The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations

Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 104 at more than 50-87% of the tide gauges

The feasibility of using smartphone apps as treatment components for depressed suicidal outpatients

Mental health smartphone apps could increase the safety and self-management of patients at risk of suicide, but it is still unclear whether it is feasible to integrate such apps into routine mental healthcare. This study reports on the feasibility of using a safety planning app (BackUp) and a self-monitoring app (mEMA) as components of the routine treatment of depressed outpatients with suicidal ideation. Clinicians were trained in working with both of the apps, and they invited their eligible patients with suicidal ideation for study participation. Patients used the apps for 3 months and discussed these with their clinician during treatment. Patients completed assessments at baseline (T0), 4 weeks (T1) and post-test (T2, 12 weeks after baseline). Both patients and clinicians also participated in telephone interviews. Feasibility was assessed in terms of usability (score > 70 on System Usability Scale, SUS), acceptability (score > 20 on Client Satisfaction Questionnaire-8, CSQ-8), and uptake (sufficient rates of component completion and app usage in treatment). The sample included 17 adult outpatients (52.9% male, age range 20–50 years) diagnosed with a depressive disorder and suicidal ideation at baseline. BackUp was rated by patients at above the cut-off scores for usability (SUS mean score at T1 75.63 and at T2 77.71) and acceptability (CSQ-8 mean score at T1 23.42 and at T2 23.50). mEMA was similarly rated (SUS mean score at T1 75.83 and at T2 76.25; CSQ-8 mean score at T1 23.92 and at T2 22.75). Telephone interviews with patients and clinicians confirmed the usability and acceptability. The uptake criteria were not met. Our findings suggest that mobile safety planning and mobile self-monitoring can be considered acceptable and usable as treatment components for depressed suicidal outpatients, but the integration of apps into routine treatment needs to be further explored

Forskolin-induced Organoid Swelling is Associated with Long-term CF Disease Progression

RATIONALE: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a monogenic life-shortening disease associated with highly variable individual disease progression which is difficult to predict. Here we assessed the association of forskolin-induced swelling (FIS) of patient-derived organoids (PDO) with long-term CF disease progression in multiple organs and compared FIS with the golden standard biomarker sweat chloride concentration (SCC). METHODS: We retrieved 9-year longitudinal clinical data from the Dutch CF Registry of 173 people with mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. Individual CFTR function was defined by FIS, measured as the relative size increase of intestinal organoids after stimulation with 0.8 µM forskolin, quantified as area under the curve (AUC). We used linear mixed effect models and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the association of FIS with long-term FEV1pp decline and development of pancreatic insufficiency, CF-related liver disease and diabetes. Within these models, FIS was compared with SCC. RESULTS: FIS was strongly associated with longitudinal changes of lung function, with an estimated difference in annual FEV1pp decline of 0.32% (95%CI: 0.11%-0.54%; p=0.004) per 1000-points change in AUC. Moreover, increasing FIS levels were associated with lower odds of developing pancreatic insufficiency (adjusted OR: 0.18, 95%CI: 0.07-0.46, p<0.001), CF-related liver disease (adjusted OR: 0.18, 95%CI: 0.06-0.54, p=0.002) and diabetes (adjusted OR: 0.34, 95%CI: 0.12-0.97, p=0.044). These associations were absent for SCC. CONCLUSION: This study exemplifies the prognostic value of a PDO-based biomarker within a clinical setting, which is especially important for people carrying rare CFTR mutations with unclear clinical consequences

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18gm higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32gm. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8gm. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18gm higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32gm. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8gm. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections

The feasibility of using smartphone apps as treatment components for depressed suicidal outpatients

Mental health smartphone apps could increase the safety and self-management of patients at risk of suicide, but it is still unclear whether it is feasible to integrate such apps into routine mental healthcare. This study reports on the feasibility of using a safety planning app (BackUp) and a self-monitoring app (mEMA) as components of the routine treatment of depressed outpatients with suicidal ideation. Clinicians were trained in working with both of the apps, and they invited their eligible patients with suicidal ideation for study participation. Patients used the apps for 3 months and discussed these with their clinician during treatment. Patients completed assessments at baseline (T0), 4 weeks (T1) and post-test (T2, 12 weeks after baseline). Both patients and clinicians also participated in telephone interviews. Feasibility was assessed in terms of usability (score > 70 on System Usability Scale, SUS), acceptability (score > 20 on Client Satisfaction Questionnaire-8, CSQ-8), and uptake (sufficient rates of component completion and app usage in treatment). The sample included 17 adult outpatients (52.9% male, age range 20–50 years) diagnosed with a depressive disorder and suicidal ideation at baseline. BackUp was rated by patients at above the cut-off scores for usability (SUS mean score at T1 75.63 and at T2 77.71) and acceptability (CSQ-8 mean score at T1 23.42 and at T2 23.50). mEMA was similarly rated (SUS mean score at T1 75.83 and at T2 76.25; CSQ-8 mean score at T1 23.92 and at T2 22.75). Telephone interviews with patients and clinicians confirmed the usability and acceptability. The uptake criteria were not met. Our findings suggest that mobile safety planning and mobile self-monitoring can be considered acceptable and usable as treatment components for depressed suicidal outpatients, but the integration of apps into routine treatment needs to be further explored

Forskolin-induced organoid swelling is associated with long-term cystic fibrosis disease progression

Rationale Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a monogenic life-shortening disease associated with highly variable individual disease progression which is difficult to predict. Here we assessed the association of forskolin-induced swelling (FIS) of patient-derived organoids with long-term CF disease progression in multiple organs and compared FIS with the golden standard biomarker sweat chloride concentration (SCC). Methods We retrieved 9-year longitudinal clinical data from the Dutch CF Registry of 173 people with mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. Individual CFTR function was defined by FIS, measured as the relative size increase of intestinal organoids after stimulation with 0.8 µM forskolin, quantified as area under the curve (AUC). We used linear mixed-effect models and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the association of FIS with long-term forced expiratory volume in 1 s % predicted (FEV 1pp) decline and development of pancreatic insufficiency, CF-related liver disease and diabetes. Within these models, FIS was compared with SCC. Results FIS was strongly associated with longitudinal changes of lung function, with an estimated difference in annual FEV 1pp decline of 0.32% (95% CI 0.11–0.54%; p=0.004) per 1000-point change in AUC. Moreover, increasing FIS levels were associated with lower odds of developing pancreatic insufficiency (adjusted OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.07–0.46; p<0.001), CF-related liver disease (adjusted OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06–0.54; p=0.002) and diabetes (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12–0.97; p=0.044). These associations were absent for SCC. Conclusion This study exemplifies the prognostic value of a patient-derived organoid-based biomarker within a clinical setting, which is especially important for people carrying rare CFTR mutations with unclear clinical consequences