda to an extend, that was hitherto hardly imaginable. It could be shown, that even data on the GDR foreign trade with capitalist countries, reported to international organisations were deliberately 'corrected' by the political leaders and therfore not trustworthy.' (author's abstract