The economic impact of COVID-19 on the EU: From the frying pan into the fire. EPC Discussion Paper 23 April 2020

For the time being, the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will, for obvious reasons related to the devastating effects of the virus, continue to be at the forefront of public policy. However, the concerns over its economic impact are already omnipresent, too. One of the great uncertainties of this crisis is the nature of its long-term economic impact. It will most certainly be bad, and almost certainly be worse than the financial and economic crisis of a decade ago, with many referring to the Great Depression of the 1930s

Why the EU will have an industrial policy - but not necessarily a good one. EPC Commentary, 18 July 2017

How best to support its industry has been a perennial issue for the European Union (EU). The Commission’s approach has been an attempt to mainstream industrial competitiveness across policy areas. But this hardly constitutes an adequate strategic industrial policy. The EU and its members must recognise that current global pressures require a common and forward-looking approach to ensure that European industry can thrive

What kind of Brexit? EPC Commentary, 4 November 2016

The ruling of the High Court in the UK has rekindled hope for the opponents of Brexit. Some are envisaging a rejection of Brexit by Westminster, a general election that will return a strong Remain vote or even a new referendum, reversing the result of the first one. This ruling is not yet the final decision: an appeal to the Supreme Court seems certain. But even if it is upheld, the most likely final destination is still a hard Brexit

Reality bites: the Brexit negotiations seen from the other side of the Channel. EPC Commentary, 24 July 2017

The Brexit negotiations continued this week with the UK government still insisting that the endpoint be an exit from the EU, including its Customs Union and the Single Market. But back in Britain, the turmoil is obvious, with different members of government taking diverging views, suggesting, at times, that a soft Brexit or a transition arrangement might be possible, even if it means concessions on the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), the exit payment, the rights of EU citizens and even (temporarily) continued freedom of movement of EU citizens

Britain outside Europe? Fewer EU concessions to UK post-Brexit. EPC Commentary, 12 May 2014

Despite their differences and the difficulties in the EU-UK relationship, the UK has played a significant role in many areas of EU integration for more than 40 years. While determining the exact impact of a British withdrawal from the EU is difficult, one can list a number of areas in which undoubtedly Brexit would have a profoundly negative impact on the EU, and an even greater negative impact on the UK itself. Brexit would also radically change the way the EU functions by changing the EU’s main institutions, creating a series of alterations that would not in the end necessarily be wholly detrimental to the union

What kind of divorce: a clean, hard Brexit or a messy, confrontational Brexfast? EPC Commentary, 9 March 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May is attending her final European Union (EU) Summit before the Article 50 negotiations are triggered, almost nine months after the referendum vote. The perceived wisdom is that the proceeding by which United Kingdom (UK) will leave the EU will take at least the two years specified in the EU Treaties, with some arguing that this period might have to be extended (which would need to be decided unanimously by the EU27), given the sheer difficulty and scope of issues that will need to be resolved. However, such an extension seems rather unlikely in light of the required unanimity, unless it is a purely technical provision to allow for the ratification of a deal already reached or to conclude on some of the finer details

The UK renegotiation from an EU perspective: the dog that hasn’t yet barked? EPC Commentary, 20 November 2015

Given the potential impact on the EU, the UK‘s in/out referendum and the associated reform agenda should be high up the Brussels agenda. But, curiously, so far there has been little obvious activity in Brussels, with few signs that it has the attention of the EU leadership. During the October Summit there was only a very short discussion of the UK referendum, with David Cameron pledging to set out the UK’s specific issues to be addressed (the EU reform agenda) in writing to President Tusk by early November, which he duly did on 10 November

Brexit: Stumbling over the backstop? EPC Commentary 6 June 2018

Approaching the June European Summit, it is becoming clearer by the day that the UK is not ready yet to move forward substantively. But postponing critical decisions to October increases the risk of no deal despite the dire warnings of leaked Whitehall advice that it could mean shortages of food, fuel and medicine. Business investment is already being hit, and companies are demanding more clarity, especially on the future customs and trading arrangements

The benefits of Union? EPC Commentary, 19 September 2014

Yesterday, as predicted by the polls, the people of Scotland rejected independence, opting to remain part of the United Kingdom, which also means that the EU does not have to face a Scottish application for membership. Some claim that this referendum has buried the question of Scottish independence indefinitely but this debate is probably not over: a UK referendum on EU membership would reopen the independence question, as Scotland tends to see the EU more favourably

Don't let them win. EPC Commentary, 24 November 2015

The terrorist threat has returned to Brussels but this time is different: everyone is feeling on edge and life is still far from normal. There are many that show defiance and, slowly, people in Brussels are returning to school and work, but the sense of threat remains. Unfortunately, this is far from unusual for many cities around Europe, as Paris and many others can testify, and is likely to be replicated again and again, here in Brussels and across the continent