MANAGING MACROECONOMIC RISKS BY USING STATISTICAL SIMULATION

The paper analyzes the possibilities of using statistical simulation in the macroeconomic risks measurement. At the level of the whole world, macroeconomic risks are, due to the excessive imbalance, significantly increased. Using analytical statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation, the authors interpret the collected data sets, compare and analyze them in order to mitigate potential risks. The empirical part of the study is a qualitative case study that uses statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation for managing macroeconomic risks, which is the central theme of this work. Application of statistical simulation is necessary because the system, for which it is necessary to specify the model, is too complex for an analytical approach. The objective of the paper is to point out the previous need for consideration of significant macroeconomic risks, particularly in terms of the number of the unemployed in the society, the movement of gross domestic product and the country’s credit rating, and the use of data previously processed by statistical methods, through statistical simulation, to analyze the existing model of managing the macroeconomic risks and suggest elements for a management model development that will allow, with the lowest possible probability and consequences, the emergence of the recent macroeconomic risks. The stochastic characteristics of the system, defined by random variables as input values defined by probability distributions, require the performance of a large number of iterations on which to record the output of the model and calculate the mathematical expectations. The paper expounds the basic procedures and techniques of discrete statistical simulation applied to systems that can be characterized by a number of events which represent a set of circumstances that have caused a change in the system’s state and the possibility of its application in the field of assessment of macroeconomic risks. The method has no limitations. It can be used to study very complex systems by using special computer programs. The method uses reasonable estimates for important economic inputs to determine a set of results, not only one outcome at one point in time, yet there is a multiple-possibilities estimation of a certain risk performance, regarding the range of economic variables used in the model. Attempt to influence and influence itself on certain macroeconomic risks, in today’s economy, occupies one of the primary imperatives of the world, therefore, this paper deals with the mutual correlation and application of statistical simulations in macroeconomic risks measurement in order to better prevention and remediation

Secondary Hypertension due to Isolated Interrupted Aortic Arch in a 60-Year-Old Person – One-Year Follow up

Interrupted aortic arch (IAA) is a congenital defect characterized by loss of luminal continuity between the ascending and descending aorta1. It is a rare malformation with an estimated incidence of perinatally diagnosed cases of 3 per million live births3. The condition is considered extremely rare in adults. However, its true prevalence in this population is unknown. We have found 30 case reports of IAA in adults in literature, 5 of whom were older than 50 years. Four of them had type A IAA. Arterial hypertension is a typical co-morbidity. In this report we describe a 60-year-old male patient who had a type A asymptomatic IAA. Although we initially suspected the aortic coarctation, further invasive procedures revealed complete interruption of the aortic arch just distal to the origin of the left subclavian artery. The patient underwent surgical repair, followed by full recovery and near-normalization of blood pressure

P2RY12 Gene Polymorphisms and Effect of Clopidogrel on Platelet Aggregation

Objective of this study was to assess platelet response to clopidogrel and its association with certain single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the P2RY12 gene. Several studies have shown that patients with poor in vitro response to clopidogrel have worse outcomes after coronary interventions. Pharmacological response to clopidogrel is mediated by the P2Y12 platelet receptor, therefore, SNPs of the P2RY12 gene may account for some of the observed variability in the cardiovascular risk. Fifty patients with stable coronary heart disease, undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were included in this study. Response to clopidogrel was analysed using light transmitted aggregometry before, and 5 days after the initation of therapy. SNPs analysed: c.–15+742C>T, c.–180+2739T>C and c.18C>T. A higher proportion of non-responders to clopidogrel were noted in carriers of 18C>T[T/T] (p=0.05), and lower prevalence in carriers of 742C>T[T/T] (p=0.05). Participants with 742C>T[T/T] had significantly higher change in aggregation compared to other 742C>T variants ([C/C]=20.5±21.9%; [C/T]=20.0±31.2%; [T/T]=48.6±21.3%; p=0.03). Those carrying 18C>T[T/T] had smaller change in aggregation (7.6±15.0%) compared to other variants, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.15). Analysis of variance showed 18C>T[T/T] was a statistically significant predictor of poor response to antiaggregation therapy, independent from other clinical and demographic variables. There was no relation between poor response to clopidogrel and any other genetic variant. Our results suggest that 18C>T SNP of the P2RY12 gene may be an independent predictor of pharmacological response to clopidogrel. Larger prospective studies are needed to confirm this link and assess its possible clinical consequences

P2RY12 Gene Polymorphisms and Effect of Clopidogrel on Platelet Aggregation

Objective of this study was to assess platelet response to clopidogrel and its association with certain single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the P2RY12 gene. Several studies have shown that patients with poor in vitro response to clopidogrel have worse outcomes after coronary interventions. Pharmacological response to clopidogrel is mediated by the P2Y12 platelet receptor, therefore, SNPs of the P2RY12 gene may account for some of the observed variability in the cardiovascular risk. Fifty patients with stable coronary heart disease, undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were included in this study. Response to clopidogrel was analysed using light transmitted aggregometry before, and 5 days after the initation of therapy. SNPs analysed: c.–15+742C>T, c.–180+2739T>C and c.18C>T. A higher proportion of non-responders to clopidogrel were noted in carriers of 18C>T[T/T] (p=0.05), and lower prevalence in carriers of 742C>T[T/T] (p=0.05). Participants with 742C>T[T/T] had significantly higher change in aggregation compared to other 742C>T variants ([C/C]=20.5±21.9%; [C/T]=20.0±31.2%; [T/T]=48.6±21.3%; p=0.03). Those carrying 18C>T[T/T] had smaller change in aggregation (7.6±15.0%) compared to other variants, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.15). Analysis of variance showed 18C>T[T/T] was a statistically significant predictor of poor response to antiaggregation therapy, independent from other clinical and demographic variables. There was no relation between poor response to clopidogrel and any other genetic variant. Our results suggest that 18C>T SNP of the P2RY12 gene may be an independent predictor of pharmacological response to clopidogrel. Larger prospective studies are needed to confirm this link and assess its possible clinical consequences

Brašno - Kruh '13

The "Flour-Bread '13“ Congress topics were the following: breeding and quality of cereal grains, grain storage and milling technology, analytical and rheological methods, baking technology, improvers and additives, starch and modified starch, extrusion and pasta production, biscuit and pastry products, nutritional quality of cereals, cereal food safety and cereal based functional foods