Household income as a determinant of child labor and school enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a social security reform

This paper studies the effects of household income on labor participation and school enrollment of children aged 10 to 14 in Brazil using a social security reform as a source of exogenous variation in household income. We find that increased benefits are associated with increases in school enrollment for girls, as well as a smaller reduction in their labor participation, but find no effects for boys. We also uncover evidence that the gender of the benefit receiver matters for girls’ labor variables: only benefits received by females reduce girls’ work.social security reform, child labor, family, school enrollment, old-age benefits, Brazil

Immigration and the origins of regional inequality: Government-sponsored European migration to Southern Brazil before World War I

This paper studies the long-term consequences of the government-sponsored programs of European immigration to Southern Brazil before the Great War. We find that the municipalities closer to the original sites of nineteenth century government sponsored settlements (colônias) have higher per capita income, less poverty and dependence on Bolsa Família cash transfers, better health and education outcomes; and for the areas close to German colonies, also less inequality of income and educational outcomes than otherwise. Since that is a reduced form relationship, we then attempt to identify the relative importance of more egalitarian landholdings and higher initial human capital in determining those outcomes. Our findings are suggestive that more egalitarian land distribution played a more important role than higher initial human capital in achieving the good outcomes associated with closeness to a colônia.Brazil; Migration; Rio Grande do Sul; German migration; Italian migration; New World; Land distribution; Human capital; Economic history of Latin America

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible pre-crisis determinants of post-crisis performance, such as growth in private credit, ratios of short-term debt to GDP, reserves to short-term debt and reserves to GDP, capital account restrictions, total capital inflows, trade openness, current account balance and exchange rate flexibility, or post-crisis drivers such as the growth performance of trading partners and changes in terms of trade. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates.Inflation targeting; economic crisis; monetary policy; Great Recession

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that relative to other countries, IT countries lowered nominal policy rates by more and this loosening translated into an even larger differential in real interest rates; were less likely to face deflation scares; and saw sharp real depreciations not associated with a greater perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT countries have had relatively stronger industrial production performance. Finally, we find that advanced IT countries had higher GDP growth rates than their non-IT peers, but no such difference for emerging countries or the full sample

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible pre-crisis determinants of post-crisis performance, such as growth in private credit, ratios of short-term debt to GDP, reserves to short-term debt and reserves to GDP, capital account restrictions, total capital inflows, trade openness, current account balance and exchange rate flexibility, or post-crisis drivers such as the growth performance of trading partners and changes in terms of trade. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible pre-crisis determinants of post-crisis performance, such as growth in private credit, ratios of short-term debt to GDP, reserves to short-term debt and reserves to GDP, capital account restrictions, total capital inflows, trade openness, current account balance and exchange rate flexibility, or post-crisis drivers such as the growth performance of trading partners and changes in terms of trade. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates

Household income as a determinant of child labor and school enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a social security reform

This paper studies the effects of household income on labor participation and school enrollment of children aged 10 to 14 in Brazil using a social security reform as a source of exogenous variation in household income. We find that increased benefits are associated with increases in school enrollment for girls, as well as a smaller reduction in their labor participation, but find no effects for boys. We also uncover evidence that the gender of the benefit receiver matters for girls’ labor variables: only benefits received by females reduce girls’ work

The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in “real” inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor

Desempenho educacional: foi tudo determinado 100 anos atrás?

Este artigo tem como tema a persistência institucional no desenvolvimento econômico de longo prazo. Nós investigamos o desempenho histórico da educação em uma das sociedades de maior crescimento e maior nível de desigualdade no século XX – o estado de São Paulo. Apoiados em evidências detalhadas sobre a propriedade da terra e educação, nós avaliamos o papel de fatores como concentração da terra, imigração e o tipo de atividade econômica na determinação da oferta e demanda de educação no início do século XX, bem como o grau em que tais fatores podem contribuir para explicar o desempenho educacional e os níveis de renda per capita nos dias de hoje. Nós chegamos a dois resultados centrais: um efeito positivo e duradouro da presença de imigrantes, bem como um impacto negativo da concentração da terra sobre a oferta de educação. Trabalhadores agrícolas imigrantes estabeleceram escolas comunitárias, pressionaram por financiamento público para essas escolas ou, ainda, reivindicaram a abertura de escolas públicas. Os efeitos do aumento inicial da instrução pública elementar podem ser detectados mais de 100 anos depois na forma de melhor desempenho no ensino secundário e maiores níveis de renda per capita nos municípios de São Paulo. Esses resultados sugerem um mecanismo adicional que gerou maior desigualdade entre regiões: aquelas regiões que receberam imigrantes oriundos de países em que a educação pública já havia se estabelecido beneficiaram-se da adoção da ideia revolucionária da educação pública