The impact of a network split on cascading failure processes

Cascading failure models are typically used to capture the phenomenon where failures possibly trigger further failures in succession, causing knock-on effects. In many networks this ultimately leads to a disintegrated network where the failure propagation continues independently across the various components. In order to gain insight in the impact of network splitting on cascading failure processes, we extend a well-established cascading failure model for which the number of failures obeys a power-law distribution. We assume that a single line failure immediately splits the network in two components, and examine its effect on the power-law exponent. The results provide valuable qualitative insights that are crucial first steps towards understanding more complex network splitting scenarios

Black hole mergers in the universe

Mergers of black-hole binaries are expected to release large amounts of energy in the form of gravitational radiation. However, binary evolution models predict merger rates too low to be of observational interest. In this paper we explore the possibility that black holes become members of close binaries via dynamical interactions with other stars in dense stellar systems. In star clusters, black holes become the most massive objects within a few tens of millions of years; dynamical relaxation then causes them to sink to the cluster core, where they form binaries. These black-hole binaries become more tightly bound by superelastic encounters with other cluster members, and are ultimately ejected from the cluster. The majority of escaping black-hole binaries have orbital periods short enough and eccentricities high enough that the emission of gravitational radiation causes them to coalesce within a few billion years. We predict a black-hole merger rate of about $1.6 \times 10^{-7}$ per year per cubic megaparsec, implying gravity wave detection rates substantially greater than the corresponding rates from neutron star mergers. For the first generation Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO-I), we expect about one detection during the first two years of operation. For its successor LIGO-II, the rate rises to roughly one detection per day. The uncertainties in these numbers are large. Event rates may drop by about an order of magnitude if the most massive clusters eject their black hole binaries early in their evolution.Comment: 12 pages, ApJL in pres

McScatter: a Simple Three-Body Scattering Package with Stellar Evolution

We describe a simple computer package which illustrates a method of combining stellar dynamics with stellar evolution. Though the method is intended for elaborate applications (especially the dynamical evolution of rich star clusters) it is illustrated here in the context of three-body scattering, i.e. interactions between a binary star and a field of single stars. We describe the interface between the dynamics and the two independent packages which describe the internal evolution of single stars and binaries. We also give an example application, and introduce a stand alone utility for the visual presentation of simulation results.Comment: 16 pages, Accepted for publication in New Astronomy. Source codes available at: http://manybody.org/manybody/McScatter.html and http://www.manybody.org/manybody/roche.htm

Mixing in massive stellar mergers

The early evolution of dense star clusters is possibly dominated by close interactions between stars, and physical collisions between stars may occur quite frequently. Simulating a stellar collision event can be an intensive numerical task, as detailed calculations of this process require hydrodynamic simulations in three dimensions. We present a computationally inexpensive method in which we approximate the merger process, including shock heating, hydrodynamic mixing and mass loss, with a simple algorithm based on conservation laws and a basic qualitative understanding of the hydrodynamics of stellar mergers. The algorithm relies on Archimedes' principle to dictate the distribution of the fluid in the stable equilibrium situation. We calibrate and apply the method to mergers of massive stars, as these are expected to occur in young and dense star clusters. We find that without the effects of microscopic mixing, the temperature and chemical composition profiles in a collision product can become double-valued functions of enclosed mass. Such an unphysical situation is mended by simulating microscopic mixing as a post-collision effect. In this way we find that head-on collisions between stars of the same spectral type result in substantial mixing, while mergers between stars of different spectral type, such as type B and O stars ($\sim$10 and $\sim$40\msun respectively), are subject to relatively little hydrodynamic mixing.Comment: Accepted by MNRA

Marketing strategies to utilise Central Otago's resources

Paper presented at the 48th New Zealand Grassland Association Conference, 3-6 November 1986, Alexandra.This paper provides an overview of trends in marketing at the national level and in regions such as Central Otago. The movement away from centrally co-ordinated marketing strategies and ihe increased sophistication of marketing and processing are highlighted. Such developments have implications for the structure of the agricultural and horticultural marketing systems. It is suggested that there is a requirement for improved strategy development and planning by individual firms. This can best be aided at the national level, by considering ways in which the planning by individual firms can be improved. Several specific areas in which improvements could be made are discussed

The solar siblings in the Gaia era

We perform realistic simulations of the Sun's birth cluster in order to predict the current distribution of solar siblings in the Galaxy. We study the possibility of finding the solar siblings in the Gaia catalogue by using only positional and kinematic information. We find that the number of solar siblings predicted to be observed by Gaia will be around 100 in the most optimistic case, and that a phase space only search in the Gaia catalogue will be extremely difficult. It is therefore mandatory to combine the chemical tagging technique with phase space selection criteria in order to have any hope of finding the solar siblings.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of the GREAT-ITN conference "The Milky Way Unravelled by Gaia: GREAT Science from the Gaia Data Releases", 1-5 December 2014, University of Barcelona, Spain, EAS Publications Series, eds Nicholas Walton, Francesca Figueras, and Caroline Soubira

How many young star clusters exist in the Galactic center?

We study the evolution and observability of young compact star clusters within about 200pc of the Galactic center. Calculations are performed using direct N-body integration on the GRAPE-4, including the effects of both stellar and binary evolution and the external influence of the Galaxy. The results of these detailed calculations are used to calibrate a simplified model applicable over a wider range of cluster initial conditions. We find that clusters within 200 pc from the Galactic center dissolve within about 70 Myr. However, their projected densities drop below the background density in the direction of the Galactic center within 20 Myr, effectively making these clusters undetectable after that time. Clusters farther from the Galactic center but at the same projected distance are more strongly affected by this selection effect, and may go undetected for their entire lifetimes. Based on these findings, we conclude that the region within 200 pc of the Galactic center could easily harbor some 50 clusters with properties similar to those of the Arches or the Quintuplet systems.Comment: ApJ Letters in pres