Optimal design of dilution experiments under volume constraints

The paper develops methods to construct a one-stage optimal design of dilution experiments under the total available volume constraint typical for bio-medical applications. We consider various design criteria based on the Fisher information both is Bayesian and non-Bayasian settings and show that the optimal design is typically one-atomic meaning that all the dilutions should be of the same size. The main tool is variational analysis of functions of a measure and the corresponding steepest descent type numerical methods. Our approach is generic in the sense that it allows for inclusion of additional constraints and cost components, like the cost of materials and of the experiment itself.Comment: 29 pages, 10 figure

Bit flipping and time to recover

We call `bits' a sequence of devices indexed by positive integers, where every device can be in two states: $0$ (idle) and $1$ (active). Start from the `ground state' of the system when all bits are in $0$-state. In our first Binary Flipping (BF) model, the evolution of the system is the following: at each time step choose one bit from a given distribution $\mathcal{P}$ on the integers independently of anything else, then flip the state of this bit to the opposite. In our second Damaged Bits (DB) model a `damaged' state is added: each selected idling bit changes to active, but selecting an active bit changes its state to damaged in which it then stays forever. In both models we analyse the recurrence of the system's ground state when no bits are active. We present sufficient conditions for both BF and DB models to show recurrent or transient behaviour, depending on the properties of $\mathcal{P}$. We provide a bound for fractional moments of the return time to the ground state for the BF model, and prove a Central Limit Theorem for the number of active bits for both models

Stability for random measures, point processes and discrete semigroups

Discrete stability extends the classical notion of stability to random elements in discrete spaces by defining a scaling operation in a randomised way: an integer is transformed into the corresponding binomial distribution. Similarly defining the scaling operation as thinning of counting measures we characterise the corresponding discrete stability property of point processes. It is shown that these processes are exactly Cox (doubly stochastic Poisson) processes with strictly stable random intensity measures. We give spectral and LePage representations for general strictly stable random measures without assuming their independent scattering. As a consequence, spectral representations are obtained for the probability generating functional and void probabilities of discrete stable processes. An alternative cluster representation for such processes is also derived using the so-called Sibuya point processes, which constitute a new family of purely random point processes. The obtained results are then applied to explore stable random elements in discrete semigroups, where the scaling is defined by means of thinning of a point process on the basis of the semigroup. Particular examples include discrete stable vectors that generalise discrete stable random variables and the family of natural numbers with the multiplication operation, where the primes form the basis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ301 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Nonparametric estimation of infinitely divisible distributions based on variational analysis on measures

The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on series decomposition of functionals of a measure and relies on the steepest descent technique recently developed in variational analysis of measures. Simulation studies demonstrate applicability domain of our methods and how they positively compare and complement the existing techniques. They are particularly suited for discrete compounding distributions, not necessarily concentrated on a grid nor on the positive or negative semi-axis. They also give good results for continuous distributions provided an appropriate smoothing is used for the obtained atomic measure

On the capacity functional of the infinite cluster of a Boolean model

Consider a Boolean model in $\R^d$ with balls of random, bounded radii with distribution $F_0$, centered at the points of a Poisson process of intensity $t>0$. The capacity functional of the infinite cluster $Z_\infty$ is given by \theta_L(t) = \BP\{ Z_\infty\cap L\ne\emptyset\}, defined for each compact $L\subset\R^d$. We prove for any fixed $L$ and $F_0$ that $\theta_L(t)$ is infinitely differentiable in $t$, except at the critical value $t_c$; we give a Margulis-Russo type formula for the derivatives. More generally, allowing the distribution $F_0$ to vary and viewing $\theta_L$ as a function of the measure $F:=tF_0$, we show that it is infinitely differentiable in all directions with respect to the measure $F$ in the supercritical region of the cone of positive measures on a bounded interval. We also prove that $\theta_L(\cdot)$ grows at least linearly at the critical value. This implies that the critical exponent known as $\beta$ is at most 1 (if it exists) for this model. Along the way, we extend a result of H.~Tanemura (1993), on regularity of the supercritical Boolean model in $d \geq 3$ with fixed-radius balls, to the case with bounded random radii.Comment: 23 pages, 24 references, 1 figure in Annals of Applied Probability, 201

Branching-stable point processes

The notion of stability can be generalised to point processes by defining the scaling operation in a randomised way: scaling a configuration by t corresponds to letting such a configuration evolve according to a Markov branching particle system for -log(t) time. We prove that these are the only stochastic operations satisfying basic associativity and distributivity properties and we thus introduce the notion of branching-stable point processes. For scaling operations corresponding to particles that branch but do not diffuse, we characterise stable distributions as thinning stable point processes with multiplicities given by the quasi stationary (or Yaglom) distribution of the branching process under consideration. Finally we extend branching-stability to continuous random variables with the help of continuous branching (CB) processes, and we show that, at least in some frameworks, branching-stable integer random variables are exactly Cox (doubly stochastic Poisson) random variables driven by corresponding CB-stable continuous random variables

Populations in environments with a soft carrying capacity are eventually extinct

Consider a population whose size changes stepwise by its members reproducing or dying (disappearing), but is otherwise quite general. Denote the initial (non-random) size by $Z_0$ and the size of the $n$th change by $C_n$, $n= 1, 2, \ldots$. Population sizes hence develop successively as $Z_1=Z_0+C_1,\ Z_2=Z_1+C_2$and so on, indefinitely or until there are no further size changes, due to extinction. Extinction is thus assumed final, so that$Z_n=0$implies that$Z_{n+1}=0, without there being any other finite absorbing class of population sizes. We make no assumptions about the time durations between the successive changes. In the real world, or more specific models, those may be of varying length, depending upon individual life span distributions and their interdependencies, the age-distribution at hand and intervening circumstances. Changes may have quite varying distributions. The basic assumption is that there is a {\em carrying capacity}, i.e. a non-negative number K$such that the conditional expectation of the change, given the complete past history, is non-positive whenever the population exceeds the carrying capacity. Further, to avoid unnecessary technicalities, we assume that the change$C_n$ equals -1 (one individual dying) with a conditional (given the past) probability uniformly bounded away from 0. It is a simple and not very restrictive way to avoid parity phenomena, it is related to irreducibility in Markov settings. The straightforward, but in contents and implications far-reaching, consequence is that all such populations must die out. Mathematically, it follows by a submartingale convergence property and positive probability of reaching the absorbing extinction state.Comment: To appear in J.Math.Bio