Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

International audienceIn this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996?2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs

MOVES3 Sensitivity Analysis

693JJ319N300053HEPN190021PRThis analysis tested the sensitivity of the latest version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), MOVES3, to various inputs. The analysis focuses on the following county level inputs: hotelling, off-network idle (ONI), average speed distribution, and age distribution as well as additional specific inventory focus areas (light-duty versus heavy-duty vehicles, off-network versus restricted versus unrestricted road types, and urban versus rural road types) in response to the changes made to the four inputs. Sensitivity of each input was assessed by evaluating the range of percent changes of different testing scenarios compared to a reference case emissions inventory. Results showed that age distribution and speed distribution have the greatest sensitivities across the chosen pollutant emission inventories, while ONI and hotelling have modest sensitivities. The results of this sensitivity testing may be of interest to those using MOVES to model onroad emissions of criteria pollutants, air toxics, and greenhouse gases

An Ethnohistorical Perspective on Cheyenne Demography

Administrative censuses of the Southern Cheyenne Indians from 1880,1891, and 1900 permit family reconstitution, identification of residence groups, and comparisons of fertility between monogamous and polygynous women, when the records are approached by ethnohistori cal methods. This approach includes an awareness of the aboriginal adoption practices, kinship system, and naming practices. It is argued that the biases and distortions of administrative records can be effectively corrected to add to our store of information on band and tribal societies.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Prenatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Insult Changes the Distribution and Number of NADPH-Diaphorase Cells in the Cerebellum

Astrogliosis, oligodendroglial death and motor deficits have been observed in the offspring of female rats that had their uterine arteries clamped at the 18th gestational day. Since nitric oxide has important roles in several inflammatory and developmental events, here we evaluated NADPH-diaphorase (NADPH-d) distribution in the cerebellum of rats submitted to this hypoxia-ischemia (HI) model. At postnatal (P) day 9, Purkinje cells of SHAM and non-manipulated (NM) animals showed NADPH-d+ labeling both in the cell body and dendritic arborization in folia 1 to 8, while HI animals presented a weaker labeling in both cellular structures. NADPH-d+ labeling in the molecular (ML), and in both the external and internal granular layer, was unaffected by HI at this age. At P23, labeling in Purkinje cells was absent in all three groups. Ectopic NADPH-d+ cells in the ML of folia 1 to 4 and folium 10 were present exclusively in HI animals. This labeling pattern was maintained up to P90 in folium 10. In the cerebellar white matter (WM), at P9 and P23, microglial (ED1+) NADPH-d+ cells, were observed in all groups. At P23, only HI animals presented NADPH-d labeling in the cell body and processes of reactive astrocytes (GFAP+). At P9 and P23, the number of NADPH-d+ cells in the WM was higher in HI animals than in SHAM and NM ones. At P45 and at P90 no NADPH-d+ cells were observed in the WM of the three groups. Our results indicate that HI insults lead to long-lasting alterations in nitric oxide synthase expression in the cerebellum. Such alterations in cerebellar differentiation might explain, at least in part, the motor deficits that are commonly observed in this model

Disproportionate cardiac hypertrophy during early postnatal development in infants born preterm.

Background Adults born very preterm have increased cardiac mass and reduced function. We investigated whether a hypertrophic phenomenon occurs in later preterm infants and when this occurs during early development. Methods Cardiac ultrasound was performed on 392 infants (33% preterm at mean gestation 34±2 weeks). Scans were performed during fetal development in 137, at birth and 3 months of postnatal age in 200, and during both fetal and postnatal development in 55. Cardiac morphology and function was quantified and computational models created to identify geometric changes. Results At birth, preterm offspring had reduced cardiac mass and volume relative to body size with a more globular heart. By 3 months, ventricular shape had normalized but both left and right ventricular mass relative to body size were significantly higher than expected for postmenstrual age (left 57.8±41.9 vs. 27.3±29.4%, P<0.001; right 39.3±38.1 vs. 16.6±40.8, P=0.002). Greater changes were associated with lower gestational age at birth (left P<0.001; right P=0.001). Conclusion Preterm offspring, including those born in late gestation, have a disproportionate increase in ventricular mass from birth up to 3 months of postnatal age. These differences were not present before birth. Early postnatal development may provide a window for interventions relevant to long-term cardiovascular health

The spatial structure of lithic landscapes : the late holocene record of east-central Argentina as a case study

Fil: Barrientos, Gustavo. División Antropología. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Catella, Luciana. División Arqueología. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Oliva, Fernando. Centro Estudios Arqueológicos Regionales. Facultad de Humanidades y Artes. Universidad Nacional de Rosario; Argentin