The significant influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability to the abrupt warming in Northeast Asia in the 1990s

Abstract Northeast Asia experienced unprecedented abrupt warming in the 1990s since the last century. Based on a robust time series and rank frequency evaluation, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensembles of CMIP5 (MPI-GE5), CMIP6 (MPI-GE6), EC-Earth3 and IPSL-CM6A-LR were identified as the models that best simulate the external forcing and internal variability in observations and represent observations most adequately. The negative-to-positive phase transition of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), combined with the external forcing, can explain 88% [60%−111%] of the 1990s warming. With prescribed anthropogenic emissions in the near future, a phase shift in the AMV to +2 (-2) standard deviation will amplify (weaken) the warming over Northeast Asia by 37% [29%−49%] (19% [15%−25%]). This highlights the importance of natural climate variability in Northeast Asia’s government decision-making and risk management, and emphasizes that only climate models with an adequate representation of forced warming can quantify these contributions correctly

Prognostic significance of NF-κB expression in non-small cell lung cancer: A meta-analysis.

Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB), a key nuclear transcription factor, is associated with prognosis in a variety of human cancers. However, the clinical value of NF-κB in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is still controversial. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to obtain an accurate evaluation of the relationship between NF-κB expression and survival prognosis of NSCLC patients based on published articles. PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were systematically searched for potential articles. A total of 1159 patients from 7 eligible studies comparing prognostic significance of NF-κB expression levels in NSCLC were included in our meta-analysis. I2 statistic and P value were performed to evaluate heterogeneity. The results of analysis were presented as hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity of NSCLC patients and NF-kB cellular localization within cancer cells were conducted to illustrate the potential discrepancy. Significant heterogeneity was considered at I2>50% and P<0.05, and random-effects model was used. The combined results indicated that higher NF-κB expression was associated with shorter overall survival (OS) of NSCLC patients (HR = 2.78, 95% CI = 1.51-5.12, P = 0.001). Moreover, NF-κB expression was closely associated with tumor stage (HR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.18-0.57, P<0.0001), lymph node metastasis (HR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.38-0.83, P = 0.004) and 5-year OS for NSCLC patients (OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.02-3.31, P = 0.04). We conclude that NF-κB expression may be a potential unfavorable prognostic marker for NSCLC patients

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming

Abstract Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe

Land surface air temperature variations over Eurasia and possible causes in the past century

In this study, the variations of annual land surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and the northern part of Africa (0 degrees-180 degrees E, 0 degrees-90 degrees N) were investigated using monthly SAT data from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia for 1901-2014 and the simulations from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model. The observed results suggested that the SAT variations exhibited robust non-uniform spatial features at multi-time scales. For the variations in inter-annual to decadal time scales (IDV), the intensity generally increased from south to north, with the strongest intensity being around Siberia and four times that of the weakest intensity found around China. The IDV leading pattern showed a north-south dipole across 40 degrees N. The simulated results suggested that the north-south dipole and the northwards increase of the IDV were due to internal interactions within the complex nonlinear climate system, but the natural and greenhouse gas forcings could intensify the IDV. The warming trend of the SAT was generally homogeneous, but it showed distinctive multi-decadal fluctuations in different regions. The linear secular trends and robust multi-decadal variation around Siberia and China corresponded to the considerable acceleration and deceleration in the warming over the two regions, respectively. The warming around Siberia was mainly caused by greenhouse gases but its modulation due to natural forcing was also considerable because of the robust multi-decadal variations. Around China, the multi-decadal variation, contributed by the natural forcing, can explain more than half the variances in the warming. The warming trend around central Asia was intense and parabolic, and the multi-decadal variation over there was weak and showed few modulating effects

Sensitivity analyses.

<p>(A) Overall survival in NSCLC patients. (B) Tumor stage. (C) Lymph node metastasis.</p

Forest plot for the association of NF-κB with clinicopathological parameters.

<p>(A) Patients with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. (B) Patients with tumor stage T1/T2 and T3/T4. (C) Patients with or without lymph node metastasis. OR, Odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.</p

Flow illustration for studies selection process.

<p>Flow illustration for studies selection process.</p

Forest plot for the association between NF-κB and overall survival in NSCLC patients.

<p>(A) Overall analysis of all NSCLC patients. (B) Subgroup analysis of Asian and Caucasian NSCLC patients. HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.</p