Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach

This paper makes two important , even if preliminary, methodological contributions to the financial reforms literature. The first contribution is that it introduces a new framework for the metric of sequence analysis, namely, Optimal Matching Sequence Analysis. The second is that it provides an innovative framework namely synthetic counterfactual approach for the assessment of the impact of financial reforms sequence. It shows that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries, affects the level and the volatility of GDP per capita growth.Financial reforms trajectory Mundell trilemma Optimal matching sequence analysis

Stability periods between financial crises : The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

The aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.Financial crises, Finite mixture model, duration, bimodality.

Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach

This paper makes two important , even if preliminary, methodological contributions to the financial reforms literature. The first contribution is that it introduces a new framework for the metric of sequence analysis, namely, Optimal Matching Sequence Analysis. The second is that it provides an innovative framework namely synthetic counterfactual approach for the assessment of the impact of financial reforms sequence. It shows that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries, affects the level and the volatility of GDP per capita growth

Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach

This paper makes two important , even if preliminary, methodological contributions to the financial reforms literature. The first contribution is that it introduces a new framework for the metric of sequence analysis, namely, Optimal Matching Sequence Analysis. The second is that it provides an innovative framework namely synthetic counterfactual approach for the assessment of the impact of financial reforms sequence. It shows that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries, affects the level and the volatility of GDP per capita growth

Stability periods between financial crises : The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

URL des Documents de travail ; http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/documents-de-travail/Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.64 - ISSN : 1955-611XThe aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.L'objectif de cet article est d'identifier les facteurs qui expliquent pourquoi certains pays ont tendance à expérimenter des durées de stabilité financière plus longues que d'autres. A cette fin, en considérant la période 1980-2008, nous analysons la durée de tranquilité séparant respectivement les crises de change, d'endettement et bancaires. En partant du constat que les distributions de la durée séparant l'occurrence des crises de change et celle séparant l'occurrence des crises d'endettement sont bimodales, nous estimons un modéle économétrique du type "modèle de mélange gaussien". Les résultats empiriques suggèrent d'une part qu'en ce qui concerne les crises de change, les variables d'économie réelle et les financières augmentent significativement la qualité prédictive de notre modèle ; d'autre part, que le taux d'intérêt réel est le meilleur "prédicteur" de la durée de tranquilité entre les crises d'endettement. Nous trouvons également que l'ampleur du soutien public au secteur bancaire ainsi que l'adoption des programmes du FMI prolongent la durée de stabilité entre les crises bancaires systémiques mais que les mesures de recapitalisation sont de nature à précipiter l'occurrence de nouvelles crises

Eliminating extreme poverty in Africa: the role of policies and global governance

Serious commitment to eliminating extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa requires a three-pronged approach: Structural transformation: requires stable macroeconomic policies, infrastructure investments and inclusive growth prioritising productive employment. Cautious regional integration: inviting trade and FDI flows to support regional growth. Improved global governance: creating space for meaningful representation of African perspectives

Skills and youth entrepreneurship in Africa: Analysis with evidence from Swaziland

The shortages of entrepreneurial skills have lowered search effectiveness of potential young entrepreneurs and the rate of youth start-ups. Our paper contributes to closing a gap in the entrepreneurship and development literature with a model of costly firm creation and skill differences between young and adult entrepreneurs. The model shows that for young entrepreneurs facing high costs of searching for business opportunities, support for training is more effective in stimulating productive start-ups than subsidies. The case for interventions targeted at youth rises in societies with high costs of youth unemployment. We test the role of skills and training for productive youth entrepreneurship on data from a recent survey of entrepreneurs in Swaziland.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/132976/1/wp1077.pd

CAN DREAMS COME TRUE? ELIMINATING EXTREME POVERTY IN AFRICA BY 2030

With the year 2015 – the MDG finishing line – approaching, post-2015 goals as they impact Africa need to be firmed. The goal of ending extreme poverty remains paramount. Globally, the World Bank set goals to end extreme poverty by 2030 and to promote shared prosperity in every society. We examine feasibility of these objectives for Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest but rapidly rising region. We find that under plausible assumptions on consumption growth and redistribution, eliminating poverty by 2030 is out of the region’s reach. Even under our ‘best case’ scenario of accelerated growth and redistribution from the richest 10 percent to the poorest 40 percent of the population, the poverty rate would still be around 10 percent in 2030. A more realistic goal for the region would be reducing poverty by a range from half to two thirds. At this rate, especially if in part achieved by lowering inequality, the Africa region would meaningfully contribute to the global agenda. Policies need to focus on mutually reinforcing objectives of making growth stronger, resilient to shocks, and inclusive.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/132975/1/wp1076.pd