Real-Time, Short And Medium Term Operations Planning Of The BC Hydro System: Modeling Framework And Decision Support Tools

We present a set of real-time, short and medium term optimization modules currently used by operations planning engineers as decision support tools to optimize the operation of the BC Hydro system in British Columbia, Canada. We first present our modeling framework and briefly outline models developed and supported by BC Hydro and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council\u27s (NSERC) in Canada. We also describe our ongoing research and development efforts to extend the decision support tools we have developed under the Grant-In-Aid Agreement with BC Hydro to address reliability of the water passage and control facilities, such as spillway and turbine gates, and to address uncertainty in model inputs that are typically confronted in operating hydropower systems, such as inflows and market prices, and to address flood risk management of small hydro facilities

Reliability Analysis Approach For Operations Planning Of Hydropower Systems

Many existing hydropower storage facilities were built decades ago and components of these aging infrastructure facilities have higher risk of failure. Insufficient capacity or forced outages of the spillway and other waterway passage facilities during flooding incident could potentially increase the probability of dam safety incidents leading to public safety concerns. Currently approaches used to assess the risk and uncertainty in operational decision making are mainly based on qualitative assessment and expert judgment and can be significantly improved by the development of a framework that formally incorporates both qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis methods. Event tree analysis and fault tree analysis have traditionally been used in dam safety risk analysis, with results subject to data adequacy and availability. Our research shows that other methods, such as nonparametric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques can yield good results as well. This study investigated the application of reliability analysis methods to existing hydropower storage facilities, with the objective of developing a new systems engineering based approach for risk and uncertainty analysis to assess and manage the risks of hydropower system operations. Our approach integrates reliability-based methods with hydro system optimization modeling to develop an operational reliability-based modeling framework and to formally treat risk and uncertainty in operations planning. This approach incorporates different sources of uncertainty that are typically encountered in operations planning of these systems, including failure probability of hydro system components such as non-power release structures and turbine facilities. This paper presents the framework we have developed and illustrates the application of our investigation for a hydropower system facility in British Columbia, Canada

A Multi-Objective Optimization Model For Operations Planning Of Multi-Reservoir Systems

This paper presents the development and evaluation of a multi-objective linear programming (LP) optimization tool for an operations planning platform (OPP). The LP optimization model is coded using a high level programming language called AMPL (A Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using a solver called CPLEX. This model was developed by closely working with operations planning engineers at BC Hydro, in Canada, with the support of a research team from the University of British Columbia. The optimization model incorporates two objectives to optimize the operation of a multi reservoir system: maximize revenue from power generation, and to minimize penalties resulting from deviations of reservoir elevations and spill releases from a preferred operating regime. Several multi-objective optimization techniques are being investigated including traditional methods such as the Weighting Method and the Constraint Method, as well as Goal Programming (GP) techniques. These methods would be tested for optimality and computational efficiency and would be generalized and used to study a number of multi-reservoir systems in British Columbia. Stochastic inflows would be considered in the model making use of chance-constraints and probability distribution functions based on historical inflow records. The model also incorporates features which simulate maintenance outages on hydropower plants. The goal is to determine the optimal maintenance schedules that minimize the cost of these outages. We present results of a case study to illustrate the capabilities of the model to provide decision makers with timely information on trade-off between different objectives. Maintenance schedules of generating units with and without optimization are also considered

A decision support system for real-time hydropower scheduling in a competitive power market environment

The electricity supply market is rapidly changing from a monopolistic to a competitive environment. Being able to operate their system of reservoirs and generating facilities to get maximum benefits out of existing assets and resources is important to the British Columbia Hydro Authority (B.C. Hydro). A decision support system has been developed to help B.C. Hydro operate their system in an optimal way. The system is operational and is one of the tools that are currently used by the B.C. Hydro system operations engineers to determine optimal schedules that meet the hourly domestic load and also maximize the value B.C. Hydro obtains from spot transactions in the Western U.S. and Alberta electricity markets. This dissertation describes the development and implementation of the decision support system in production mode. The decision support system consists of six components: the input data preparation routines, the graphical user interface (GUI), the communication protocols, the hydraulic simulation model, the optimization model, and the results display software. A major part of this work involved the development and implementation of a practical and detailed large-scale optimization model that determines the optimal tradeoff between the long-term value of water and the returns from spot trading transactions in real-time operations. The postmortem-testing phase showed that the gains in value from using the model accounted for 0.25% to 1.0% o f the revenues obtained. The financial returns from using the decision support system greatly outweigh the costs of building it. Other benefits are the savings in the time needed to prepare the generation and trading schedules. The system operations engineers now can use the time saved to focus on other important aspects of their job. The operators are currently experimenting with the system in production mode, and are gradually gaining confidence that the advice it provides is accurate, reliable and sensible. The main lesson learned from developing and implementing the system was that there is no alternative to working very closely with the intended end-users of the system, and with the people who have deep knowledge, experience and understanding of how the system is and should be operated.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat

Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach

Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management approaches. This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector. The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way. This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water management.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat

A Practical Hydro, Dynamic Unit Commitment and Loading Model

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