Can predicting COVID-19 mortality in a European cohort using only demographic and comorbidity data surpass age-based prediction: An externally validated study.

peer reviewedOBJECTIVE: To establish whether one can build a mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients based solely on demographics and comorbidity data that outperforms age alone. Such a model could be a precursor to implementing smart lockdowns and vaccine distribution strategies. METHODS: The training cohort comprised 2337 COVID-19 inpatients from nine hospitals in The Netherlands. The clinical outcome was death within 21 days of being discharged. The features were derived from electronic health records collected during admission. Three feature selection methods were used: LASSO, univariate using a novel metric, and pairwise (age being half of each pair). 478 patients from Belgium were used to test the model. All modeling attempts were compared against an age-only model. RESULTS: In the training cohort, the mortality group's median age was 77 years (interquartile range = 70-83), higher than the non-mortality group (median = 65, IQR = 55-75). The incidence of former/active smokers, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, dementia, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiac disease, chronic neurological disease, and chronic kidney disease was higher in the mortality group. All stated differences were statistically significant after Bonferroni correction. LASSO selected eight features, novel univariate chose five, and pairwise chose none. No model was able to surpass an age-only model in the external validation set, where age had an AUC of 0.85 and a balanced accuracy of 0.77. CONCLUSION: When applied to an external validation set, we found that an age-only mortality model outperformed all modeling attempts (curated on www.covid19risk.ai) using three feature selection methods on 22 demographic and comorbid features

Differential Gene Expression Changes in Children with Severe Dengue Virus Infections

Dengue virus infection is an impressively emerging disease that can be fatal in severe cases. It is not precisely clear why some patients progress to severe disease whereas most patients only suffer from a mild infection. In severe disease, a “cytokine storm” is induced, which indicates the release of a great number of inflammatory mediators (“cytokines”). Evidence suggested that a balance could be involved between protective and pathologic cytokine release patterns. We studied this concept in a cohort of Indonesian children with severe dengue disease using a gene expression profiling method

Dobutamine does not influence inflammatory pathways during human endotoxemia

OBJECTIVE: Catecholamines have anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant properties. Dobutamine is a synthetic catecholamine frequently used in patients with septic myocardial dysfunction. The objective was to determine whether a continuous infusion of dobutamine exerts immunomodulatory effects in healthy volunteers challenged with endotoxin. DESIGN: Prospective, open-label study. SETTING: Clinical research unit of a university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Sixteen male healthy volunteers. INTERVENTIONS: Volunteers received a constant infusion with dobutamine (10 microg.kg.min, n = 8) or physiologic saline (n = 8). All participants were challenged with a bolus injection of endotoxin prepared from Escherichia coli (4 ng/kg). Dobutamine infusion was commenced 1 hr before endotoxin challenge and was continued until 3 hrs thereafter. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Dobutamine infusion was associated with an increase in mean arterial blood pressure (peak 122 +/- 5 mm Hg) and heart rate (peak 84 +/- 4 beats/min, both p < .05 vs. saline). Endotoxin injection induced the systemic release of cytokines (tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins-6, -8, and -10) and secretory phospholipase A2, endothelial cell activation (increase in the plasma levels of soluble E-selectin and von Willebrand factor), activation of coagulation (increased plasma levels of soluble tissue factor, F1 + 2 prothrombin fragment, and thrombin-antithrombin complexes), and activation with subsequent inhibition of fibrinolysis (increased plasma concentrations of tissue-type plasminogen activator, plasminogen activator inhibitor type I, and plasmin-alpha2-antiplasmin complexes). None of these responses were influenced by dobutamine. CONCLUSIONS: Dobutamine, infused in a clinically relevant dose, does not influence inflammatory and coagulant pathways during human endotoxemi

Streptococcal lung abscesses from a dental focus following tocilizumab: a case report

Patients suffering from dental infections and concurrently using immunosuppressive medication are at increased risk of developing systemic streptococcal infections. Tocilizumab is a novel therapeutic agent targeting interleukin-6. We describe a case of streptococcal lung abscesses from a dental focus after use of tocilizumab for treatment of Takayasu arteriti

Chlamydia pneumoniae infections in mouse models: relevance for atherosclerosis research

Mouse models have been frequently used in the study of Chlamydia pneumoniae (also known as Chlamydophila pneumoniae) infections. This gram-negative obligate intracellular bacterium causes respiratory infections, followed by dissemination of the bacterium to various organs throughout the body, including cardiovascular tissues, supporting the current hypothesis of a relationship between C pneunioniae and atherosclerosis. Recently, clinical trials evaluated the effect of antichlamydial antibiotics on secondary cardiovascular events. Although small studies showed some effect, the large WIZARD study did not confirm these results, and the role of antichlamydial antibiotics in prevention of secondary events was questioned. To address these issues, data obtained from mouse models were systematically reviewed here. C. pneunioniae infections showed atherogenic properties in mice that were reproducible and confirmed by different research groups. However, antibiotic therapy was of limited value in these mouse models. Antibiotic therapy effectively cleared the acute infection, but did not influence the atherogenic properties of C pneumoniae unless the therapy was started early during the acute infection. The results summarized here may help to better understand the results of the clinical antibiotic trials. (C) 2004 European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserve

Differential dose-dependent effects of prednisolone on shedding of endothelial adhesion molecules during human endotoxemia

Low dose prednisolone was shown to be beneficial in the treatment of the Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and septic shock. One corticosteroid-induced effect, postulated to mediate corticosteroid-induced anti-inflammatory effects, is decreased expression of adhesion molecules on endothelial cells, thereby preventing leukocyte recruitment at inflammatory sites. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of increasing doses of prednisolone on the release of soluble adhesion molecules in healthy volunteers challenged with endotoxin. Therefore, 32 healthy, male volunteers received prednisolone orally at doses of 0mg, 3mg, 10mg or 30mg at 2h before injection of endotoxin prepared from Escherichia coli (4ng/kg) and levels of soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin), soluble VCAM-1 (sVCAM-1) and soluble ICAM-1 (sICAM-1) were measured. Levels of all markers were increased after induction of endotoxemia. Levels of sE-selectin were inhibited by a dose of 3mg prednisolone and levels of sVCAM-1 were decreased after a dose of 10mg. Maximal inhibition of both sE-selectin and sVCAM-1 levels was achieved by the highest dose of prednisolone 30mg. Remarkably, prednisolone 3mg potentiated endotoxin-induced sVCAM-1 release. Levels of sICAM-1 were not affected by prednisolone. Together, the data suggest that prednisolone differentially and dose-dependently influences the release of soluble endothelial adhesion molecules during human endotoxemi