A REPRESENTATIVE FARM APPROACH TO OUTREACH WITH BEGINNING FARMERS AND RANCHERS

Beginning Farmers and Ranchers, Representative Farm, Whole Farm Analysis, Risk Management, Online Decision Support, Stochastic, Baseline, Farm Management, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, Q12, Q14, D81,

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2005 Baseline.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2005 U.S. Baseline.This material is based on work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement no. 2004-34228-14502

Mid-Year Farm Level Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2005-2009

This report presents an updated five-year outlook for the set of 40 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI August 2005 Baseline.This material is based on work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement no. 2004-34228-14502

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2004-2008

Missouri farms show financial improvement.This material is based on work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement no. 2003-34228-14003

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2006-2010

This report presents a five-year outlook for the set of 36 Missouri representative farms using the FAPRI 2006 U.S. Baseline.This material is based on work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement no. 2004-34228-14502

Baseline Outlook for Missouri Representative Farms 2003-2007

This report presents a five-year outlook for Missouri representative farms under provisions of the Food Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002.This material is based on work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement no. 2002-34228-11826

Economic Outlook for Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2004 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative cotton farms are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate cotton operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative cotton farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine cotton farms’ economic viability by region through the life of the 2002 Farm Bill. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical price and production risk faced by cotton farmers. This report presents the results of the August 2004 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing annual cash flow deficits and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2008. This report is organized into five sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI August 2004 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third section presents the results of the simulation analyses for cotton farms. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative cotton farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Under the January 2007 Baseline, 20 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2012). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 39 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 30 of the 64 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Nine crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 25 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by commodity considering both liquidity and equity measures.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: 1) Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. 2) Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by agricultural producers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the August 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing producers through the year 2012. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI August 2007 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,