A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents

The initial input interface of the VB program.

<p>The initial input interface of the VB program.</p

Basic events of the CDE fault tree.

<p>Basic events of the CDE fault tree.</p

Schematics of the CDE fault tree.

<p>(A) General diagram; (B) Details of intermediate event A; (C) Details of intermediate event B.</p

The judgments of the three experts.

<p>The judgments of the three experts.</p

The interface of the VB program after data input.

<p>The interface of the VB program after data input.</p

Weighting scores of different experts.

<p>Weighting scores of different experts.</p

Fuzzy numbers representing linguistic variables.

<p>Fuzzy numbers representing linguistic variables.</p

The procedure and principle of the proposed method.

<p>The procedure and principle of the proposed method.</p

The results output interface of the VB program.

<p>The results output interface of the VB program.</p