Toward a joint modeling of land-use, transport and economy

It is widely accepted that spatial settlement and transportation are closely related: land use changes have impacts on the performance of the transportation network and changes in the transport system have impacts on settlement behavior. In a recent workshop on evaluation of large transport related infrastructure projects, in which research findings in The Netherlands and the UK were compared, it was concluded that determination of indirect effects related to a new spatial equilibrium, remains a challenge in project evaluation. Indirect effects related to large infrastructure projects may well exceed the direct effects. A research project has started at Delft University of Technology to develop a suitable model instrument for a dynamic modeling of the land-use and transportation system and assessment of economic impacts. The research will use and extend the existing MOBILEC model of the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in the Netherlands. The MOBILEC model is an interregional model that describes the relationship between economy, mobility and infrastructure. The model is a neoclassical growth model and uses macroeconomic relationships on the level of regions. In the paper a short overview will be presented of the overall framework for the modeling. Incorporation of the mutual influences of the economy, land-use and transport sectors receive special emphasis in this framework. The economy, transport system, labor market and housing market are endogenous in the modeling. The particular contribution of this dissertation research is the development of a model for the labor and housing market and the integration of these markets in the MOBILEC framework. In the current modeling the scale level of the COROP-regions (40 economical zones in the Netherlands) is used to determine of the real geographic product. In the new version the determination of the real geographic product will remain at the COROP-level, but for the housing an labor market a more detailed scale level will be used. At this detailed scale level the potential or attractiveness of zones for settlement of particular functions will be derived from the characteristics of the location itself and the accessibility to facilities in the region (employment, recreational, etc.). Discrete choice techniques will be used to determine the user preferences for settlement. The labor and housing market module will operate in a dynamic environment with a long term perspective, time increments of 3 years will be used. In the MOBILEC model an extended Cobb-Douglas production function is used to calculate the real geographic product of a region. One of the factors in the function concerns productive traffic. In this way the impact of the productive mobility (freight transport and business traffic) on the regional geographic product can be calculated. The inclusion of the housing market and labor market in the framework creates extra opportunities to analyze land-use and transport related issues, such as: indirect economical impacts as agglomeration effects or labor market imperfections. In the first version the agglomeration effects will be included in the real geographic product. analysis of spatial - and transport policies in an integrated way. analysis of commuter traffic in more detail.

Modelling of residential land-use, in a joint framework of land-use, transport and economy

An evaluation scheme for transport infrastructure projects, presently adopted by the Dutch government, includes a research challenge to develop a spatial-economic model addressing the indirect impacts of infrastructure measures. Presently several developments in the field of spatial-economic modelling are ongoing in the Netherlands. The Mobilec model is an example of such a development. The Mobilec model is an interregional model, at NUTS3 level, that describes the relationship between productivity, mobility and infrastructure. The current model lacks spatial detail and an adequate modelling of the housing market and labour market. These aspects need to be included to model the location effects. The proposed paper will explore the development of a housing market model, at a spatially detailed level, within the Mobilec framework. The housing market modelling approach should incorporate the context of a strongly regulated housing market in the Netherlands. International state-of-the-art housing market modelling approaches, commonly used in the so-called LUTS models, will be used as starting point of the analysis. In the paper the outline of the residential location model will be presented and some first experiences with a test version of the housing market model in association with Mobilec will be reported.

Integrated planning of water and land-use

The role of water in spatial planning has received increasing attention in recent years. It was, for example, one of the leading motives in the preparation of the latest National Spatial Planning Note for The Netherlands. For the preparation of such spatial plans, and to support the associated policy analysis, there is a need to fully identify and characterize the interactions between the water sector and spatial planning and establish the process for making consistent joint projections for the water sector and land-use. This should account for spatial claims from the water sector, balance those claims with claims from other sectors, and feed back spatial constraints and opportunities. Land-use markets and government policies (translated e.g. in spatial reservations) form an important input in this balance. Modeling is indispensable to keep track of spatial characteristics and trace changes. Most of the available modeling considers a layered structure with a layer for national/regional projections and a GIS based layer to keep track of land use changes. Basically such model makes a distribution (rule based) of the national projections into the GIS based spatial raster, followed by an impact assessment based on the changes in the raster. Those models are generally weak in representing the processes driving land use changes such as the housing and labor market and – the water sector. The challenge remains to set up a suitable module covering these spatial - and water sector development processes. Based on the experience of the authors with many water studies and the recent development of a space-transport modeling tool (integration of transport and land-use), a sketch will be made of the requirements for such module. The scope for such planning tool will be illustrated (with data for The Netherlands), addressing key aspects such as competition for space, costs, risk, and environmental impact.

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