Exploring the Department of Defense Software Factbook

The Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute (SEI) conducted an analysis of software engineering data owned and maintained by the Department of Defense (DoD) to produce high-level, DoD-wide heuristics and domain-specific benchmark data. This work yielded basic facts about software projects, such as averages, ranges, and heuristics for requirements, size, effort, and duration. Factual, quantitatively-derived statements were reported to provide users with easily digestible benchmarks. Findings were also presented by system type, or super domain. The analysis in this area focused on identifying the most and least expensive projects and the best and worst projects within three super domains: real time, engineering, and automated information systems. It also provided insight into the differences between system domains and contained domain-specific heuristics. Finally, correlations were explored among requirements, size, duration, and effort and the strongest models for predicting change were described. The goal of this work was to determine how well the data could be used to answer common questions related to planning or replanning software projects. The paper provides a high-level overview of the SEI's research and primary findings.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs.</p

Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

International audienceIn this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996?2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs

Quantifying Uncertainty for Early Life Cycle Cost Estimates

Disclaimer: The views represented in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy position of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the federal government.Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium Cost EstimatingNaval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramPrepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CANaval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Stabilization Points in Carrying Capacity: Population Growth and Migrations

This study focuses on stabilization points in carrying capacity. Using simulations based upon well-known mathematical approaches in theoretical ecology, one calculates carrying capacity out of trends in demographic development.  It is an alternative to most of approaches in Archaeology and Anthropology concerning potential resources and cost of labor. Finally, this approach is also useful for analysis of migrations and site catchments

Comment Letter on the Rulemaking Implementing Section 619 of Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform

Comment Letter on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Implementing Section 619 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consume Protection Ac

The Tri-Party Repo Market before the 2010 Reforms

This paper provides a descriptive and quantitative account of the tri-party repo market before the reforms proposed in 2010 by the Task Force on Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure (Task Force 2010). We provide an extensive description of the mechanics of this market. We also use data from July 2008 to early 2010 to document quantitative features of he market. We find that both the level of haircuts and the amount of funding were surprisingly stable in this market. The stability of the margins is in contrast to evidence from other repo markets. Perhaps surprisingly, the data reveal relatively few signs of stress in the market for dealers other than Lehman Brothers, on which we provide some evidence. This suggests that runs in the tri-party repo market may occur precipitously, like traditional bank runs, rather than manifest themselves as large increases in margins