Ex-ante methods to assess the impact of social insurance policies on labor supply with an application to Brazil

This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the unemployment benefits and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal Vs. informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distribution of an exogenous shock that affects movements in and out of the social security system (given individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of a given cohort across states (in or out of the social security / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian SI system today might generate distortions (lower savings rates and less formal employment) that increase the costs of the system and might generate regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the unemployment benefits and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then combining matching contributions and anti-poverty targeted transfers to cover individuals with limited or no savings capacity.,Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Emerging Markets

Ex-ante methods to assess the impact of social insurance policies on labor supply with an application to Brazil

This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the unemployment benefits and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal versus informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distribution of an exogenous shock that affects movements in and out of the social insurance system (given individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of a given cohort across states (in or out of the social insurance / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel, benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian social insurance system today might generate unnecessary distortions (lower savings rates and less formal employment) that increase the costs of the system and can induce regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the unemployment benefits and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then combining matching contributions and anti-poverty targeted transfers to cover individuals with limited or no savings capacity.Pensions&Retirement Systems,Emerging Markets,Labor Policies,Labor Markets,Debt Markets

Unions and the Economic Performanceof Brazilian Establishments

Using a pooled sample, this paper indicates that unions seem to affect the economic performance of Brazilian establishments, especially in terms of profitability, employment and productivity. Unions tend to reduce profitability, whereas the relationship between union density and productivity, employment and average wages seems to be concave. These performance indicators first rise with union density up to a certain density level (usually about 50 percent) and then start to decline. These results indicate that some unionism may be good for the plants` economic performance, although too much unionism may start having negative effects.

Unions and the Economic Performance of Brazilian Establishments

Using a pooled sample, this paper indicates that unions seem to affect the economic performance of Brazilian establishments, especially in terms of profitability, employment and productivity. Unions tend to reduce profitability, whereas the relationship between union density and productivity, employment and average wages seems to be concave. These performance indicators first rise with union density up to a certain density level (usually about 50 percent) and then start to decline. These results indicate that some unionism may be good for the plants' economic performance, although too much unionism may start having negative effects.

What Difference Do Unions Make?: Their Impact on Productivity and Wages in Latin America

The subject of labor unions in Latin America provokes a variety of diverse and strongly held views. While some see unions as a way to protect workers' rights and ensure an equitable distribution of income, others see unions as a drain of productivity or an intrusion of politics into the workplace. In spite of these strong opinions, the effects of unions in Latin America have received little empirical attention. This book represents one of the first attempts to obtain evidence on union effects in the region. Following an examination of union density across countries, the studies in this volume evaluate the impact of unions on private-sector firm performance, agricultural productivity, and educational outcomes in public school systems. Unions' effects are considered in detail for Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay, as well as the less-studied case of Guatemala. Some of the findings are surprising and may help provide a basis for policies that better address the concerns of workers, employers and the public at large

What Difference Do Unions Make?: Their Impact on Productivity and Wages in Latin America

The subject of labor unions in Latin America provokes a variety of diverse and strongly held views. While some see unions as a way to protect workers' rights and ensure an equitable distribution of income, others see unions as a drain of productivity or an intrusion of politics into the workplace. In spite of these strong opinions, the effects of unions in Latin America have received little empirical attention. This book represents one of the first attempts to obtain evidence on union effects in the region. Following an examination of union density across countries, the studies in this volume evaluate the impact of unions on private-sector firm performance, agricultural productivity, and educational outcomes in public school systems. Unions' effects are considered in detail for Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay, as well as the less-studied case of Guatemala. Some of the findings are surprising and may help provide a basis for policies that better address the concerns of workers, employers and the public at large